TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Movies · resolved market

Will "They Will Kill You" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 5m and 6m?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$63,906
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$56,397

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $63,906 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 113 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Movies
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x3106…23a8backed Yes11c5,335$599 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$598.87742.9%3 W · 4 L+1.1wins+0.16per pick27cpaid+13.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf2f5…137ebacked Yes37c4,377$1,604 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,603.9323321.5%50 W · 183 L+1.2wins0.00per pick21cpaid-34%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x682d…4cd6backed Yes1c4,062$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.8832814.9%49 W · 279 L+14.2wins+0.04per pick11cpaid-59.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb413…1cb7backed Yes20c3,667$750 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7504211.9%5 W · 37 L0.0wins0.00per pick12cpaid-45.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf86c…ba99backed Yes34c2,619$895 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$894.5814530.3%44 W · 101 L-5.1wins-0.04per pick34cpaid-29.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4da7…355ebacked Yes18c2,000$360 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3607538.7%29 W · 46 L+1.4wins+0.02per pick37cpaid-2.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x9199…dd2dbacked No77c1,790$1,374 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$415.9432739.1%128 W · 199 L+7.4wins+0.02per pick37cpaid-15.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x74e0…fabdbacked Yes17c1,633$272 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$272.4228524.2%69 W · 216 L-8.3wins-0.03per pick27cpaid-41.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x45b2…cbc1backed Yes11c1,553$176 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$176.195311.3%6 W · 47 L-1.5wins-0.03per pick14cpaid-26.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf51b…bf74backed Yes47c1,462$689 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$688.62725.9%7 W · 20 L-3.3wins-0.12per pick38cpaid-38%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xefde…65abbacked Yes1c1,452$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.2510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x23ed…aebcbacked Yes1c1,197$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.971811.1%2 W · 16 L-3.0wins-0.17per pick28cpaid-76.6%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x4744…e229backed Yes12c988$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$113.62933.3%3 W · 6 L-0.5wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-39.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x6388…f668backed Yes12c953$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$109.6757.1%4 W · 3 L+1.1wins+0.15per pick42cpaid+31.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0367…1c15backed Yes12c945$109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108.68540%2 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.07per pick33cpaid-24.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x33f8…c5e4backed Yes5c865.81$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.2929423.5%69 W · 225 L+0.4wins0.00per pick23cpaid-43%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8f34…2f50backed No73c842.15$619 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$223.538351.8%43 W · 40 L-2.3wins-0.03per pick55cpaid-24.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9aeb…2729backed Yes49c820.17$399 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$399.3518746%86 W · 101 L+3.2wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-20%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x5028…91c5backed Yes20c741.66$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$149.55555.5%3 W · 52 L-3.4wins-0.06per pick12cpaid-86.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x056f…e487backed Yes14c696.04$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9612030%36 W · 84 L+0.3wins0.00per pick30cpaid-20%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7738…76a4backed Yes2c690.17$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.753915.4%6 W · 33 L-6.1wins-0.16per pick31cpaid-62.1%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xdd7e…275ebacked No53c615$325 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$289.66850%4 W · 4 L+0.7wins+0.09per pick41cpaid+116.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0a6d…1d0abacked No56c597.47$335 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$262.268332.5%27 W · 56 L-2.8wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-38.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdb71…10cdbacked Yes10c579.96$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.92644.7%3 W · 61 L-3.7wins-0.06per pick10cpaid-74.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x8085…ea17backed Yes36c579.15$206 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$206.024938.8%19 W · 30 L+3.8wins+0.08per pick31cpaid-8.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xbe78…c533backed Yes35c576.89$201 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200.7329735.7%106 W · 191 L+2.7wins+0.01per pick35cpaid-22.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaae6…3d05backed No53c575$304 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$270.83850%4 W · 4 L+0.6wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+33.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9774…6d3cbacked No53c568$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$267.531241.7%5 W · 7 L+0.5wins+0.04per pick37cpaid+1.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x681b…8a5abacked Yes9c566.7$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.653339.4%13 W · 20 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-12.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xac4a…bf1ebacked Yes17c496.7$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.4211924.4%29 W · 90 L-4.5wins-0.04per pick28cpaid-45.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0928…9d34backed Yes32c476.02$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150.382832.1%9 W · 19 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick30cpaid-28.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1c26…6e31backed No74c432.64$320 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$112.8116741.9%70 W · 97 L+0.2wins0.00per pick42cpaid-16.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe562…4fa9backed Yes23c419.07$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.4726431.1%82 W · 182 L-2.2wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-18.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe904…2d9fbacked Yes38c390.46$147 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$146.7915149%74 W · 77 L+10.6wins+0.07per pick42cpaid+1.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x2301…7fa8backed No50c379.75$191 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$189.143540%14 W · 21 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-16.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x401e…6fc9backed Yes10c370.71$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.5717540%70 W · 105 L-0.9wins0.00per pick40cpaid-24.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes34c359.66$124 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$123.8619133%63 W · 128 L+0.5wins0.00per pick33cpaid-1.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3b1a…4221backed No71c320.37$227 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$93.743721.6%8 W · 29 L-5.7wins-0.15per pick37cpaid-69.2%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes7c311.98$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.282666.4%17 W · 249 L-13.4wins-0.05per pick11cpaid-52.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x2892…71ddbacked Yes21c302.68$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.9919532.8%64 W · 131 L-3.7wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-21.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xda1b…75d8backed Yes49c299.68$146 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$146425%1 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.18per pick43cpaid+51.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe794…321cbacked Yes47c296$139 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$139.4240%0 W · 4 L-1.8wins-0.44per pick44cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes27c267$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.9413735%48 W · 89 L+3.8wins+0.03per pick32cpaid-35.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x37fc…7717backed Yes12c241.65$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$302825%7 W · 21 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick24cpaid-26.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbeca…e32abacked Yes22c223.21$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501241.7%5 W · 7 L+0.5wins+0.04per pick37cpaid-9.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes8c217$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.841,3938%111 W · 1,282 L-47.9wins-0.03per pick11cpaid-50%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x19db…7636backed Yes50c206.99$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103.365646.4%26 W · 30 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-19.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0ec4…f4a4backed No64c200$128 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$723348.5%16 W · 17 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-25%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc8fb…72cdbacked Yes12c196.89$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.194934.7%17 W · 32 L+1.8wins+0.04per pick31cpaid+12.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xdbb8…f7debacked Yes7c178.64$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.372412.5%3 W · 21 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick10cpaid-31.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x733d…1ae7backed Yes36c169.99$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.2714.3%1 W · 6 L-1.1wins-0.16per pick30cpaid-74.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5095…93eebacked Yes28c156.89$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.3629642.6%126 W · 170 L+22.9wins+0.08per pick35cpaid+1.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xdd38…ddadbacked Yes59c149.99$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.35742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.12per pick55cpaid-32%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0dee…f426backed Yes17c141.49$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.58119.1%1 W · 10 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick13cpaid-88%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2f45…ab6abacked Yes26c136.23$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.63520%1 W · 4 L-1.3wins-0.26per pick46cpaid-73%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed Yes25c134.98$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.2516015.6%25 W · 135 L-26.1wins-0.16per pick32cpaid-70.7%equal weight34-0.14 edge/pick
0x4cfe…1afcbacked Yes54c134.24$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.991258.3%7 W · 5 L+0.7wins+0.06per pick52cpaid+29.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9e62…64a7backed Yes23c132.16$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$301060%6 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick64cpaid-8.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9a41…9a6dbacked Yes23c127$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.3410%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x59d0…eebfbacked Yes16c125$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$203420.6%7 W · 27 L-1.2wins-0.04per pick24cpaid-9.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9e78…495abacked Yes56c121$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.8810%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.56per pick56cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc662…0f0dbacked Yes23c119$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.3710%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x026f…3cfcbacked Yes23c111$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.5310%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x765f…1508backed Yes45c110.77$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.859434%32 W · 62 L-0.1wins0.00per pick34cpaid-22.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6bca…b60abacked Yes49c110$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.811421.9%25 W · 89 L-5.5wins-0.05per pick27cpaid-40.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x478e…a576backed Yes53c109.92$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.72441.7%10 W · 14 L-3.6wins-0.15per pick57cpaid-34.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x73f1…ba5abacked Yes24c101.75$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.4210%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x59e4…c67bbacked Yes11c100$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$116330.2%19 W · 44 L-2.1wins-0.03per pick34cpaid-13.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x17fa…abfbbacked Yes42c100$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$421060%6 W · 4 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick57cpaid-0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6469…c029backed Yes43c100$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.9wins+0.15per pick51cpaid+17.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xda9b…b2a9backed Yes55c87.83$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.051546.7%7 W · 8 L-0.6wins-0.04per pick51cpaid+1.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2482…67b1backed Yes56c80$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.59034.4%31 W · 59 L+3.9wins+0.04per pick30cpaid-12.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x39aa…583cbacked Yes16c78.21$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.7213534.8%47 W · 88 L+2.3wins+0.02per pick33cpaid-8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xfcf2…7279backed Yes64c77.99$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.8413820.3%28 W · 110 L+0.1wins0.00per pick20cpaid+27.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2a5a…4cc4backed Yes17c70.59$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1260%0 W · 6 L-0.8wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes36c70.1$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.520841.8%87 W · 121 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick41cpaid-0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5ae7…3e12backed Yes23c65$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.725151%26 W · 25 L+9.3wins+0.18per pick33cpaid+155.4%equal weight64+0.12 edge/pick
0x2d81…fe57backed Yes50c58.16$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.986150.8%31 W · 30 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick49cpaid-6.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6018…170cbacked Yes23c57.29$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.0313635.3%48 W · 88 L+4.1wins+0.03per pick32cpaid-0.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2a05…8573backed No55c55$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.9wins+0.13per pick44cpaid+21.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa3c2…df3dbacked No66c54.87$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.453461.8%21 W · 13 L+2.8wins+0.08per pick54cpaid+1.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xf4c2…3d54backed No77c51$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.781100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+30%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd6dd…c6b6backed No67c50.89$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.825100%5 W · 0 L+1.3wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+36.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8594…7eedbacked Yes62c50.1$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.055957.6%34 W · 25 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-1.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5224…fe61backed No77c50$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.51100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+29.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1408…b4f8backed No61c49.45$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.4713333.1%44 W · 89 L-10.3wins-0.08per pick41cpaid-41.1%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x5dcb…a119backed No76c46$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.041100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.24per pick76cpaid+31.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2698…2941backed No58c44.22$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.721872.2%13 W · 5 L+1.9wins+0.10per pick62cpaid+18.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9fd8…01f0backed Yes51c43.14$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$221040%4 W · 6 L-1.0wins-0.10per pick50cpaid-10.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdee8…f6babacked No77c43$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.891100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+29.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x592c…ab4dbacked No37c42.92$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.91100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.63per pick37cpaid+167.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x027c…b158backed No48c41$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.32560%3 W · 2 L+1.7wins+0.34per pick26cpaid+85.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x77b5…9170backed No67c36.99$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.0720850%104 W · 104 L-2.6wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-11.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2754…1668backed Yes51c32.63$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.681968.4%13 W · 6 L+1.7wins+0.09per pick60cpaid+17.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4d7c…3e7abacked Yes56c30$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.82944.8%13 W · 16 L-2.9wins-0.10per pick55cpaid-26.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xb233…ae08backed No77c29$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.71100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+30%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2a34…5f4cbacked No77c28$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.441100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+29.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xad9c…56a9backed No76c28$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.72250%1 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.27per pick77cpaid-34.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3d4e…03e5backed No77c28$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.441100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+29.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8068…27edbacked No77c26$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.011100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+30%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.