TailMyPicks
Market

Middle East · resolved market

Will Israel strike 2 countries in December 2025?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$109,493
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$101,749

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $109,493 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 140 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Middle East
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xe092…9f1abacked Yes0c45,229$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.291250%6 W · 6 L+1.6wins+0.14per pick36cpaid+26.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x60a9…5a71backed Yes39c4,883$1,922 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,921.7238237.7%144 W · 238 L+16.4wins+0.04per pick33cpaid-10.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5232…0ec5backed Yes3c4,062$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$114.31616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.5wins-0.25per pick42cpaid-77.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x4122…5c11backed Yes4c3,104$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$125.0620%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xacc8…7d08backed Yes1c1,850$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.873122.6%7 W · 24 L0.0wins0.00per pick23cpaid-32.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x39aa…583cbacked Yes45c1,659$742 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$742.045022%11 W · 39 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick23cpaid-37%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2917…be8fbacked Yes3c1,658$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501942.1%8 W · 11 L-0.7wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-19%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x011b…e44dbacked No79c1,617$1,282 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$334.711662.5%10 W · 6 L+1.7wins+0.11per pick52cpaid+9.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4c2d…f8aebacked Yes18c1,462$263 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$263.1140433.7%136 W · 268 L+12.1wins+0.03per pick31cpaid-14.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9339…a56fbacked Yes4c1,436$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.151540%6 W · 9 L-1.0wins-0.07per pick47cpaid-31.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0845…6b6fbacked Yes2c1,400$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.420438.7%79 W · 125 L-2.9wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-12.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xda42…dc4fbacked Yes1c1,109$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13825%2 W · 6 L0.0wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-62.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf416…6ec9backed No66c1,100$723 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$376.787850%39 W · 39 L+6.0wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+15%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x963a…fc4cbacked Yes56c1,056$590 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5901435.7%5 W · 9 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick38cpaid-44.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x43cf…88fabacked No44c999.98$440 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$559.998145.7%37 W · 44 L+6.2wins+0.08per pick38cpaid+25.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x8f42…b88fbacked No61c795.97$482 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$313.9436750.4%185 W · 182 L+39.6wins+0.11per pick40cpaid+26.5%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xcf95…7865backed Yes32c642.42$206 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$206.1415324.8%38 W · 115 L+2.4wins+0.02per pick23cpaid-13.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4d1d…5aa0backed Yes7c578.14$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.121926.5%58 W · 161 L+12.7wins+0.06per pick21cpaid+76.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x1022…d9d1backed Yes52c556.99$287 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$287.41944.4%4 W · 5 L+0.5wins+0.06per pick39cpaid+6.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xb8fe…ce76backed Yes54c552.89$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$299.9917740.7%72 W · 105 L+13.9wins+0.08per pick33cpaid+36%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x0dcc…5bd9backed Yes16c522.81$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.54933.3%3 W · 6 L+0.7wins+0.08per pick26cpaid-15.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe738…df65backed No57c469.09$266 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$202.8135355.5%196 W · 157 L+36.1wins+0.10per pick45cpaid+20.4%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xfb32…db85backed Yes27c438.93$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12034440.4%139 W · 205 L-4.3wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-15.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x84fa…1327backed Yes46c434.15$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20014335%50 W · 93 L+0.1wins0.00per pick35cpaid-21.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6741…9f3fbacked No53c412.49$220 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$192.49757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick55cpaid-9.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xf269…817ebacked Yes12c398.09$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.47825%2 W · 6 L-0.7wins-0.09per pick34cpaid-36.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4b78…4d2fbacked Yes34c355.73$122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121.97922.2%2 W · 7 L-3.4wins-0.37per pick60cpaid-70.5%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x5885…6562backed No57c334$190 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$143.621850%9 W · 9 L-0.8wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-6.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd67b…5780backed Yes43c328.63$141 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$141.1138247.6%182 W · 200 L+37.1wins+0.10per pick38cpaid+32.8%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xff7c…b233backed Yes5c322.4$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.6930635.9%110 W · 196 L+2.9wins+0.01per pick35cpaid-12.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x66a1…80d9backed Yes27c320$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.691976.6%13 W · 184 L-0.8wins0.00per pick7cpaid-27.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x29ac…9907backed No49c314$154 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$160.144100%4 W · 0 L+2.4wins+0.60per pick41cpaid+160%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x9f66…ad61backed Yes41c312$128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$127.92933.3%3 W · 6 L-0.6wins-0.07per pick40cpaid-20.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf8d8…8d55backed Yes40c299.99$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1201770.6%12 W · 5 L+5.1wins+0.30per pick40cpaid+92.3%equal weight64+0.12 edge/pick
0xd70b…a152backed Yes42c286$121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120.84366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.1wins+0.37per pick30cpaid+254.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x72ab…1a3ebacked No49c282.87$137 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$145.5610165.3%66 W · 35 L+2.9wins+0.03per pick63cpaid+3.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe59d…bf9fbacked Yes4c271$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.8420%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6fc7…1a35backed No55c258$143 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$115.31233.3%4 W · 8 L-0.7wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-26.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8f3e…f9d4backed No49c248$122 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$126.482751.9%14 W · 13 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+3.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4959…a6f5backed No64c232.11$148 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$84.457341.1%30 W · 43 L-1.5wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-15.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5056…f991backed Yes50c232$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$115.13955.6%5 W · 4 L+1.0wins+0.11per pick44cpaid+1.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xce9f…ee16backed Yes47c213.68$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001225%3 W · 9 L0.0wins0.00per pick25cpaid+4.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd5a7…4d86backed No54c206$111 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$95.041172.7%8 W · 3 L+3.0wins+0.28per pick45cpaid+77.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xbacd…ab35backed Yes15c201$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.1548923.5%115 W · 374 L-14.3wins-0.03per pick26cpaid-46.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xab8e…3d89backed Yes15c200$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$303748.6%18 W · 19 L+3.8wins+0.10per pick38cpaid+8.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xd7f1…73cdbacked Yes46c200$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.7856336.6%206 W · 357 L+44.4wins+0.08per pick29cpaid+37.7%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x6bca…b60abacked Yes18c200$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$361323.1%3 W · 10 L-2.0wins-0.15per pick38cpaid-60.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x71f6…ea40backed Yes41c194$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.542227.3%6 W · 16 L-4.8wins-0.22per pick49cpaid-45.8%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x1056…5b18backed Yes42c183$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.053243.8%14 W · 18 L-2.3wins-0.07per pick51cpaid-10.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0b0e…282abacked No53c182$96 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85.541464.3%9 W · 5 L+1.9wins+0.13per pick51cpaid+22.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xca67…2648backed No52c180$94 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$86.41540%6 W · 9 L-0.6wins-0.04per pick44cpaid+41.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x4657…00d6backed No59c178$105 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.981233.3%4 W · 8 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick33cpaid+7.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfcd9…6c92backed Yes51c164$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.64966.7%6 W · 3 L+2.1wins+0.23per pick43cpaid+54.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x1617…ec98backed Yes48c163$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.431838.9%7 W · 11 L-2.3wins-0.13per pick52cpaid-17.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x1f7d…a315backed No50c161$81 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80.51656.3%9 W · 7 L+0.9wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+45.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x03a3…fdf4backed Yes51c161$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.112437.5%9 W · 15 L-1.1wins-0.05per pick42cpaid+107.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3fcc…f59cbacked Yes51c160.92$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.073732.4%12 W · 25 L-2.7wins-0.07per pick40cpaid-38.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x7430…546bbacked Yes19c159.37$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x71d2…e109backed Yes48c157$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.361323.1%3 W · 10 L-2.8wins-0.22per pick45cpaid-37.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x2247…96e8backed Yes43c155$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.651752.9%9 W · 8 L+1.6wins+0.09per pick44cpaid+15.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4faa…fecfbacked Yes47c153$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.911266.7%8 W · 4 L+2.0wins+0.17per pick50cpaid+31.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xafa3…c3ddbacked No59c153$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.73650%3 W · 3 L+0.8wins+0.13per pick37cpaid+21%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6fcd…0c32backed Yes51c153$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.03812.5%1 W · 7 L-2.9wins-0.37per pick49cpaid-59.7%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x2a10…e442backed No52c147$76 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.562347.8%11 W · 12 L-0.8wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-4.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8b02…a23bbacked Yes43c146$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.791145.5%5 W · 6 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+24.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0bfa…3888backed No52c142$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.16977.8%7 W · 2 L+1.9wins+0.21per pick57cpaid+39.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x4516…ea0ebacked No59c142$84 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.221145.5%5 W · 6 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-8.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8f52…a35abacked Yes43c141$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.631040%4 W · 6 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick36cpaid+17.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1e17…c6b5backed Yes51c139$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.891030%3 W · 7 L-1.2wins-0.11per pick42cpaid-21.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1608…9ce2backed Yes18c138.89$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick55cpaid-11.9%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x2d4b…ca7abacked Yes16c137.85$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.7330649%150 W · 156 L+77.8wins+0.25per pick24cpaid+105.8%equal weight76+0.24 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No67c136.28$91 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.3686542.3%366 W · 499 L-3.8wins0.00per pick43cpaid-7.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1ecb…b5e3backed Yes48c135$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.82445.8%11 W · 13 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick49cpaid+8.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0cc5…aeb8backed No52c135$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.81233.3%4 W · 8 L-1.4wins-0.12per pick45cpaid-40.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x54af…415ebacked No57c128$73 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.04425%1 W · 3 L-1.4wins-0.36per pick61cpaid-56.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xb50c…8c30backed Yes48c128$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.44944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.9wins-0.11per pick55cpaid-28.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0960…455dbacked Yes51c127.91$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.173345.5%15 W · 18 L+2.7wins+0.08per pick37cpaid+0.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xbb65…172cbacked Yes19c126.2$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.984151.2%21 W · 20 L+6.1wins+0.15per pick36cpaid+30.9%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xc5cf…90e6backed No59c123$73 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.433243.8%14 W · 18 L0.0wins0.00per pick44cpaid+27.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x667f…8c3ebacked Yes50c119$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.5850%4 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+45.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfc94…efd5backed No59c118$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.38944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.07per pick52cpaid-29.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x77b5…9170backed No51c115.09$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.285646.4%26 W · 30 L+1.5wins+0.03per pick44cpaid+13.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x21d2…3e62backed No57c115$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.451145.5%5 W · 6 L+0.5wins+0.05per pick41cpaid-15.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x9fd8…01f0backed Yes16c99.99$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$166431.3%20 W · 44 L-2.0wins-0.03per pick34cpaid-36.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5215…3164backed No52c99.15$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.591070%7 W · 3 L+3.1wins+0.31per pick39cpaid+94.5%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x964c…44acbacked Yes48c96$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.081957.9%11 W · 8 L+2.4wins+0.12per pick45cpaid+38.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x12c2…aa71backed No57c93$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.992445.8%11 W · 13 L0.0wins0.00per pick46cpaid+11.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6f67…102cbacked No53c90.47$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.5234234.8%119 W · 223 L-5.7wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-6.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2c99…8b4abacked Yes57c87.44$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501250%6 W · 6 L-0.5wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-29.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe9d9…bacbbacked No59c87$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.671216.7%2 W · 10 L-4.2wins-0.35per pick52cpaid-72.9%equal weight37-0.11 edge/pick
0x5aca…cad6backed Yes51c84$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.842142.9%9 W · 12 L-0.8wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3397…9ec1backed Yes18c83.33$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$156041.7%25 W · 35 L+4.8wins+0.08per pick34cpaid+8.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xd134…5558backed Yes51c82$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.821643.8%7 W · 9 L-0.7wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-16.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5243…a73cbacked Yes41c82$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.622326.1%6 W · 17 L-5.2wins-0.22per pick49cpaid-49.9%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0xd950…ad1bbacked Yes42c80$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.624839.5%98 W · 150 L-0.9wins0.00per pick40cpaid-19.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd129…7487backed Yes21c79$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.35450%2 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-23.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1fa8…2bcdbacked No59c73$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.931353.8%7 W · 6 L+1.7wins+0.13per pick41cpaid+94%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1984…713cbacked Yes42c70.93$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.110%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3a15…d5f0backed Yes57c70.48$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4010%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.57per pick57cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa641…86fdbacked No56c70$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.8862.5%5 W · 3 L+1.0wins+0.13per pick50cpaid+61.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.