Middle East · resolved market
Will Israel strike 2 countries in December 2025?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xacad54df699c4592c52f56ba51a37036de90e1708066d525dfb0c6163a8867fd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $109,493
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $101,749
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $109,493 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 140 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe092…9f1abacked Yes | 0c | 45,229$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.29 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +1.6wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +26.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x60a9…5a71backed Yes | 39c | 4,883$1,922 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,921.72 | 382 | 37.7%144 W · 238 L | +16.4wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5232…0ec5backed Yes | 3c | 4,062$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.31 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.25per pick | 42cpaid | -77.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4122…5c11backed Yes | 4c | 3,104$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.06 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xacc8…7d08backed Yes | 1c | 1,850$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.87 | 31 | 22.6%7 W · 24 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x39aa…583cbacked Yes | 45c | 1,659$742 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$742.04 | 50 | 22%11 W · 39 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -37%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2917…be8fbacked Yes | 3c | 1,658$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -19%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x011b…e44dbacked No | 79c | 1,617$1,282 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$334.71 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +1.7wins | +0.11per pick | 52cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4c2d…f8aebacked Yes | 18c | 1,462$263 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$263.11 | 404 | 33.7%136 W · 268 L | +12.1wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9339…a56fbacked Yes | 4c | 1,436$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.15 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0845…6b6fbacked Yes | 2c | 1,400$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.4 | 204 | 38.7%79 W · 125 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda42…dc4fbacked Yes | 1c | 1,109$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -62.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf416…6ec9backed No | 66c | 1,100$723 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$376.78 | 78 | 50%39 W · 39 L | +6.0wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +15%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x963a…fc4cbacked Yes | 56c | 1,056$590 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$590 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cf…88fabacked No | 44c | 999.98$440 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$559.99 | 81 | 45.7%37 W · 44 L | +6.2wins | +0.08per pick | 38cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8f42…b88fbacked No | 61c | 795.97$482 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$313.94 | 367 | 50.4%185 W · 182 L | +39.6wins | +0.11per pick | 40cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xcf95…7865backed Yes | 32c | 642.42$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206.14 | 153 | 24.8%38 W · 115 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d1d…5aa0backed Yes | 7c | 578.14$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.1 | 219 | 26.5%58 W · 161 L | +12.7wins | +0.06per pick | 21cpaid | +76.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1022…d9d1backed Yes | 52c | 556.99$287 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$287.41 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fe…ce76backed Yes | 54c | 552.89$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.99 | 177 | 40.7%72 W · 105 L | +13.9wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | +36%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0dcc…5bd9backed Yes | 16c | 522.81$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.54 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 26cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe738…df65backed No | 57c | 469.09$266 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$202.81 | 353 | 55.5%196 W · 157 L | +36.1wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xfb32…db85backed Yes | 27c | 438.93$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 344 | 40.4%139 W · 205 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84fa…1327backed Yes | 46c | 434.15$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 143 | 35%50 W · 93 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6741…9f3fbacked No | 53c | 412.49$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192.49 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf269…817ebacked Yes | 12c | 398.09$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.47 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b78…4d2fbacked Yes | 34c | 355.73$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.97 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -3.4wins | -0.37per pick | 60cpaid | -70.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5885…6562backed No | 57c | 334$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.62 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd67b…5780backed Yes | 43c | 328.63$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.11 | 382 | 47.6%182 W · 200 L | +37.1wins | +0.10per pick | 38cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xff7c…b233backed Yes | 5c | 322.4$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.69 | 306 | 35.9%110 W · 196 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66a1…80d9backed Yes | 27c | 320$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.69 | 197 | 6.6%13 W · 184 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 7cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x29ac…9907backed No | 49c | 314$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.14 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +2.4wins | +0.60per pick | 41cpaid | +160%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9f66…ad61backed Yes | 41c | 312$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.92 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8d8…8d55backed Yes | 40c | 299.99$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +5.1wins | +0.30per pick | 40cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xd70b…a152backed Yes | 42c | 286$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.84 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.37per pick | 30cpaid | +254.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x72ab…1a3ebacked No | 49c | 282.87$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.56 | 101 | 65.3%66 W · 35 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe59d…bf9fbacked Yes | 4c | 271$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.84 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6fc7…1a35backed No | 55c | 258$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.3 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f3e…f9d4backed No | 49c | 248$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.48 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 64c | 232.11$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.45 | 73 | 41.1%30 W · 43 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5056…f991backed Yes | 50c | 232$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.13 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.11per pick | 44cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xce9f…ee16backed Yes | 47c | 213.68$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd5a7…4d86backed No | 54c | 206$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.04 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +3.0wins | +0.28per pick | 45cpaid | +77.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbacd…ab35backed Yes | 15c | 201$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.15 | 489 | 23.5%115 W · 374 L | -14.3wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xab8e…3d89backed Yes | 15c | 200$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | +3.8wins | +0.10per pick | 38cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f1…73cdbacked Yes | 46c | 200$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.78 | 563 | 36.6%206 W · 357 L | +44.4wins | +0.08per pick | 29cpaid | +37.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6bca…b60abacked Yes | 18c | 200$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -2.0wins | -0.15per pick | 38cpaid | -60.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x71f6…ea40backed Yes | 41c | 194$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.54 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | -4.8wins | -0.22per pick | 49cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1056…5b18backed Yes | 42c | 183$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.05 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | -2.3wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0b0e…282abacked No | 53c | 182$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.54 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +1.9wins | +0.13per pick | 51cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xca67…2648backed No | 52c | 180$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.4 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +41.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4657…00d6backed No | 59c | 178$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.98 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfcd9…6c92backed Yes | 51c | 164$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.64 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +2.1wins | +0.23per pick | 43cpaid | +54.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1617…ec98backed Yes | 48c | 163$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.43 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -2.3wins | -0.13per pick | 52cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1f7d…a315backed No | 50c | 161$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.5 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +45.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x03a3…fdf4backed Yes | 51c | 161$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.11 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +107.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3fcc…f59cbacked Yes | 51c | 160.92$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.07 | 37 | 32.4%12 W · 25 L | -2.7wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -38.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7430…546bbacked Yes | 19c | 159.37$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x71d2…e109backed Yes | 48c | 157$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.36 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -2.8wins | -0.22per pick | 45cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2247…96e8backed Yes | 43c | 155$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.65 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +1.6wins | +0.09per pick | 44cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4faa…fecfbacked Yes | 47c | 153$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.91 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +2.0wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xafa3…c3ddbacked No | 59c | 153$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.73 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +21%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6fcd…0c32backed Yes | 51c | 153$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.03 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -2.9wins | -0.37per pick | 49cpaid | -59.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2a10…e442backed No | 52c | 147$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.56 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b02…a23bbacked Yes | 43c | 146$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.79 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +24.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0bfa…3888backed No | 52c | 142$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.16 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.9wins | +0.21per pick | 57cpaid | +39.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4516…ea0ebacked No | 59c | 142$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.22 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f52…a35abacked Yes | 43c | 141$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.63 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e17…c6b5backed Yes | 51c | 139$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.89 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.11per pick | 42cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1608…9ce2backed Yes | 18c | 138.89$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d4b…ca7abacked Yes | 16c | 137.85$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.73 | 306 | 49%150 W · 156 L | +77.8wins | +0.25per pick | 24cpaid | +105.8%equal weight | 76+0.24 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 67c | 136.28$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.36 | 865 | 42.3%366 W · 499 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1ecb…b5e3backed Yes | 48c | 135$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.8 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0cc5…aeb8backed No | 52c | 135$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.8 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x54af…415ebacked No | 57c | 128$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.04 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.36per pick | 61cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb50c…8c30backed Yes | 48c | 128$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.44 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.11per pick | 55cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0960…455dbacked Yes | 51c | 127.91$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.17 | 33 | 45.5%15 W · 18 L | +2.7wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbb65…172cbacked Yes | 19c | 126.2$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.98 | 41 | 51.2%21 W · 20 L | +6.1wins | +0.15per pick | 36cpaid | +30.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc5cf…90e6backed No | 59c | 123$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.43 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x667f…8c3ebacked Yes | 50c | 119$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.5 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +45.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfc94…efd5backed No | 59c | 118$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.38 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 51c | 115.09$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.28 | 56 | 46.4%26 W · 30 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21d2…3e62backed No | 57c | 115$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.45 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fd8…01f0backed Yes | 16c | 99.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 64 | 31.3%20 W · 44 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5215…3164backed No | 52c | 99.15$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.59 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +3.1wins | +0.31per pick | 39cpaid | +94.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x964c…44acbacked Yes | 48c | 96$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.08 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +2.4wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +38.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x12c2…aa71backed No | 57c | 93$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.99 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 53c | 90.47$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.52 | 342 | 34.8%119 W · 223 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c99…8b4abacked Yes | 57c | 87.44$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9d9…bacbbacked No | 59c | 87$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.67 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -4.2wins | -0.35per pick | 52cpaid | -72.9%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x5aca…cad6backed Yes | 51c | 84$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.84 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3397…9ec1backed Yes | 18c | 83.33$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 60 | 41.7%25 W · 35 L | +4.8wins | +0.08per pick | 34cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd134…5558backed Yes | 51c | 82$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.82 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5243…a73cbacked Yes | 41c | 82$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.62 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | -5.2wins | -0.22per pick | 49cpaid | -49.9%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xd950…ad1bbacked Yes | 42c | 80$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.6 | 248 | 39.5%98 W · 150 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd129…7487backed Yes | 21c | 79$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.35 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1fa8…2bcdbacked No | 59c | 73$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.93 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +1.7wins | +0.13per pick | 41cpaid | +94%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1984…713cbacked Yes | 42c | 70.93$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a15…d5f0backed Yes | 57c | 70.48$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa641…86fdbacked No | 56c | 70$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.8 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.13per pick | 50cpaid | +61.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Israel strike 2 countries in December 2025?this page
- Will Israel strike 0 countries in December 2025?No won
- Will Israel strike 1 country in December 2025?Yes won
- Will Israel strike 3 or more countries in December 2025?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.