Middle East · resolved market
Will Israel strike 3 or more countries in December 2025?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1ffdd6b49f41ca4340e4e907e890e8cc3b382e0a6fbf209012febe7f98da418a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $42,928
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $40,491
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $42,928 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x66a1…80d9backed Yes | 1c | 3,536$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.49 | 197 | 6.6%13 W · 184 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 7cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x60a9…5a71backed Yes | 5c | 3,081$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.34 | 382 | 37.7%144 W · 238 L | +16.4wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbacd…ab35backed Yes | 1c | 2,617$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.32 | 489 | 23.5%115 W · 374 L | -14.3wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x39aa…583cbacked Yes | 9c | 1,675$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.89 | 50 | 22%11 W · 39 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -37%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 3c | 1,576$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.35 | 1,558 | 7.2%112 W · 1,446 L | -35.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x963a…fc4cbacked Yes | 6c | 859.11$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe1a…73e1backed Yes | 5c | 799.99$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.5 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.21per pick | 19cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f3f…1881backed Yes | 6c | 794.14$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.59 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x66c1…2c72backed Yes | 5c | 500$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 291 | 29.9%87 W · 204 L | +21.5wins | +0.07per pick | 23cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 4c | 499.98$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.65 | 643 | 39.3%253 W · 390 L | -59.4wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa938…a1ffbacked Yes | 11c | 498$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.78 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | +3.7wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +49.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x48a4…e3f3backed Yes | 2c | 492.22$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0298…eadcbacked Yes | 13c | 490$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.7 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…9cbebacked Yes | 6c | 438.69$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.92 | 221 | 7.2%16 W · 205 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5372…5f61backed Yes | 6c | 336$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.16 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.3wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +36.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec92…1214backed Yes | 6c | 334$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.04 | 45 | 42.2%19 W · 26 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21da…a70dbacked Yes | 15c | 328.22$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc51d…373bbacked Yes | 13c | 297.43$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6cb…ac3dbacked Yes | 7c | 291$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.37 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf95…7865backed Yes | 6c | 257.22$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.66 | 153 | 24.8%38 W · 115 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a0e…9036backed Yes | 9c | 252.33$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.9 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +2.3wins | +0.23per pick | 27cpaid | +31.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb9f2…0c24backed Yes | 6c | 250$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 27 | 14.8%4 W · 23 L | -3.3wins | -0.12per pick | 27cpaid | -40.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xce04…9496backed Yes | 8c | 245.72$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed Yes | 5c | 230.08$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.07 | 53 | 13.2%7 W · 46 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 17cpaid | -62.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb7d4…5735backed Yes | 8c | 212$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.96 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee9e…efb7backed Yes | 8c | 199$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.92 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -3.5wins | -0.20per pick | 42cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0cc5…aeb8backed Yes | 7c | 197$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.79 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa906…84e4backed Yes | 7c | 179$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.53 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf298…12f8backed Yes | 8c | 174$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.92 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -2.6wins | -0.43per pick | 60cpaid | -78.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3b8e…9f38backed Yes | 9c | 166.67$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbcff…2a59backed Yes | 7c | 153.88$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 38 | 39.5%15 W · 23 L | -2.6wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c99…8b4abacked Yes | 20c | 147.68$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ac4…1e0cbacked Yes | 13c | 147.14$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.64 | 17 | 5.9%1 W · 16 L | -1.6wins | -0.10per pick | 15cpaid | -77%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd40d…b2fabacked Yes | 14c | 146$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.44 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -1.7wins | -0.15per pick | 33cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb132…6943backed Yes | 8c | 143$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.44 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -1.9wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Israel strike 3 or more countries in December 2025?this page
- Will Israel strike 0 countries in December 2025?No won
- Will Israel strike 1 country in December 2025?Yes won
- Will Israel strike 2 countries in December 2025?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.