Ukraine · resolved market
Russia strike on Kyiv municipality on December 3?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0c6e9b70045099d920e55386f0557fb351e3d4b263c71ae01e4a258b20749e93
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,520
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,059
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,520 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ukraine | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe738…df65backed No | 77c | 1,756$1,349 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$407.91 | 66 | 47%31 W · 35 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…4f20backed Yes | 20c | 999.24$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.65 | 234 | 35.5%83 W · 151 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e85…1f81backed Yes | 32c | 622.16$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.38 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.8wins | -0.20per pick | 31cpaid | -82.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd134…5558backed Yes | 17c | 295$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c8b…a211backed Yes | 17c | 239.99$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.78 | 78 | 48.7%38 W · 40 L | +5.9wins | +0.08per pick | 41cpaid | +44.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd950…ad1bbacked Yes | 11c | 219.99$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.32 | 90 | 34.4%31 W · 59 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 23c | 161.27$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.01 | 394 | 29.4%116 W · 278 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe53d…8ab8backed Yes | 17c | 134$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.78 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.23per pick | 44cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 19c | 97.61$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.26 | 294 | 16%47 W · 247 L | -53.7wins | -0.18per pick | 34cpaid | -65.8%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff2…7c02backed No | 73c | 81.85$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.85 | 94 | 75.5%71 W · 23 L | +10.9wins | +0.12per pick | 64cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3003…efa3backed No | 63c | 80$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.6 | 44 | 52.3%23 W · 21 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x964c…44acbacked Yes | 17c | 75$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b69…6622backed Yes | 23c | 66$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1e1…d9c1backed No | 77c | 66$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.18 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x64c9…6bdebacked Yes | 17c | 60$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 25c | 57$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.12 | 417 | 36.2%151 W · 266 L | -25.2wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfff0…54e7backed No | 75c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 42 | 40.5%17 W · 25 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x62b1…a4c0backed No | 72c | 41.52$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.53 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 28c | 38.94$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.9 | 532 | 7%37 W · 495 L | -14.3wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -66.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f88…b873backed No | 74c | 27.03$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.03 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb990…c2e6backed No | 77c | 23.23$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.34 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.35per pick | 55cpaid | -74%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa8aa…dd0ebacked No | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe649…42c7backed No | 75c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Russia strike on Kyiv municipality on December 3?this page
- Russia strike on Kyiv municipality on December 10?No won
- Russia strike on Kyiv municipality on December 4?No won
- Russia strike on Kyiv municipality on December 5?No won
- Russia strike on Kyiv municipality on December 6?No won
- Russia strike on Kyiv municipality on December 7?No won
- Russia strike on Kyiv municipality on December 8?No won
- Russia strike on Kyiv municipality on December 9?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.