Ukraine · resolved market
Russia strike on Kyiv municipality on December 6?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x36bd6be73556b52f0c15fc1c5c25de9976c537812c635325b0a91344fe4d0c6c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $38,747
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $46,531
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $38,747 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 69 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ukraine | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7321…901abacked Yes | 3c | 7,220$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8b3…4484backed No | 57c | 2,678$1,527 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,150.14 | 82 | 24.4%20 W · 62 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 24cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa83a…34d6backed Yes | 39c | 1,939$758 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$758 | 36 | 25%9 W · 27 L | -4.1wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -37%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…4f20backed No | 59c | 1,397$822 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$574.22 | 234 | 35.5%83 W · 151 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd950…ad1bbacked Yes | 68c | 1,217$831 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$830.71 | 90 | 34.4%31 W · 59 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa27e…0f97backed Yes | 5c | 1,151$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.96 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e85…1f81backed Yes | 28c | 751$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212.09 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.8wins | -0.20per pick | 31cpaid | -82.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x40f8…327dbacked No | 77c | 622$476 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.84 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef54…c997backed Yes | 77c | 576.25$442 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$442.33 | 54 | 61.1%33 W · 21 L | +4.1wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe738…df65backed No | 61c | 558$342 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$215.65 | 66 | 47%31 W · 35 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xafd9…46d5backed No | 15c | 523.62$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$445.07 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4657…00d6backed No | 74c | 306$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.99 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +41.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe443…c065backed Yes | 72c | 299.99$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214.79 | 75 | 48%36 W · 39 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 10c | 290.62$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.48 | 532 | 7%37 W · 495 L | -14.3wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -66.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaec0…5a19backed No | 16c | 282.9$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$238.56 | 48 | 18.8%9 W · 39 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x45ff…bab6backed No | 75c | 281$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.18 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05be…78d0backed No | 75c | 265.68$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.68 | 38 | 65.8%25 W · 13 L | +3.5wins | +0.09per pick | 57cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xac45…1dcfbacked Yes | 15c | 254$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.97 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf416…6ec9backed No | 37c | 224.05$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.15 | 64 | 43.8%28 W · 36 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3003…efa3backed Yes | 77c | 215.84$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.99 | 44 | 52.3%23 W · 21 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 25c | 184.55$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.34 | 172 | 32%55 W · 117 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab88…e0a4backed Yes | 25c | 167$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.75 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ed7…b0a5backed Yes | 31c | 167$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.77 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 19cpaid | +156.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a6e…88adbacked No | 73c | 154$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.9 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a59…a320backed No | 76c | 144$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.56 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +29.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x66a1…80d9backed Yes | 13c | 143.95$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.57 | 58 | 10.3%6 W · 52 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x358d…7602backed Yes | 23c | 140$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5518…1211backed No | 77c | 135$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.05 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9238…b73ebacked Yes | 31c | 130$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.4 | 353 | 41.9%148 W · 205 L | +24.9wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf245…1df4backed Yes | 8c | 129.98$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 37 | 21.6%8 W · 29 L | -3.4wins | -0.09per pick | 31cpaid | -62.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 14c | 129$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.73 | 417 | 36.2%151 W · 266 L | -25.2wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x926c…8464backed No | 38c | 116.34$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.34 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.14per pick | 43cpaid | +43.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc235…5231backed No | 39c | 115.03$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.03 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.69per pick | 31cpaid | +237.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x057d…4d1fbacked No | 64c | 114.99$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.4 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -1.6wins | -0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1587…901abacked Yes | 27c | 113$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.51 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecb6…cfe8backed Yes | 18c | 109$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.62 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa29…340bbacked Yes | 67c | 106.67$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.92 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c8b…a211backed Yes | 77c | 101.17$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.9 | 78 | 48.7%38 W · 40 L | +5.9wins | +0.08per pick | 41cpaid | +44.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf93a…8a46backed Yes | 37c | 96.85$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.58 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x96d3…df67backed Yes | 36c | 86.28$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.64 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x72ab…1a3ebacked No | 59c | 81.36$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.74 | 44 | 75%33 W · 11 L | +4.2wins | +0.09per pick | 66cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa967…9c02backed Yes | 39c | 75.65$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.88 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24e4…09dcbacked No | 77c | 70$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.27 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5787…a1d6backed Yes | 45c | 69.93$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.35 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43d7…54a7backed No | 67c | 69$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.56 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2596…5e48backed Yes | 73c | 67.12$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc178…35b3backed No | 19c | 59.23$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.16 | 17 | 82.4%14 W · 3 L | +7.5wins | +0.44per pick | 38cpaid | +138.6%equal weight | 70+0.18 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4f…b4b3backed No | 40c | 56.8$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.23 | 171 | 22.2%38 W · 133 L | -10.8wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -44.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 39c | 54.59$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.13 | 394 | 29.4%116 W · 278 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a56…52b7backed Yes | 49c | 53.98$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.62 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba6b…b341backed Yes | 23c | 53.49$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfff0…54e7backed No | 75c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 42 | 40.5%17 W · 25 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 54c | 49.49$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.7 | 294 | 16%47 W · 247 L | -53.7wins | -0.18per pick | 34cpaid | -65.8%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked Yes | 32c | 47.06$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.06 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -1.9wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeedd…3414backed Yes | 27c | 40.37$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2196…b03cbacked Yes | 50c | 40.02$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 36 | 47.2%17 W · 19 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d4b…ca7abacked No | 28c | 37.89$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.18 | 50 | 38%19 W · 31 L | +5.8wins | +0.12per pick | 26cpaid | +39.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x22c2…87b5backed Yes | 68c | 30.76$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.95 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.68per pick | 68cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x03c8…0e01backed Yes | 75c | 30.53$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.9 | 40 | 10%4 W · 36 L | -7.0wins | -0.17per pick | 27cpaid | -50.3%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x3147…61bdbacked No | 53c | 28.13$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.13 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +89.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcd7e…d68fbacked Yes | 72c | 27.69$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.72per pick | 72cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d7c…8d15backed Yes | 71c | 26.76$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.71per pick | 71cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3da7…6d19backed No | 70c | 26.35$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.92 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +43%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd151…b2cfbacked Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2f0…b74abacked No | 77c | 21.91$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.04 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd5cc…dea4backed Yes | 51c | 21.54$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.99 | 116 | 47.4%55 W · 61 L | +6.0wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +24%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe93…8d0ebacked Yes | 61c | 20.73$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.65 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -27%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe56d…a919backed No | 61c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f88…b873backed No | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Russia strike on Kyiv municipality on December 6?this page
- Russia strike on Kyiv municipality on December 10?No won
- Russia strike on Kyiv municipality on December 3?No won
- Russia strike on Kyiv municipality on December 4?No won
- Russia strike on Kyiv municipality on December 5?No won
- Russia strike on Kyiv municipality on December 7?No won
- Russia strike on Kyiv municipality on December 8?No won
- Russia strike on Kyiv municipality on December 9?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.