Premier League · resolved market
Will Darren Fletcher be appointed as manager of Manchester United?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3f4d2e2543f9ee3ab3fc6f688702b7e515a17b934ac2c376834fb9820863fb39
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $183,559
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $317,251
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $183,559 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Premier League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfc67…eaeebacked Yes | 2c | 1,727$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.91 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c6b…ea04backed Yes | 1c | 1,637$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.64 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb758…00b7backed Yes | 2c | 1,631$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xefac…c9a1backed Yes | 9c | 1,407$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.65 | 79 | 46.8%37 W · 42 L | +5.5wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +15%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6a88…b859backed Yes | 7c | 1,330$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.77 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed Yes | 2c | 1,250$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.31 | 111 | 25.2%28 W · 83 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b9a…b04fbacked Yes | 10c | 1,178$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.58 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x82ed…b788backed Yes | 5c | 841$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.47 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab38…77febacked Yes | 12c | 776$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.12 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ed3…6f56backed Yes | 20c | 771.18$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.19per pick | 48cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c9e…db3dbacked Yes | 2c | 573.57$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.04 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…9cbebacked Yes | 6c | 515.7$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.75 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa89e…4ab4backed Yes | 8c | 499.99$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 120 | 60%72 W · 48 L | +6.9wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xee9e…efb7backed Yes | 22c | 474$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.28 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.23per pick | 27cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 3c | 428$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.14 | 203 | 7.4%15 W · 188 L | -4.0wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -57.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c2d…ddd6backed No | 78c | 415$324 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.3 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64c9…6bdebacked Yes | 13c | 409$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.17 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf95…7865backed Yes | 7c | 395.78$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.46 | 75 | 40%30 W · 45 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…4d2dbacked Yes | 6c | 332.8$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.33 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe061…93f9backed Yes | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 8c | 199.83$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.55 | 116 | 28.4%33 W · 83 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa0dd…1b9bbacked Yes | 6c | 198.63$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.92 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -4.0wins | -0.25per pick | 50cpaid | -55.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6149…8a58backed Yes | 14c | 175.48$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.37 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +1.8wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd493…7f04backed Yes | 9c | 175.03$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.75 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7fb8…d906backed No | 77c | 156$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.76 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9576…0841backed Yes | 13c | 152.64$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.6 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x408a…fb8cbacked Yes | 14c | 148.02$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe082…04bcbacked Yes | 10c | 140$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -23%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 76c | 113$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.12 | 154 | 61%94 W · 60 L | +9.1wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xec7d…923dbacked Yes | 16c | 64.38$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a5a…3427backed Yes | 39c | 60$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.2 | 61 | 57.4%35 W · 26 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x19cd…f7ffbacked No | 78c | 59$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.98 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 48cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Darren Fletcher be appointed as manager of Manchester United?this page
- Will Enzo Maresca be appointed as manager of Manchester United?No won
- Will Gareth Southgate be appointed as manager of Manchester United?No won
- Will Kieran McKenna be appointed as manager of Manchester United?No won
- Will Laurent Blanc be appointed as manager of Manchester United?No won
- Will Luis Enrique be appointed as manager of Manchester United?No won
- Will Michael Carrick be appointed as manager of Manchester United?Yes won
- Will Ole Gunnar Solskjær be appointed as manager of Manchester United?No won
- Will Oliver Glasner be appointed as manager of Manchester United?No won
- Will Thomas Tuchel be appointed as manager of Manchester United?No won
- Will Xabi Alonso be appointed as manager of Manchester United?No won
- Will Xavi be appointed as manager of Manchester United?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.