World Politics · resolved market
Will the National Citizen Party finish with the third most seats in the Bangladesh parliamentary election?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xab33521471ff32bb25f5df04c8e8c8809d2c7a973aa531f5f51cd02271231b99
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,694
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,616
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,694 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3e4e…501cbacked Yes | 78c | 2,824$2,200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$624.22 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x70e7…4a70backed Yes | 50c | 924$462 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$462 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | 0%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d4b…ca7abacked No | 17c | 811.1$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 113 | 49.6%56 W · 57 L | +28.4wins | +0.25per pick | 24cpaid | +106.5%equal weight | 73+0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x39be…5e7bbacked Yes | 80c | 627$502 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.4 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 36cpaid | -59.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c2e…e025backed No | 50c | 517$259 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$258.5 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +1.0wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +55.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa6a…21c3backed No | 20c | 456$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.2 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.12per pick | 41cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x01dd…fb46backed No | 50c | 407$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x64c9…6bdebacked No | 72c | 356$256 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$256.32 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +60.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9ab…d0a0backed Yes | 28c | 356$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$256.32 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +3.5wins | +0.27per pick | 27cpaid | +142%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x135f…2a21backed Yes | 40c | 348.09$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$209.09 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.19per pick | 21cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a33…a5f7backed No | 19c | 344.71$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.81 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ae4…d837backed No | 20c | 309$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.8 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.8wins | +0.30per pick | 54cpaid | +73%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x848d…76c1backed Yes | 80c | 309$247 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.8 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +1.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb50…7bfcbacked No | 4c | 300$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 89 | 43.8%39 W · 50 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d42…f124backed No | 33c | 284.4$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.25 | 76 | 18.4%14 W · 62 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -49.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe3de…5339backed No | 17c | 282$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.94 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -3.8wins | -0.29per pick | 37cpaid | -83.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xbc70…50c0backed No | 17c | 210$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.7 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 36c | 209.35$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.05 | 322 | 55%177 W · 145 L | +14.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8dd8…cca3backed No | 13c | 200$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +3.0wins | +0.34per pick | 22cpaid | +106.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x695c…10a1backed No | 15c | 199$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.79 | 36 | 47.2%17 W · 19 L | +6.8wins | +0.19per pick | 28cpaid | +57.2%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd0…df9abacked Yes | 55c | 180.61$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.61 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.19per pick | 48cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1502…be53backed No | 20c | 171$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.2 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75d1…7a5fbacked No | 39c | 163$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.87 | 156 | 50%78 W · 78 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5e4…471abacked No | 15c | 153.15$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.36 | 150 | 22.7%34 W · 116 L | +8.6wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +43%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2c16…4890backed No | 20c | 150$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa872…9fe4backed No | 20c | 150$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.14per pick | 26cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaec9…3213backed No | 17c | 130$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.1 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf95…7865backed Yes | 80c | 100.75$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.15 | 347 | 26.8%93 W · 254 L | -12.3wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4be1…3feabacked No | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +2.2wins | +0.24per pick | 9cpaid | +604.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdf08…cf97backed No | 36c | 96.64$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.97 | 93 | 39.8%37 W · 56 L | -8.4wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 19c | 76.08$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.46 | 563 | 14.6%82 W · 481 L | -39.3wins | -0.07per pick | 22cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 36c | 75.17$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.99 | 260 | 52.3%136 W · 124 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7714…0720backed Yes | 38c | 58.08$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.08 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.62per pick | 38cpaid | +164%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd2dc…223ebacked No | 47c | 53.18$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.08 | 37 | 35.1%13 W · 24 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f1f…f0b0backed Yes | 43c | 51.23$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.24 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x340b…f8dcbacked No | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +3.0wins | +0.28per pick | 9cpaid | +527.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4575…9628backed No | 47c | 42.97$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 33 | 39.4%13 W · 20 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa912…297fbacked No | 70c | 42.56$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.69 | 58 | 60.3%35 W · 23 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb32f…4f72backed No | 67c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.4 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.36per pick | 61cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1ff3…eb39backed Yes | 52c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the National Citizen Party finish with the third most seats in the Bangladesh parliamentary election?this page
- Will Bangladesh Jamaat-e-Islami finish with the third most seats in the Bangladesh parliamentary election?No won
- Will Islami Andolan Bangladesh finish with the third most seats in the Bangladesh parliamentary election?No won
- Will the Bangladesh Nationalist Party finish with the third most seats in the Bangladesh parliamentary election?No won
- Will the Jatiya Party finish with the third most seats in the Bangladesh parliamentary election?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.