Us Midterms · resolved market
Will Andy Biggs win the 2026 Arizona Governor Republican primary election?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x521d35b8e294b0e0560063a9ed113cef947281fc4d3fea796f1bfb517e68b795
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Midtermsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,993
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,965
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,993 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Midterms is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x38e5…95e7backed Yes | 79c | 853.58$671 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182.13 | 210 | 33.3%70 W · 140 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…9cbebacked No | 5c | 674.1$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.42 | 182 | 3.8%7 W · 175 L | -4.7wins | -0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -50%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c9e…db3dbacked No | 4c | 401.16$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.4 | 104 | 1%1 W · 103 L | -3.7wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -88.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa667…ceb3backed No | 3c | 396.25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.39 | 87 | 57.5%50 W · 37 L | +9.9wins | +0.11per pick | 46cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x168f…9e00backed No | 4c | 385.68$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.33 | 88 | 31.8%28 W · 60 L | -5.4wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x09fe…76eebacked Yes | 56c | 287.93$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.97 | 74 | 29.7%22 W · 52 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -41.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa67d…c6f9backed Yes | 78c | 200.16$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.04 | 26 | 23.1%6 W · 20 L | -3.3wins | -0.13per pick | 36cpaid | -55.4%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf27d…e6d3backed No | 24c | 200$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 63 | 22.2%14 W · 49 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -38.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x64c9…6bdebacked Yes | 16c | 197$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.48 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.19per pick | 38cpaid | +76.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe356…63bcbacked No | 7c | 194.67$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.18 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf95…7865backed Yes | 74c | 189.63$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.38 | 166 | 32.5%54 W · 112 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6b2…3caabacked No | 7c | 168$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.76 | 30 | 36.7%11 W · 19 L | -2.9wins | -0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce6…16a3backed No | 8c | 165.62$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.44 | 34 | 14.7%5 W · 29 L | -3.5wins | -0.10per pick | 25cpaid | -52.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdb40…3612backed No | 15c | 160.42$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.42 | 67 | 10.4%7 W · 60 L | -8.0wins | -0.12per pick | 22cpaid | -68.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc5…610ebacked No | 8c | 148.64$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.28 | 36 | 22.2%8 W · 28 L | -2.3wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -69.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7832…ca08backed No | 8c | 147.32$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.34 | 27 | 25.9%7 W · 20 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 13c | 133.74$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.53 | 334 | 21.9%73 W · 261 L | -23.8wins | -0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -35%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd084…27eabacked Yes | 80c | 121.38$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.28 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a86…dea8backed No | 43c | 112.87$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.54 | 83 | 31.3%26 W · 57 L | -4.9wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd834…e011backed Yes | 78c | 100$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed No | 46c | 94.12$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.29 | 180 | 26.1%47 W · 133 L | -4.9wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x721a…9295backed No | 45c | 94.11$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.35 | 56 | 42.9%24 W · 32 L | -2.4wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9a1…c98abacked No | 35c | 76.97$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.86 | 75 | 33.3%25 W · 50 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b98…5cfabacked No | 21c | 55$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.55 | 25 | 16%4 W · 21 L | -4.8wins | -0.19per pick | 35cpaid | -72.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x3214…f00ebacked No | 39c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc80…7bd2backed Yes | 61c | 50$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.6wins | +0.31per pick | 49cpaid | +105.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe3a6…8297backed Yes | 64c | 50$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 71cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0362…449ebacked No | 44c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 57 | 50.9%29 W · 28 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 33c | 38.87$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.87 | 669 | 14.8%99 W · 570 L | -105.6wins | -0.16per pick | 31cpaid | -66%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ac…f23dbacked Yes | 80c | 30.91$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.18 | 87 | 41.4%36 W · 51 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b9d…adc0backed Yes | 64c | 26.13$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.53 | 61 | 52.5%32 W · 29 L | +5.1wins | +0.08per pick | 44cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Andy Biggs win the 2026 Arizona Governor Republican primary election?this page
- Will David Schweikert win the 2026 Arizona Governor Republican primary election?No won
- Will Karrin Taylor Robson win the 2026 Arizona Governor Republican primary election?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.