Movies · resolved market
Will Marty Supreme win Best Film Editing at the 98th Academy Awards?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2f99639ab9a476ae229c40a8207fde238dc4bd5adcf79439bbbc0165607e4ab2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $215,631
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $215,631 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 98 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5711…2f81backed Yes | 6c | 3,615$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea07…02d9backed Yes | 1c | 2,903$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0753…f478backed Yes | 1c | 2,832$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.31 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f83…8390backed Yes | 1c | 2,779$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.67 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4588…4a56backed Yes | 1c | 2,637$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.46 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 7c | 2,439$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.35 | 1,394 | 8%111 W · 1,283 L | -47.9wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked Yes | 5c | 2,232$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.25 | 45 | 8.9%4 W · 41 L | -2.2wins | -0.05per pick | 14cpaid | -76.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb79e…920cbacked Yes | 1c | 2,175$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.05 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4452…c7cabacked Yes | 1c | 2,118$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.83 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1865…34f0backed Yes | 1c | 2,092$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.82 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e94…9c83backed Yes | 1c | 2,021$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb968…b94ebacked Yes | 1c | 1,922$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.45 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x70af…e586backed Yes | 1c | 1,886$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0aba…ee0cbacked Yes | 1c | 1,859$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.01 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcff9…2d02backed Yes | 1c | 1,736$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x07c8…a6d6backed Yes | 1c | 1,546$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.82 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x88c3…0871backed Yes | 1c | 1,525$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.68 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d1…7009backed Yes | 1c | 1,524$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.67 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x742c…acc0backed Yes | 15c | 1,519$232 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$231.68 | 29 | 20.7%6 W · 23 L | -1.8wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes | 1c | 1,433$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.23 | 98 | 3.1%3 W · 95 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -89%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9836…6f2ebacked Yes | 4c | 1,331$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +0.9wins | +0.10per pick | 12cpaid | +71.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa89e…e87fbacked Yes | 1c | 1,120$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa1b7…c8a1backed Yes | 2c | 1,120$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.6 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a1f…1a9fbacked Yes | 7c | 1,054$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.32 | 90 | 21.1%19 W · 71 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…9cbebacked Yes | 6c | 1,016$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.84 | 89 | 4.5%4 W · 85 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x115a…e4a6backed Yes | 2c | 999.98$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 26 | 3.8%1 W · 25 L | -2.0wins | -0.08per pick | 12cpaid | -85.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x57d4…ac0dbacked Yes | 3c | 951.43$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.21 | 170 | 41.8%71 W · 99 L | +10.8wins | +0.06per pick | 35cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x417f…19cfbacked Yes | 1c | 949.46$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.23 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 26cpaid | -75.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 6c | 933.79$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.34 | 154 | 9.7%15 W · 139 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -30%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85be…5ec1backed Yes | 13c | 794.99$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.61 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -64.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fa8…2bcdbacked Yes | 11c | 749$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.4 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0b7…42f6backed Yes | 15c | 741.32$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.15 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf058…2f88backed Yes | 15c | 718.63$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1294…9151backed Yes | 18c | 710$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.51 | 26 | 23.1%6 W · 20 L | -2.0wins | -0.08per pick | 31cpaid | -52.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x64c9…6bdebacked Yes | 13c | 690$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.46 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | -3.8wins | -0.14per pick | 44cpaid | -50.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xefac…c9a1backed Yes | 18c | 674.63$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.63 | 482 | 36.3%175 W · 307 L | +8.4wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7171…7af9backed Yes | 2c | 625$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.16per pick | 4cpaid | +239.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5693…c20ebacked Yes | 3c | 609.75$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.56 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x44aa…d1d5backed Yes | 15c | 600$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.64 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.35per pick | 32cpaid | +123.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x85dc…7ebfbacked Yes | 4c | 580.43$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.69 | 31 | 19.4%6 W · 25 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | -23%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6956…dd15backed Yes | 14c | 577$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.36 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28c8…a94dbacked Yes | 14c | 553$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.97 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +52%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e69…d7e4backed Yes | 17c | 541.3$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.69 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -2.8wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x04d7…b035backed Yes | 9c | 513.7$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.77 | 178 | 21.3%38 W · 140 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x506a…1b43backed Yes | 14c | 472$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.55 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x66a1…80d9backed Yes | 2c | 449.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 71 | 21.1%15 W · 56 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc094…c8d4backed Yes | 15c | 443.82$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.84 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -51.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf25d…8b1ebacked Yes | 11c | 434.08$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.62 | 37 | 45.9%17 W · 20 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x34fc…d14dbacked Yes | 14c | 431$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.19 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x336f…c31ebacked Yes | 14c | 422$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.86 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf7…2e27backed Yes | 3c | 414.45$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.01 | 111 | 4.5%5 W · 106 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8aac…0e7abacked Yes | 15c | 386$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.85 | 28 | 28.6%8 W · 20 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -50.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2fc2…f8aabacked Yes | 3c | 351.87$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 17 | 0%0 W · 17 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13b5…e2d1backed Yes | 14c | 346.11$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd41…3796backed Yes | 14c | 340$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.94 | 23 | 69.6%16 W · 7 L | +5.6wins | +0.24per pick | 45cpaid | +107.7%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xf0f3…5dbdbacked Yes | 15c | 338.66$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.83 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 21cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed53…8d7dbacked Yes | 3c | 322.06$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.69 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -68.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b8c…d758backed Yes | 12c | 318$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.16 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.13per pick | 27cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c3…7dd2backed Yes | 16c | 314.78$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.64 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +101.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc0e1…a2f5backed Yes | 4c | 300.27$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.81 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x39be…5e7bbacked Yes | 7c | 295$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.36 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa45c…1d10backed Yes | 20c | 289$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.01 | 48 | 27.1%13 W · 35 L | -2.3wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38d6…d10abacked Yes | 13c | 279.86$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.38 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x38e5…95e7backed Yes | 11c | 272.99$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.18 | 130 | 40%52 W · 78 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcdb8…f285backed Yes | 6c | 269$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.87 | 38 | 36.8%14 W · 24 L | -2.8wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -44%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x416b…bad6backed Yes | 7c | 254.77$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.09 | 55 | 23.6%13 W · 42 L | -2.7wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -52.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf81…e590backed Yes | 9c | 254.77$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.63 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.12per pick | 39cpaid | -62.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8a16…0c03backed Yes | 6c | 253$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.94 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x12e2…85b7backed Yes | 11c | 221$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.21 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -2.2wins | -0.13per pick | 42cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdce0…7260backed Yes | 18c | 208$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.65 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | +2.5wins | +0.10per pick | 36cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe5d6…4d05backed Yes | 15c | 200.53$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2675…2374backed Yes | 11c | 200$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.8 | 62 | 29%18 W · 44 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x895d…3778backed Yes | 14c | 200$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.4 | 55 | 23.6%13 W · 42 L | +5.8wins | +0.11per pick | 13cpaid | +138.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…8085backed Yes | 6c | 197$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.62 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | +2.7wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x358d…7602backed Yes | 7c | 185$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.58 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f6a…53e0backed Yes | 6c | 185$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.47 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | +3.0wins | +0.13per pick | 43cpaid | +32.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7b…4229backed Yes | 13c | 177$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.01 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2560…0b02backed Yes | 21c | 170$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.7 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 34cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x59f3…a7fabacked Yes | 7c | 159$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.45 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae18…1132backed Yes | 7c | 157$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.52 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4bcd…e98bbacked Yes | 11c | 147$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.46 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f6…595cbacked Yes | 9c | 135$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.56 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa55b…857bbacked Yes | 14c | 135$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.04 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 11c | 127.92$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.45 | 484 | 14%68 W · 416 L | -39.3wins | -0.08per pick | 22cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x768b…de48backed Yes | 17c | 116.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9720…f4d1backed Yes | 11c | 113$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.09 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22e7…9bc7backed Yes | 14c | 107$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.09 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.29per pick | 46cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7780…a743backed Yes | 20c | 100.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -1.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x82a0…14b3backed Yes | 22c | 100.38$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.9 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4132…1708backed Yes | 20c | 99.62$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Yes | 13c | 95.54$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.13 | 170 | 10%17 W · 153 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x795b…3572backed Yes | 14c | 89$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.46 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x708a…68b9backed Yes | 18c | 88$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.49 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc81b…edfbbacked Yes | 15c | 80$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +2.4wins | +0.34per pick | 38cpaid | +72.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd7a8…7efabacked Yes | 14c | 78$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +3.5wins | +0.20per pick | 39cpaid | +79.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc802…3570backed Yes | 18c | 75.92$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.59 | 21 | 9.5%2 W · 19 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 15cpaid | -71.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3ad7…86bfbacked Yes | 22c | 49.41$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1bcb…b470backed No | 78c | 34$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.45 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Marty Supreme win Best Film Editing at the 98th Academy Awards?this page
- Will A House of Dynamite win Best Film Editing at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
- Will Avatar: Fire and Ash win Best Film Editing at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
- Will Bugonia win Best Film Editing at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
- Will F1: The Movie win Best Film Editing at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
- Will Frankenstein win Best Film Editing at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
- Will Hamnet win Best Film Editing at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
- Will No Other Choice win Best Film Editing at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
- Will One Battle After Another win Best Film Editing at the 98th Academy Awards?Yes won
- Will Sentimental Value win Best Film Editing at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
- Will Sinners win Best Film Editing at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
- Will Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere win Best Film Editing at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
- Will Wicked: For Good win Best Film Editing at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.