TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Movies · resolved market

Will Marty Supreme win Best Film Editing at the 98th Academy Awards?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$215,631

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $215,631 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 98 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Movies
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x5711…2f81backed Yes6c3,615$210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21040%0 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xea07…02d9backed Yes1c2,903$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.3210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0753…f478backed Yes1c2,832$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.3110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4f83…8390backed Yes1c2,779$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.6720%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4588…4a56backed Yes1c2,637$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.4610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes7c2,439$179 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$179.351,3948%111 W · 1,283 L-47.9wins-0.03per pick11cpaid-50%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8f13…daaebacked Yes5c2,232$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106.25458.9%4 W · 41 L-2.2wins-0.05per pick14cpaid-76.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb79e…920cbacked Yes1c2,175$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.0510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4452…c7cabacked Yes1c2,118$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.8340%0 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1865…34f0backed Yes1c2,092$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.8220%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9e94…9c83backed Yes1c2,021$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.1510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb968…b94ebacked Yes1c1,922$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.4520%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x70af…e586backed Yes1c1,886$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0aba…ee0cbacked Yes1c1,859$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.0110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcff9…2d02backed Yes1c1,736$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.1520%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x07c8…a6d6backed Yes1c1,546$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.8210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x88c3…0871backed Yes1c1,525$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.6820%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa9d1…7009backed Yes1c1,524$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.6730%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x742c…acc0backed Yes15c1,519$232 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$231.682920.7%6 W · 23 L-1.8wins-0.06per pick27cpaid+18.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes1c1,433$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.23983.1%3 W · 95 L-2.2wins-0.02per pick5cpaid-89%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9836…6f2ebacked Yes4c1,331$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50922.2%2 W · 7 L+0.9wins+0.10per pick12cpaid+71.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa89e…e87fbacked Yes1c1,120$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa1b7…c8a1backed Yes2c1,120$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.640%0 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4a1f…1a9fbacked Yes7c1,054$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.329021.1%19 W · 71 L0.0wins0.00per pick21cpaid-25.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa815…9cbebacked Yes6c1,016$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.84894.5%4 W · 85 L-1.2wins-0.01per pick6cpaid-42.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x115a…e4a6backed Yes2c999.98$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15263.8%1 W · 25 L-2.0wins-0.08per pick12cpaid-85.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x57d4…ac0dbacked Yes3c951.43$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.2117041.8%71 W · 99 L+10.8wins+0.06per pick35cpaid+19.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x417f…19cfbacked Yes1c949.46$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.23616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.10per pick26cpaid-75.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9474…5091backed Yes6c933.79$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.341549.7%15 W · 139 L-2.1wins-0.01per pick11cpaid-30%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x85be…5ec1backed Yes13c794.99$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.61922.2%2 W · 7 L-0.6wins-0.07per pick29cpaid-64.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1fa8…2bcdbacked Yes11c749$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.41450%7 W · 7 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-26.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa0b7…42f6backed Yes15c741.32$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112.1530%0 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf058…2f88backed Yes15c718.63$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$107.710%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1294…9151backed Yes18c710$129 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$128.512623.1%6 W · 20 L-2.0wins-0.08per pick31cpaid-52.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x64c9…6bdebacked Yes13c690$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.462729.6%8 W · 19 L-3.8wins-0.14per pick44cpaid-50.7%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xefac…c9a1backed Yes18c674.63$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$119.6348236.3%175 W · 307 L+8.4wins+0.02per pick35cpaid-9.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7171…7af9backed Yes2c625$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10520%1 W · 4 L+0.8wins+0.16per pick4cpaid+239.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5693…c20ebacked Yes3c609.75$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.5610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x44aa…d1d5backed Yes15c600$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.64366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.35per pick32cpaid+123.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x85dc…7ebfbacked Yes4c580.43$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.693119.4%6 W · 25 L+0.1wins0.00per pick19cpaid-23%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6956…dd15backed Yes14c577$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.36650%3 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+5.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x28c8…a94dbacked Yes14c553$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.97650%3 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.09per pick41cpaid+52%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7e69…d7e4backed Yes17c541.3$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.6980%0 W · 8 L-2.8wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x04d7…b035backed Yes9c513.7$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.7717821.3%38 W · 140 L+2.7wins+0.02per pick20cpaid-12.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x506a…1b43backed Yes14c472$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.551250%6 W · 6 L+0.9wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x66a1…80d9backed Yes2c449.99$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.27121.1%15 W · 56 L+1.2wins+0.02per pick19cpaid-33.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc094…c8d4backed Yes15c443.82$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.841729.4%5 W · 12 L-1.3wins-0.07per pick37cpaid-51.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf25d…8b1ebacked Yes11c434.08$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.623745.9%17 W · 20 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-17.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x34fc…d14dbacked Yes14c431$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.192642.3%11 W · 15 L-0.1wins0.00per pick43cpaid+7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x336f…c31ebacked Yes14c422$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.862128.6%6 W · 15 L-1.1wins-0.05per pick34cpaid-42.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xaaf7…2e27backed Yes3c414.45$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.011114.5%5 W · 106 L+2.7wins+0.02per pick2cpaid-15.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8aac…0e7abacked Yes15c386$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.852828.6%8 W · 20 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick30cpaid-50.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2fc2…f8aabacked Yes3c351.87$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10170%0 W · 17 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x13b5…e2d1backed Yes14c346.11$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50616.7%1 W · 5 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick16cpaid-27.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfd41…3796backed Yes14c340$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.942369.6%16 W · 7 L+5.6wins+0.24per pick45cpaid+107.7%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0xf0f3…5dbdbacked Yes15c338.66$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.83616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick21cpaid-34.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xed53…8d7dbacked Yes3c322.06$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.69520%1 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick20cpaid-68.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7b8c…d758backed Yes12c318$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.16540%2 W · 3 L+0.6wins+0.13per pick27cpaid+7.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa8c3…7dd2backed Yes16c314.78$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.642437.5%9 W · 15 L+1.1wins+0.05per pick33cpaid+101.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc0e1…a2f5backed Yes4c300.27$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.8110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x39be…5e7bbacked Yes7c295$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.362138.1%8 W · 13 L-1.1wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-13.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa45c…1d10backed Yes20c289$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.014827.1%13 W · 35 L-2.3wins-0.05per pick32cpaid-4.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x38d6…d10abacked Yes13c279.86$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.381526.7%4 W · 11 L0.0wins0.00per pick27cpaid-26.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x38e5…95e7backed Yes11c272.99$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.1813040%52 W · 78 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-13.5%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xcdb8…f285backed Yes6c269$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.873836.8%14 W · 24 L-2.8wins-0.07per pick44cpaid-44%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x416b…bad6backed Yes7c254.77$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.095523.6%13 W · 42 L-2.7wins-0.05per pick29cpaid-52.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xbf81…e590backed Yes9c254.77$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.631127.3%3 W · 8 L-1.3wins-0.12per pick39cpaid-62.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8a16…0c03backed Yes6c253$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.941741.2%7 W · 10 L-1.1wins-0.06per pick48cpaid-33.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x12e2…85b7backed Yes11c221$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.211729.4%5 W · 12 L-2.2wins-0.13per pick42cpaid-34.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xdce0…7260backed Yes18c208$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.652646.2%12 W · 14 L+2.5wins+0.10per pick36cpaid+14.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xe5d6…4d05backed Yes15c200.53$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30650%3 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.06per pick44cpaid-14.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2675…2374backed Yes11c200$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.86229%18 W · 44 L+1.2wins+0.02per pick27cpaid-12.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x895d…3778backed Yes14c200$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.45523.6%13 W · 42 L+5.8wins+0.11per pick13cpaid+138.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xda77…8085backed Yes6c197$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.622650%13 W · 13 L+2.7wins+0.11per pick39cpaid+9.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x358d…7602backed Yes7c185$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.582245.5%10 W · 12 L-1.3wins-0.06per pick51cpaid-32.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9f6a…53e0backed Yes6c185$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.472356.5%13 W · 10 L+3.0wins+0.13per pick43cpaid+32.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x0a7b…4229backed Yes13c177$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.01250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.05per pick45cpaid-34.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2560…0b02backed Yes21c170$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.71526.7%4 W · 11 L-1.1wins-0.07per pick34cpaid-39.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x59f3…a7fabacked Yes7c159$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.45944.4%4 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick44cpaid-22.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xae18…1132backed Yes7c157$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.523141.9%13 W · 18 L-1.5wins-0.05per pick47cpaid-24.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4bcd…e98bbacked Yes11c147$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.462737%10 W · 17 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-4.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe1f6…595cbacked Yes9c135$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.561936.8%7 W · 12 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick39cpaid+15.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa55b…857bbacked Yes14c135$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.041040%4 W · 6 L-0.6wins-0.06per pick46cpaid-35.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes11c127.92$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.4548414%68 W · 416 L-39.3wins-0.08per pick22cpaid-43.2%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x768b…de48backed Yes17c116.26$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2020%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x9720…f4d1backed Yes11c113$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.093243.8%14 W · 18 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-4.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x22e7…9bc7backed Yes14c107$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.09475%3 W · 1 L+1.2wins+0.29per pick46cpaid+42.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7780…a743backed Yes20c100.5$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20120%0 W · 12 L-1.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x82a0…14b3backed Yes22c100.38$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.91435.7%5 W · 9 L-1.1wins-0.08per pick44cpaid-41.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4132…1708backed Yes20c99.62$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x945a…a48cbacked Yes13c95.54$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.1317010%17 W · 153 L-3.7wins-0.02per pick12cpaid-36.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x795b…3572backed Yes14c89$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.4610%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x708a…68b9backed Yes18c88$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.492231.8%7 W · 15 L-0.9wins-0.04per pick36cpaid-6.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc81b…edfbbacked Yes15c80$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12771.4%5 W · 2 L+2.4wins+0.34per pick38cpaid+72.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xd7a8…7efabacked Yes14c78$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111758.8%10 W · 7 L+3.5wins+0.20per pick39cpaid+79.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xc802…3570backed Yes18c75.92$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.59219.5%2 W · 19 L-1.2wins-0.06per pick15cpaid-71.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3ad7…86bfbacked Yes22c49.41$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111136.4%4 W · 7 L-0.8wins-0.07per pick44cpaid-29.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1bcb…b470backed No78c34$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.451100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+28%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.