Weather · resolved market
Will the U.S. flu hospitalization rate per 100,000 in Week 5 be between 60 and 70?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8ab5dbd4d6c9aacdde4bb188ae32bcb69cba0276e35ff65adb69c21e1eb982df
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,119
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,284
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,119 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3d04…131dbacked Yes | 77c | 1,028$792 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$236.44 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9859…0176backed Yes | 80c | 867$694 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.4 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ec3…db2abacked Yes | 77c | 824$634 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$189.52 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +2.0wins | +0.33per pick | 50cpaid | +83.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x293b…c83bbacked Yes | 77c | 717$552 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.91 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -1.7wins | -0.12per pick | 48cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4e9c…d1bebacked No | 20c | 700$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.4 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.9wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0042…e62fbacked Yes | 80c | 640$512 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.7wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +52.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x805a…735dbacked No | 23c | 600$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ea6…32d9backed No | 23c | 566$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.18 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43d7…54a7backed No | 20c | 491$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.2 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb25…5b6bbacked No | 23c | 477$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.71 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +64.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1b8…84e3backed No | 22c | 472$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.84 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +79.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa78e…74b0backed Yes | 78c | 472$368 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.84 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 55cpaid | +46.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c9a…f183backed Yes | 77c | 468$360 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.64 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -44.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7bd4…c334backed No | 23c | 468$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.64 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +29.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0ed0…0532backed Yes | 76c | 454$345 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.96 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6787…8884backed No | 24c | 454$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.96 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.10per pick | 52cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3859…7359backed No | 25c | 387$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.21 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -67.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf58d…a617backed No | 20c | 376$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.2 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c19…77cdbacked No | 23c | 347$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.81 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.14per pick | 49cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x58d4…e1efbacked Yes | 75c | 333$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.25 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +36.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaec9…3213backed No | 23c | 253$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.19 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe4d9…2a4ebacked No | 13c | 210$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.3 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -45%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x64c9…6bdebacked No | 23c | 175$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.25 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf6ef…095ebacked No | 23c | 151$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.73 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.3wins | +0.12per pick | 43cpaid | +45.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 18c | 92.58$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.84 | 437 | 13.3%58 W · 379 L | -78.8wins | -0.18per pick | 31cpaid | -63.2%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 14c | 84.51$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.13 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2cb2…0896backed No | 20c | 52$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd883…4fd7backed Yes | 75c | 45$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.45 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +1.8wins | +0.10per pick | 60cpaid | +84.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe4c0…184abacked Yes | 77c | 22.6$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507b…0742backed Yes | 78c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.5 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.09per pick | 62cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x86d7…73e9backed Yes | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 71cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdba2…2e20backed Yes | 78c | 17.18$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.78 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.