TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x2cb2…0896

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
38
Categories scored
11
Categories below 50
7

Best Category: Us Midterms, grading 52 out of 100 (+0.02 per pick).

Best Category Us Midterms at 52 out of 100; worst Cricket at 40.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Tweets Inactivelast resolved Jul 20, 2026, EDT1127.3%3 W · 8 L-1.3wins-0.12per pick39cpaid-64.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
Tweets — the 11 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tweets, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Donald Trump post 80-99 Truth Social posts from July 14 to July 21, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.19
Will Donald Trump post 60-79 Truth Social posts from July 14 to July 21, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$11.37
Will CZ post 0-19 posts from July 7 to July 14, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$15
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from July 3 to July 10, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 9, 2026, EDT+29.9%+$7.58
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 26 to July 3, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$17Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 3, 2026, EDT+25.8%+$4.28
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 25 to June 27, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 27, 2026, EDT+34.5%+$10.43
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from February 3 to February 10, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$23Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 10, 2026, EST-100%-$22.69
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from February 3 to February 10, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 9, 2026, EST-100%-$16
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from February 3 to February 10, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 9, 2026, EST-100%-$13
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from February 3 to February 10, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$42Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 9, 2026, EST-100%-$42.48
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from January 31 to February 2, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 2, 2026, EST-100%-$17.47
All 11 picks, newest first.
Premier League Inactivelast resolved Mar 4, 2026, EST944.4%4 W · 5 L-2.0wins-0.23per pick67cpaid-35.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
Premier League — the 9 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Premier League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-03-04?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST-100%-$11.55
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-03-04?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST+69.5%+$8.34
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-03-03?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2026, EST-100%-$15
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-02-12?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$44Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 12, 2026, EST-100%-$44.16
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-02-11?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$38Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 11, 2026, EST+46.1%+$17.61
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-02-11?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$37Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 11, 2026, EST+38.6%+$14.36
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-02-10?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 10, 2026, EST-100%-$15
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-02-10?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 10, 2026, EST-100%-$10
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-02-07?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 7, 2026, EST+28.2%+$5.64
All 9 picks, newest first.
La Liga Inactivelast resolved Mar 7, 2026, EST560%3 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick60cpaid+10.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
La Liga — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in La Liga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Cricket Inactivelast resolved Jul 11, 2026, EDT50%0 W · 5 L-2.7wins-0.53per pick53cpaid-100%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
Cricket — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Cricket, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jun 30, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.09per pick59cpaid-35.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will France win on 2026-06-30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2026, EDT+29.9%+$5.99
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-29?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$17
All 2 picks, newest first.
Us Midterms Inactivelast resolved Feb 11, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.52per pick48cpaid+106.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Us Midterms — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Midterms, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Tom Malinowski be the Democratic nominee for the NJ-11 special election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 11, 2026, EST+106.6%+$26.83
All 1 picks, newest first.
Bundesliga Inactivelast resolved Feb 7, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.44per pick56cpaid+77.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Bundesliga — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Bundesliga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will BV Borussia 09 Dortmund win on 2026-02-07?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 7, 2026, EST+77.6%+$19.4
All 1 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Feb 18, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.33per pick67cpaid+49.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Middle East — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Odds of Khamenei being out as Supreme Leader by March 31 over 20% in February?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$40Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 18, 2026, EST+49.3%+$19.47
All 1 picks, newest first.
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Feb 3, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the government shutdown last 7 days or more?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 3, 2026, EST-100%-$18.34
All 1 picks, newest first.
Weather Inactivelast resolved Feb 13, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Weather — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Weather, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the U.S. flu hospitalization rate per 100,000 in Week 5 be between 60 and 70?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 13, 2026, EST-100%-$10.4
All 1 picks, newest first.
Asian League Inactivelast resolved Feb 2, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.52per pick52cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Asian League — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Asian League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Al Hilal Saudi Club win on 2026-02-02?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 2, 2026, EST-100%-$11
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.