Us Midterms · resolved market
Will Tom Malinowski be the Democratic nominee for the NJ-11 special election?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9442842086508b4480b69eed2820ff5a7128540175cd67e5e5ab6960ec3c8c4a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Midtermsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $33,837
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $31,866
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $33,837 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Midterms is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1c14…0869backed No | 3c | 1,736$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,690.18 | 107 | 40.2%43 W · 64 L | +8.2wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +52.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Yes | 21c | 1,727$356 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$356.3 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6291…cc47backed Yes | 19c | 1,433$274 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$273.55 | 244 | 33.2%81 W · 163 L | +11.3wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4619…3f91backed Yes | 73c | 1,355$987 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$987.13 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed No | 6c | 1,010$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$954.38 | 180 | 26.1%47 W · 133 L | -4.9wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0781…c4ffbacked No | 48c | 622.18$297 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$324.82 | 196 | 31.1%61 W · 135 L | -7.4wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked No | 64c | 566$362 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$203.96 | 248 | 61.7%153 W · 95 L | +24.3wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xbb50…7bfcbacked No | 13c | 352.53$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$305.16 | 31 | 54.8%17 W · 14 L | +2.5wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +40.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 18c | 289.8$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$238.21 | 211 | 55.9%118 W · 93 L | +6.3wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc9…ace5backed Yes | 8c | 269.19$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.72 | 58 | 5.2%3 W · 55 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc684…2228backed No | 34c | 226.83$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.87 | 154 | 45.5%70 W · 84 L | +5.3wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 34c | 200.51$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.72 | 669 | 14.8%99 W · 570 L | -105.6wins | -0.16per pick | 31cpaid | -66%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x2707…0afabacked Yes | 80c | 200$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 44 | 25%11 W · 33 L | -2.4wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed Yes | 53c | 194.01$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.83 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8c1…8c6bbacked No | 6c | 173.75$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.94per pick | 6cpaid | +1,578.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 33c | 163.76$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.39 | 66 | 53%35 W · 31 L | +4.5wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7dc4…a38dbacked No | 27c | 153$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.39 | 62 | 51.6%32 W · 30 L | +6.6wins | +0.11per pick | 41cpaid | +54.2%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed No | 31c | 148.86$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.37 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 72c | 139.32$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.6 | 68 | 45.6%31 W · 37 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe0bc…5601backed Yes | 79c | 135.01$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.79per pick | 79cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x26f8…c102backed No | 26c | 132.94$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.94 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +2.0wins | +0.19per pick | 36cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5b5a…c0bcbacked Yes | 13c | 126.08$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.92 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 23c | 125.32$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.94 | 121 | 50.4%61 W · 60 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x65e8…630fbacked No | 79c | 110$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.51 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x756a…c2dbbacked No | 79c | 100$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.28 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +27%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7fe…1e42backed No | 18c | 99.74$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.04 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe474…9b56backed No | 76c | 90$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.79 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8975…ffe6backed Yes | 67c | 87.66$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.17 | 32 | 75%24 W · 8 L | +2.0wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8728…0882backed No | 19c | 82.99$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.99 | 180 | 41.1%74 W · 106 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c8d…2f80backed No | 71c | 82.88$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.21 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +41.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7bfe…b139backed No | 71c | 81.85$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.1 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +41.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa912…297fbacked No | 41c | 68.17$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.17 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfd9…2c47backed No | 66c | 60$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.66 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +52.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9048…2759backed No | 37c | 54.05$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.05 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +2.9wins | +0.22per pick | 47cpaid | +38.6%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdd53…933cbacked No | 64c | 52.68$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.05 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2cb2…0896backed No | 48c | 52$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.83 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +106.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38fc…33e2backed Yes | 80c | 47.41$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.75 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 72cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0748…103bbacked Yes | 75c | 46$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.5 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 42c | 42$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.36 | 495 | 11.5%57 W · 438 L | -17.6wins | -0.04per pick | 15cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2301…d847backed No | 65c | 40$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.85 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38e5…95e7backed No | 30c | 36$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.11 | 210 | 33.3%70 W · 140 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6c4…86a9backed Yes | 74c | 30$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.15 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd575…619fbacked Yes | 75c | 26.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.75per pick | 75cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x098f…47cdbacked No | 69c | 23$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.13 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | -2.2wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x72b3…1c03backed Yes | 70c | 16$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.70per pick | 70cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Tom Malinowski be the Democratic nominee for the NJ-11 special election?this page
- Will Analilia Mejia be the Democratic nominee for the NJ-11 special election?Yes won
- Will Brendan Gill be the Democratic nominee for the NJ-11 special election?No won
- Will Cammie Croft be the Democratic nominee for the NJ-11 special election?No won
- Will Tahesha Way be the Democratic nominee for the NJ-11 special election?No won
- Will Zach Beecher be the Democratic nominee for the NJ-11 special election?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.