Us Midterms · resolved market
Will Brendan Gill be the Democratic nominee for the NJ-11 special election?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x04d278fb718c49203a375eee07a40a54fa83ff156f3e9f4e7120995fb7aa7a40
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Midtermsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,452
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,889
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,452 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 15 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Midterms is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x91be…2641backed Yes | 11c | 1,273$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.03 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x92c3…bd0ebacked Yes | 13c | 754.26$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.62 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2cc7…5536backed Yes | 8c | 613$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.41 | 30 | 26.7%8 W · 22 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 10c | 360$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.24 | 495 | 11.5%57 W · 438 L | -17.6wins | -0.04per pick | 15cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed Yes | 7c | 359.1$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.14 | 37 | 18.9%7 W · 30 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 20c | 213.37$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.13 | 669 | 14.8%99 W · 570 L | -105.6wins | -0.16per pick | 31cpaid | -66%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x0781…c4ffbacked Yes | 18c | 171$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.36 | 196 | 31.1%61 W · 135 L | -7.4wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c41…133ebacked Yes | 34c | 155$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.2 | 61 | 54.1%33 W · 28 L | +3.5wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Yes | 47c | 87$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.78 | 248 | 61.7%153 W · 95 L | +24.3wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8728…0882backed Yes | 15c | 83$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.48 | 180 | 41.1%74 W · 106 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xab72…b70dbacked Yes | 56c | 53.74$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 22cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x098f…47cdbacked No | 53c | 39$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.48 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | -2.2wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8975…ffe6backed No | 77c | 35.61$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.19 | 32 | 75%24 W · 8 L | +2.0wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa1b9…e6d3backed No | 49c | 22.63$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.61 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +2.1wins | +0.23per pick | 43cpaid | +32.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1f4d…bd49backed No | 71c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.35 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Brendan Gill be the Democratic nominee for the NJ-11 special election?this page
- Will Analilia Mejia be the Democratic nominee for the NJ-11 special election?Yes won
- Will Cammie Croft be the Democratic nominee for the NJ-11 special election?No won
- Will Tahesha Way be the Democratic nominee for the NJ-11 special election?No won
- Will Tom Malinowski be the Democratic nominee for the NJ-11 special election?No won
- Will Zach Beecher be the Democratic nominee for the NJ-11 special election?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.