Us Midterms · resolved market
Will Analilia Mejia be the Democratic nominee for the NJ-11 special election?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x26738f0ac4a4bec0260332cfd9c881e453c73f7475d946db3b3b6cc32f0e6f6a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Midtermsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $35,894
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $42,872
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $35,894 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 17 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Midterms is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6fa5…0ddfbacked Yes | 6c | 3,881$245 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,635.97 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.94per pick | 6cpaid | +1,485.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcb3b…a2b6backed No | 1c | 901.43$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.11 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c9e…db3dbacked No | 2c | 805.3$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.45 | 104 | 1%1 W · 103 L | -3.7wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -88.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdf…8cb7backed No | 4c | 487.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc684…2228backed No | 77c | 440.47$341 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$340.83 | 154 | 45.5%70 W · 84 L | +5.3wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6291…cc47backed Yes | 41c | 337.77$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200.74 | 244 | 33.2%81 W · 163 L | +11.3wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x369f…2422backed Yes | 19c | 327.56$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$265.06 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +1.4wins | +0.12per pick | 24cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3b1a…4221backed No | 79c | 305.52$242 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$241.5 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -3.0wins | -0.15per pick | 40cpaid | -59.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x07ee…8dfebacked Yes | 4c | 269.89$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$257.85 | 57 | 47.4%27 W · 30 L | +8.6wins | +0.15per pick | 32cpaid | +69.2%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 10c | 199.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$179.78 | 669 | 14.8%99 W · 570 L | -105.6wins | -0.16per pick | 31cpaid | -66%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked No | 26c | 194.24$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.34 | 124 | 40.3%50 W · 74 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed No | 33c | 147.77$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.16 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0633…d517backed No | 14c | 105.9$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x853c…bd03backed No | 13c | 100.25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +2.0wins | +0.20per pick | 40cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa912…297fbacked No | 61c | 93.08$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.82 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked No | 78c | 65$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.95 | 248 | 61.7%153 W · 95 L | +24.3wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc9…ace5backed Yes | 44c | 55.05$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.05 | 58 | 5.2%3 W · 55 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Analilia Mejia be the Democratic nominee for the NJ-11 special election?this page
- Will Brendan Gill be the Democratic nominee for the NJ-11 special election?No won
- Will Cammie Croft be the Democratic nominee for the NJ-11 special election?No won
- Will Tahesha Way be the Democratic nominee for the NJ-11 special election?No won
- Will Tom Malinowski be the Democratic nominee for the NJ-11 special election?No won
- Will Zach Beecher be the Democratic nominee for the NJ-11 special election?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.