Stocks · resolved market
Will Bitcoin outperform NVIDIA (NVDA) in April 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x08cf32d2b69c0f573360ea57b3c4d5949e27317509b293513bb70104f4f44ab3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Stocksevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,212
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,811
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,212 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Stocks is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Stocks | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbb28…74f4backed No | 44c | 1,660$730 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$929.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.56per pick | 44cpaid | +127.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5829…e46bbacked Yes | 56c | 1,362$763 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$762.72 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +284.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x842b…b366backed No | 60c | 347.84$207 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.47 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.11per pick | 59cpaid | +8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd632…8afbbacked No | 41c | 321.69$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188.78 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x64c9…6bdebacked Yes | 56c | 298$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.88 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x96c2…8df5backed Yes | 46c | 241.09$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +40.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x34b0…3c56backed Yes | 6c | 213.77$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.83 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 15cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed Yes | 31c | 213.77$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.27 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x86dd…1af2backed No | 56c | 126.24$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.9 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.34per pick | 54cpaid | -64.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8d02…2753backed No | 68c | 124.3$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.3 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 10c | 107.03$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.7 | 1,444 | 8.8%127 W · 1,317 L | -53.5wins | -0.04per pick | 12cpaid | -59.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4a5d…17adbacked No | 60c | 81.9$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.9 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x40e0…69e3backed Yes | 66c | 75$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.7 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30a0…a458backed No | 40c | 68.12$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.87 | 49 | 10.2%5 W · 44 L | -5.5wins | -0.11per pick | 21cpaid | -71.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked Yes | 39c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 34 | 50%17 W · 17 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcceb…f030backed Yes | 31c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 273 | 38.1%104 W · 169 L | -19.6wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked No | 77c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.62 | 108 | 79.6%86 W · 22 L | +6.6wins | +0.06per pick | 74cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7563…ac05backed Yes | 69c | 50$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.5 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3ee5…1d4abacked Yes | 58c | 43.45$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaced…f7f9backed No | 53c | 40$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a1d…7a15backed No | 52c | 40$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa08…82b2backed No | 52c | 40$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3447…49ebbacked No | 45c | 40$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +122.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 67c | 36$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.12 | 863 | 38.1%329 W · 534 L | -43.0wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4916…f56fbacked No | 53c | 34.61$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.4 | 58 | 44.8%26 W · 32 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7de…41c5backed Yes | 64c | 31.41$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 44c | 29.23$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.74 | 293 | 23.2%68 W · 225 L | -31.5wins | -0.11per pick | 34cpaid | -44.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x3008…5cb6backed No | 48c | 25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.05 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +109.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa42a…cb8ebacked Yes | 68c | 24.78$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.85 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 68cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b43…33cebacked No | 57c | 24.52$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.42 | 20 | 85%17 W · 3 L | +3.5wins | +0.17per pick | 68cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9422…f273backed No | 56c | 23.14$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.15 | 62 | 56.5%35 W · 27 L | +2.9wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35a4…7b85backed No | 60c | 19.01$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.52 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c30…d8abbacked No | 70c | 18.6$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.63 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +43.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4060…3ec3backed No | 57c | 17.8$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.65 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.8wins | +0.26per pick | 46cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1479…eb67backed No | 66c | 15.9$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.44 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +52%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Stocks and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Bitcoin outperform NVIDIA (NVDA) in April 2026?this page
- Will Bitcoin outperform Gold in April 2026?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin outperform Silver in April 2026?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin outperform the S&P 500 in April 2026?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.