Stocks · resolved market
Will Bitcoin outperform Gold in April 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x57b84034d062703d66bb77c6acde7e8098fdb6685f2b779836c0dafa85717ea1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Stocksevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,390
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,898
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,390 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 58 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Stocks is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Stocks | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd824…528bbacked No | 56c | 1,725$966 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$966 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +316.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e47…db27backed Yes | 44c | 867$381 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$485.52 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.56per pick | 44cpaid | +127.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb2b…a065backed Yes | 44c | 858$378 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$480.48 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.56per pick | 44cpaid | +127.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcae3…288bbacked Yes | 71c | 429.99$304 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.3 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +52.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee9e…efb7backed No | 55c | 340$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +156.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4b72…cd8ebacked No | 55c | 281$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.55 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd632…8afbbacked Yes | 44c | 272.5$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.64 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7fab…13e0backed Yes | 77c | 261.05$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.05 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +30.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f9a…6fb2backed Yes | 45c | 211$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.05 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +122.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbcc1…d40bbacked Yes | 45c | 211$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.05 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +122.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x035b…05e7backed Yes | 59c | 200$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +70.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb75…f496backed No | 10c | 200$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 29 | 10.3%3 W · 26 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee98…113dbacked Yes | 51c | 200$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -2.6wins | -0.37per pick | 51cpaid | -72%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6203…83bfbacked No | 20c | 200$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d7c…a11bbacked Yes | 45c | 199$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.45 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +2.3wins | +0.76per pick | 24cpaid | +468.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9e9a…a9a8backed No | 50c | 160$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x86dd…1af2backed No | 53c | 159.42$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.9 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.34per pick | 54cpaid | -64.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 23c | 146.17$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.01 | 1,443 | 8.8%127 W · 1,316 L | -53.1wins | -0.04per pick | 12cpaid | -59.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 27c | 143.27$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.73 | 199 | 34.2%68 W · 131 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35b4…cc0cbacked No | 65c | 124.9$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.34 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.65per pick | 65cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9660…8bb6backed No | 42c | 123.07$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.69 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x49b1…0f4dbacked No | 51c | 122.95$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.53 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -2.1wins | -0.15per pick | 37cpaid | -58.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc18b…3917backed No | 24c | 117.24$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.74 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | +3.0wins | +0.20per pick | 13cpaid | +136.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5fad…a796backed Yes | 56c | 110$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.65 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +79.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe41…9f23backed Yes | 67c | 100$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7563…ac05backed Yes | 69c | 100$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x000a…611abacked Yes | 68c | 100$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1137…4ed5backed No | 50c | 80$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -2.1wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf611…9c30backed No | 19c | 77.77$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 46c | 70.67$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.51 | 221 | 29%64 W · 157 L | -14.1wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -22%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0262…a9d2backed Yes | 52c | 65.27$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.47 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x941d…2baabacked Yes | 79c | 63.29$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.29 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c12…edfdbacked No | 23c | 60.9$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.92 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe5…8b99backed No | 55c | 60.19$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.15 | 107 | 49.5%53 W · 54 L | -5.0wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xde7d…62b2backed No | 54c | 59.47$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.86 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e92…1245backed Yes | 48c | 51.21$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.58 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +104%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked Yes | 75c | 50.09$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.77 | 34 | 50%17 W · 17 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2acb…4a1dbacked No | 38c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c92…3dc1backed No | 61c | 50$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.5 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.28per pick | 53cpaid | -66.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x971c…2712backed No | 61c | 50$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.5 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x29e3…6162backed No | 37c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x837c…8ad3backed No | 52c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.85 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xccd6…bccebacked Yes | 60c | 40.3$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.3 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +67.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ed0…30f7backed Yes | 40c | 39.68$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.81 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.60per pick | 40cpaid | +150%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x53a3…e5afbacked No | 26c | 38.29$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +20.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee9c…58edbacked Yes | 53c | 38$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +90%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb6c…ee14backed No | 55c | 35$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8c2a…ba61backed Yes | 60c | 32.04$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.74 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1631…e66fbacked No | 66c | 30.45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x489e…b5ffbacked Yes | 68c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 39c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 293 | 23.2%68 W · 225 L | -31.5wins | -0.11per pick | 34cpaid | -44.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x36f6…fa9fbacked Yes | 52c | 28.03$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.33 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +90.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe947…7a45backed Yes | 62c | 25.7$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.77 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed Yes | 68c | 25$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa42a…cb8ebacked Yes | 67c | 23.47$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.75 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 68cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9bf2…442bbacked No | 46c | 21.74$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -18%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcceb…f030backed Yes | 56c | 20.5$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.02 | 273 | 38.1%104 W · 169 L | -19.6wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x91aa…4679backed Yes | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Stocks and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Bitcoin outperform Gold in April 2026?this page
- Will Bitcoin outperform NVIDIA (NVDA) in April 2026?No won
- Will Bitcoin outperform Silver in April 2026?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin outperform the S&P 500 in April 2026?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.