Stocks · resolved market
Will Bitcoin outperform the S&P 500 in April 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1609277ff1f2755f4cdc8f9956c884d6be96e4877fe3636981a5da592caffed4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Stocksevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,740
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,895
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,740 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Stocks is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Stocks | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x842b…b366backed No | 49c | 732.56$357 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$356.96 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.11per pick | 59cpaid | +8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x777f…a1bbbacked Yes | 59c | 286$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.25 | 812 | 40.3%327 W · 485 L | +37.1wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1ee9…197fbacked Yes | 54c | 263.68$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.11 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xedc8…3296backed Yes | 45c | 230$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.46 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc18b…3917backed No | 44c | 201.77$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.94 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | +3.0wins | +0.20per pick | 13cpaid | +136.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x486e…6e5ebacked Yes | 60c | 166.67$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.67 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9746…8642backed No | 40c | 158.34$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.33 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86dd…1af2backed No | 48c | 129.7$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.16 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.34per pick | 54cpaid | -64.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 65c | 100$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 262 | 37%97 W · 165 L | -11.9wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa4dd…23ffbacked Yes | 67c | 100$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd632…8afbbacked No | 33c | 91.34$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.69 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x61ac…ddb4backed No | 45c | 66.4$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0888…72acbacked Yes | 49c | 61.37$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.37 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 53c | 60$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.2 | 42 | 50%21 W · 21 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked Yes | 51c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.67 | 34 | 50%17 W · 17 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e92…1245backed Yes | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +104%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe3d0…c81dbacked No | 59c | 50$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.59 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2891…fa1dbacked Yes | 66c | 50$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x971c…2712backed No | 44c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7563…ac05backed Yes | 69c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.5 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x29e3…6162backed No | 37c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c92…3dc1backed No | 44c | 49.99$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.28per pick | 53cpaid | -66.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3b7b…2d1abacked Yes | 55c | 49.95$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.68 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.20per pick | 55cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe5…8b99backed No | 53c | 48.47$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.77 | 107 | 49.5%53 W · 54 L | -5.0wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x53a3…e5afbacked No | 28c | 45.26$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.68 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +20.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 65c | 45.07$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.73 | 863 | 38.1%329 W · 534 L | -43.0wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfae5…0ddcbacked No | 50c | 44$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2acb…4a1dbacked No | 37c | 40$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xafba…d271backed No | 58c | 34.31$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 51c | 28.8$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.74 | 293 | 23.2%68 W · 225 L | -31.5wins | -0.11per pick | 34cpaid | -44.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 52c | 28.54$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.94 | 221 | 29%64 W · 157 L | -14.1wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -22%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x02ae…890cbacked Yes | 55c | 27.14$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.14 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +81%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa42a…cb8ebacked Yes | 68c | 25.07$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.02 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 68cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f91…c201backed Yes | 67c | 22.48$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.42 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a5d…17adbacked Yes | 54c | 20.38$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.38 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d3e…783bbacked Yes | 54c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6236…6881backed Yes | 58c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Stocks and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Bitcoin outperform the S&P 500 in April 2026?this page
- Will Bitcoin outperform Gold in April 2026?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin outperform NVIDIA (NVDA) in April 2026?No won
- Will Bitcoin outperform Silver in April 2026?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.