Music · resolved market
Will Arisa win Sanremo 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x70c3355255d5c16cddca321d6efeca0a755c87ced8df7e0b733f46682e362e02
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Musicevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,742
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,311
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,742 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Music is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Music | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x04d7…b035backed Yes | 13c | 2,686$356 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$356.17 | 148 | 35.8%53 W · 95 L | +9.1wins | +0.06per pick | 30cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9b06…0b42backed Yes | 11c | 1,648$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.53 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 24cpaid | -59.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x64c9…6bdebacked Yes | 13c | 656$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.28 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.15per pick | 45cpaid | -5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe8d5…1caebacked Yes | 13c | 528$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.64 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb8d…cf1bbacked Yes | 19c | 521.9$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -52.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b34…b202backed Yes | 13c | 419.99$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -43.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e2e…ef05backed Yes | 15c | 400$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 34cpaid | -72.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc0b4…d7fdbacked Yes | 17c | 396.79$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.02 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xba84…b857backed Yes | 14c | 357.14$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -70.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc24…728fbacked Yes | 20c | 327$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x822b…509abacked Yes | 27c | 309.07$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.74 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3dca…3c13backed No | 80c | 272.97$218 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.59 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf16d…b7f9backed Yes | 13c | 268.58$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.54 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 24cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f5c…91bfbacked Yes | 13c | 261$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.93 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -50.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6bd…1906backed Yes | 19c | 258.78$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdf1c…afa8backed Yes | 42c | 239.17$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 14c | 227.72$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.89 | 49 | 38.8%19 W · 30 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6ef…418dbacked Yes | 22c | 226.95$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc468…009dbacked Yes | 11c | 208.19$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.38 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1970…398dbacked Yes | 16c | 199.98$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 57 | 21.1%12 W · 45 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb403…5c40backed Yes | 18c | 168.3$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.8 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 30cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc82…c7c5backed Yes | 18c | 166.67$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1645…1caebacked Yes | 18c | 166.67$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe7da…296ebacked Yes | 19c | 163.1$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f2…736abacked Yes | 17c | 162.17$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.26 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x345d…4e41backed Yes | 11c | 146.59$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.39 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -61.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe083…6f3ebacked Yes | 13c | 131.03$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0320…a45abacked Yes | 19c | 124.07$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.57 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 68c | 107.45$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.42 | 47 | 51.1%24 W · 23 L | +3.1wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6bc6…2963backed Yes | 19c | 106.59$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6973…d6ebbacked Yes | 23c | 103.08$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe061…93f9backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 36 | 5.6%2 W · 34 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 4cpaid | +25.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 13c | 89.9$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.03 | 391 | 16.1%63 W · 328 L | -44.4wins | -0.11per pick | 27cpaid | -48.6%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x84cb…4b77backed Yes | 17c | 85$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -47.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f3e…b648backed Yes | 38c | 79.91$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 25c | 72$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 462 | 9.7%45 W · 417 L | -4.7wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc45…16e1backed Yes | 28c | 57.76$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5542…0207backed Yes | 39c | 46.67$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 69c | 38.33$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.78 | 64 | 51.6%33 W · 31 L | +2.8wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +16%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9a3f…914abacked No | 60c | 30.5$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.2 | 31 | 38.7%12 W · 19 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -24%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a08…2e25backed No | 66c | 29.41$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 76 | 26.3%20 W · 56 L | +3.3wins | +0.04per pick | 22cpaid | +32.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b43…33cebacked No | 74c | 25.36$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.5 | 26 | 73.1%19 W · 7 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 69cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa009…ab48backed No | 76c | 23$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.52 | 47 | 61.7%29 W · 18 L | +7.6wins | +0.16per pick | 46cpaid | +42.3%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x75d1…7a5fbacked No | 80c | 19.68$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.94 | 71 | 45.1%32 W · 39 L | -3.4wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Music and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Arisa win Sanremo 2026?this page
- Will Chiello win Sanremo 2026?No won
- Will Ditonellapiaga win Sanremo 2026?No won
- Will Ermal Meta win Sanremo 2026?No won
- Will Fedez & Marco Masini win Sanremo 2026?No won
- Will Levante win Sanremo 2026?No won
- Will Luchè win Sanremo 2026?No won
- Will Malika Ayane win Sanremo 2026?No won
- Will Michele Bravi win Sanremo 2026?No won
- Will Nayt win Sanremo 2026?No won
- Will Sal Da Vinci win Sanremo 2026?Yes won
- Will Sayf win Sanremo 2026?No won
- Will Serena Brancale win Sanremo 2026?No won
- Will Tommaso Paradiso win Sanremo 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.