World Politics · resolved market
Will Salvador Alejandro César Nasralla Salum win the 2025 Honduran presidential election by less than 1%?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7cd8886dae23d57218e91840d4d0a5993bb8768c5dc3eb6060d7756b8e5855eb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $80,721
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $54,577
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $80,721 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 67 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x90b6…a1b0backed Yes | 3c | 3,822$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.32 | 44 | 25%11 W · 33 L | +3.1wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa65c…32fbbacked Yes | 2c | 3,523$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.43 | 46 | 34.8%16 W · 30 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x865d…16bdbacked Yes | 6c | 3,400$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212.52 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5117…49b3backed Yes | 6c | 2,890$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.46 | 28 | 28.6%8 W · 20 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x949a…721cbacked Yes | 1c | 2,409$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.62 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 24cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1071…42cebacked Yes | 2c | 2,191$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.06 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.15per pick | 23cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb659…c375backed Yes | 12c | 2,055$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3d32…32e1backed Yes | 2c | 1,351$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.16 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdaef…54e9backed Yes | 7c | 1,242$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.27 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x24c8…23e1backed Yes | 6c | 1,234$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.08 | 232 | 25%58 W · 174 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b9d…adc0backed Yes | 25c | 1,012$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$254.84 | 134 | 44.8%60 W · 74 L | +17.1wins | +0.13per pick | 32cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xdbd0…edc4backed Yes | 5c | 980.6$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 110 | 17.3%19 W · 91 L | +3.9wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7f67…5bbabacked Yes | 15c | 979.02$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.49 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +189.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3de…e227backed Yes | 12c | 886.42$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.17 | 239 | 21.3%51 W · 188 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | +26.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc9…ace5backed Yes | 2c | 878.34$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.34 | 476 | 6.5%31 W · 445 L | -8.9wins | -0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ed…47d8backed Yes | 12c | 790.91$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.39 | 135 | 25.2%34 W · 101 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | +38.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9cf6…559dbacked Yes | 18c | 736.79$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.71 | 315 | 34%107 W · 208 L | +7.7wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef28…2d50backed Yes | 6c | 600.41$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.92 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked Yes | 3c | 593.6$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.96 | 79 | 19%15 W · 64 L | -3.7wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed Yes | 21c | 585.6$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.3 | 449 | 21.2%95 W · 354 L | -21.7wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Yes | 3c | 527.83$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.46 | 142 | 5.6%8 W · 134 L | -27.2wins | -0.19per pick | 25cpaid | -58.7%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x4706…286ebacked Yes | 2c | 521.21$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.55 | 22 | 9.1%2 W · 20 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 5cpaid | +79.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x47f3…d070backed Yes | 2c | 515.82$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xab39…c22fbacked Yes | 6c | 515.03$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.99 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 15cpaid | +65.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0330…eb8fbacked Yes | 16c | 499.98$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 57 | 29.8%17 W · 40 L | -2.4wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf25b…82d0backed Yes | 5c | 473.71$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.55 | 55 | 5.5%3 W · 52 L | -3.5wins | -0.06per pick | 12cpaid | -92.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7f00…96ecbacked Yes | 4c | 418.21$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.57 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x442d…523ebacked Yes | 4c | 415.92$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.69 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.19per pick | 6cpaid | +335.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 76c | 344.67$261 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.54 | 322 | 55%177 W · 145 L | +14.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x01a4…0064backed Yes | 18c | 329.51$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.5 | 34 | 35.3%12 W · 22 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +52.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 11c | 311.72$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.37 | 990 | 17.2%170 W · 820 L | -148.8wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 34-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x442a…7c94backed Yes | 15c | 299.99$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 61 | 41%25 W · 36 L | +6.1wins | +0.10per pick | 31cpaid | +93.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x64e8…7819backed Yes | 13c | 299.43$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.61 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x98ce…5e1dbacked Yes | 6c | 294.25$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.67 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac8f…feddbacked Yes | 20c | 293.4$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -14%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b44…63fbbacked Yes | 13c | 289.94$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.41 | 371 | 17.8%66 W · 305 L | -18.9wins | -0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x94fb…d6cbbacked Yes | 38c | 283.08$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.46 | 45 | 40%18 W · 27 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -28%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8996…9c76backed Yes | 15c | 277$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.55 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -11%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd666…d9d6backed Yes | 11c | 255.38$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.69 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 21cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc708…ac93backed No | 69c | 250$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 72cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x68cb…6db8backed No | 72c | 245.98$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.4 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 73cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8662…0731backed Yes | 7c | 211.11$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 29 | 20.7%6 W · 23 L | -1.6wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6587…4f63backed Yes | 15c | 205$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.75 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6291…cc47backed Yes | 23c | 202.8$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.94 | 284 | 34.2%97 W · 187 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x960a…7062backed No | 70c | 200$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +45%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b84…5061backed No | 80c | 199.45$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.93 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.11per pick | 74cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3475…eea8backed Yes | 18c | 179.61$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.38 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.17per pick | 43cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x670e…c747backed Yes | 6c | 179.26$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.69 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.14per pick | 26cpaid | +86.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b9d…b43ebacked Yes | 13c | 140$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5c2…cfb5backed Yes | 15c | 133.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 8cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd7ac…8a09backed Yes | 26c | 132$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.16per pick | 41cpaid | -63.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb766…1d83backed Yes | 40c | 126.27$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 41 | 39%16 W · 25 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb761…253abacked Yes | 10c | 115.97$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.37 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +49.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ac8…77cdbacked Yes | 14c | 113$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.82 | 302 | 33.8%102 W · 200 L | +19.2wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5529…86d2backed Yes | 15c | 111.68$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.35 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x427a…e05abacked Yes | 23c | 110$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.3 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +36.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8de2…8483backed Yes | 35c | 100$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.7 | 39 | 51.3%20 W · 19 L | +3.6wins | +0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2291…e3f7backed Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 46cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ae6…7485backed Yes | 31c | 98.35$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.77 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | -3.3wins | -0.13per pick | 40cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe0a2…a349backed Yes | 18c | 78.2$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.08 | 80 | 48.8%39 W · 41 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x552c…be63backed Yes | 19c | 72.89$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.85 | 24 | 12.5%3 W · 21 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 15cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 73c | 61.05$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.36 | 260 | 52.3%136 W · 124 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c7…c0c0backed Yes | 22c | 52.48$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.77 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x214c…6378backed No | 75c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | -2.0wins | -0.08per pick | 65cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ba…2af0backed No | 80c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x53af…671cbacked Yes | 23c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf021…df56backed No | 77c | 16.77$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.87 | 51 | 41.2%21 W · 30 L | +3.6wins | +0.07per pick | 34cpaid | +108.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Salvador Alejandro César Nasralla Salum win the 2025 Honduran presidential election by less than 1%?this page
- Will Nasry Juan Asfura Zablah win the 2025 Honduran presidential election by at least 3%?No won
- Will Nasry Juan Asfura Zablah win the 2025 Honduran presidential election by between 1% and 2%?No won
- Will Nasry Juan Asfura Zablah win the 2025 Honduran presidential election by between 2% and 3%?No won
- Will Nasry Juan Asfura Zablah win the 2025 Honduran presidential election by less than 1%?Yes won
- Will Salvador Alejandro César Nasralla Salum win the 2025 Honduran presidential election by at least 3%?No won
- Will Salvador Alejandro César Nasralla Salum win the 2025 Honduran presidential election by between 1% and 2%?No won
- Will Salvador Alejandro César Nasralla Salum win the 2025 Honduran presidential election by between 2% and 3%?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.