Fed Rates · resolved market
Will the Fed Cut–Cut–Cut in the next three decisions (Oct–Dec–Jan)?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbfcc34365517ac4978e76ecd8287e37fd92e68b22a3db9b31129c5c37669c293
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fed Ratesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $307,069
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $275,888
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $307,069 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 163 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fed Rates is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x878e…a074backed Yes | 8c | 26,553$2,063 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,062.72 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 10cpaid | -54.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a70…8b38backed Yes | 5c | 19,350$933 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$933.25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0132…af84backed Yes | 5c | 13,286$699 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$699.01 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x45a2…3c01backed Yes | 3c | 8,985$278 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$277.92 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 15cpaid | -79.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Yes | 6c | 5,255$291 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$291.28 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 24cpaid | -71%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbab6…50a2backed Yes | 21c | 3,345$706 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$705.71 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -65%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 4c | 3,032$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.32 | 64 | 3.1%2 W · 62 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 3cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x58f4…0221backed Yes | 41c | 2,949$1,200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,200.46 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.15per pick | 42cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe061…93f9backed Yes | 4c | 2,824$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.65 | 38 | 5.3%2 W · 36 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 5cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x80a4…22ccbacked Yes | 21c | 2,776$579 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$579.22 | 89 | 53.9%48 W · 41 L | +8.9wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…4d2dbacked Yes | 4c | 2,761$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.28 | 23 | 0%0 W · 23 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22af…399abacked Yes | 5c | 2,200$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.99 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 12cpaid | -89.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 4c | 2,034$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.68 | 72 | 2.8%2 W · 70 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9178…a2b2backed Yes | 6c | 2,000$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 66 | 16.7%11 W · 55 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 16cpaid | +51.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x14bd…ed9cbacked Yes | 1c | 1,875$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x703e…59c8backed Yes | 1c | 1,875$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x939b…9cd7backed Yes | 3c | 1,820$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.35 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -70.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 66c | 1,642$1,086 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$556.61 | 181 | 35.4%64 W · 117 L | -16.4wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcf95…7865backed Yes | 11c | 1,528$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.69 | 72 | 26.4%19 W · 53 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -44.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 4c | 1,512$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.57 | 59 | 1.7%1 W · 58 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -73.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c1e…bfe7backed No | 63c | 1,396$878 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$518.81 | 48 | 29.2%14 W · 34 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d42…f124backed Yes | 3c | 1,265$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.88 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e52…9434backed Yes | 40c | 1,251$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -3.0wins | -0.27per pick | 36cpaid | -87.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3d…498abacked Yes | 21c | 1,228$252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$252.21 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd493…7f04backed Yes | 3c | 1,200$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.4 | 30 | 3.3%1 W · 29 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ae7…0fd1backed Yes | 21c | 1,164$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc54…680fbacked Yes | 14c | 1,100$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154 | 89 | 24.7%22 W · 67 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5081…a309backed Yes | 2c | 1,095$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.35 | 32 | 3.1%1 W · 31 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -53.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a7b…782fbacked Yes | 25c | 1,067$271 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$271.29 | 62 | 35.5%22 W · 40 L | +4.0wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa472…a07cbacked Yes | 4c | 1,053$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.42 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6e24…70a6backed Yes | 5c | 1,051$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.41per pick | 9cpaid | +257.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9dc2…0727backed Yes | 3c | 1,015$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.55 | 30 | 3.3%1 W · 29 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1ec6…0cfebacked Yes | 22c | 970.12$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214.78 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a25…81d1backed No | 64c | 964.63$622 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$343.03 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 70c | 959.67$673 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$286.18 | 116 | 46.6%54 W · 62 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73c4…f3cdbacked Yes | 25c | 953.73$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfce…80c7backed Yes | 21c | 904.76$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7a…df1bbacked Yes | 3c | 887.41$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.75 | 50 | 16%8 W · 42 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 16cpaid | -72.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbf2…887dbacked Yes | 1c | 842.63$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.93 | 34 | 5.9%2 W · 32 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0218…41aebacked Yes | 15c | 807.28$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.58 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fce…2566backed Yes | 23c | 798.13$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.18 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | +1.8wins | +0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x04dc…2387backed Yes | 17c | 742.97$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.36 | 52 | 30.8%16 W · 36 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -43%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfdfc…288cbacked No | 55c | 739.42$407 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$332.74 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5795…30fabacked Yes | 4c | 732.38$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.23 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -79.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x08c8…1da2backed Yes | 17c | 720.96$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.37 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +1.9wins | +0.11per pick | 53cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1203…0c21backed Yes | 4c | 713.89$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.03 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x46ce…c842backed Yes | 3c | 681.58$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.69 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf416…6ec9backed No | 79c | 635.58$501 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.55 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x78ae…2969backed Yes | 5c | 622.83$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.03 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa5e2…72a9backed Yes | 10c | 620.57$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa109…a628backed Yes | 4c | 611.25$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.45 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb57e…ae83backed Yes | 20c | 596$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.2 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97be…8b1cbacked Yes | 4c | 580.5$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.91 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb166…7ba1backed Yes | 29c | 558.06$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.84 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -2.4wins | -0.39per pick | 56cpaid | -79.2%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xab19…4876backed Yes | 17c | 546$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.82 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -50.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8c4…eaadbacked Yes | 21c | 500$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0284…acbabacked Yes | 17c | 500$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc46…4fb8backed No | 77c | 500$386 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +2.7wins | +0.33per pick | 54cpaid | +204.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7124…70c1backed No | 79c | 499.98$395 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -2.1wins | -0.10per pick | 45cpaid | -48%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0377…8fa0backed Yes | 4c | 499.97$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7994…c512backed Yes | 29c | 480.64$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.39 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8296…e9cbbacked Yes | 19c | 464.66$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.54 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 15cpaid | -74.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x453a…fdb8backed Yes | 4c | 454.6$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.57 | 24 | 0%0 W · 24 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf148…45efbacked Yes | 45c | 447.76$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8637…9657backed No | 56c | 447$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$196.68 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +2.0wins | +0.13per pick | 56cpaid | +39.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdddc…9935backed Yes | 6c | 445.14$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.15 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe316…1766backed Yes | 3c | 441.72$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.42 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 20cpaid | -80.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc3c5…66e8backed Yes | 3c | 437.15$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.57 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa44c…eb34backed Yes | 4c | 430$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.75 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa349…a150backed Yes | 3c | 426.23$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.38 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 11cpaid | -89.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a86…dea8backed Yes | 30c | 409$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.7 | 43 | 20.9%9 W · 34 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -58.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3cd…1afabacked Yes | 3c | 396.91$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.56 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x31ff…98b4backed Yes | 3c | 396.25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.32 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 15cpaid | -89.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd049…aa90backed Yes | 3c | 354.83$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.41 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52e9…45d4backed Yes | 20c | 354.74$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked Yes | 4c | 352.59$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.1 | 70 | 17.1%12 W · 58 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -68.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24ae…3bd8backed Yes | 29c | 348.58$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.5 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -48%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x418d…baf6backed Yes | 6c | 338.13$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x98ce…5e1dbacked Yes | 17c | 334.01$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.08 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.9wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3c5a…0a4fbacked Yes | 11c | 327.27$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 15 | 0%0 W · 15 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcde6…11d7backed Yes | 26c | 312.96$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.63 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ff7…87a4backed Yes | 20c | 300$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.11per pick | 25cpaid | -63.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb5ad…d72abacked Yes | 24c | 298.79$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.71 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x25dc…e33bbacked Yes | 32c | 296.42$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95 | 26 | 23.1%6 W · 20 L | -4.1wins | -0.16per pick | 39cpaid | -61.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe196…0ab5backed Yes | 8c | 293.08$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.31 | 30 | 16.7%5 W · 25 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -61.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 19c | 278.67$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.45 | 318 | 7.2%23 W · 295 L | -11.1wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -75%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc71e…f450backed Yes | 44c | 264.59$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.44 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdce7…f553backed Yes | 23c | 256.32$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.02 | 26 | 11.5%3 W · 23 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -79.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff56…ca81backed Yes | 43c | 246.5$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.11per pick | 61cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d0d…9b6ebacked Yes | 13c | 243$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.94 | 45 | 2.2%1 W · 44 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 7cpaid | -87.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd8…004ebacked Yes | 31c | 241.12$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.2 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8aea…3c2bbacked Yes | 47c | 240.78$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.34 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4dc1…f780backed Yes | 21c | 238.1$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1398…f6b3backed Yes | 21c | 235.39$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 16cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8973…a37cbacked Yes | 20c | 225.26$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.43 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x875d…25cfbacked Yes | 18c | 223.19$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.06 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d50…b166backed Yes | 5c | 220$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.56 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ac0…63c8backed Yes | 47c | 211.29$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d5a…78e9backed No | 67c | 209.53$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.53 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -49.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6eda…75ddbacked Yes | 15c | 208.33$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.25 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the Fed Cut–Cut–Cut in the next three decisions (Oct–Dec–Jan)?this page
- Will the Fed Cut–Cut–Pause in the next three decisions (Oct–Dec–Jan)?Yes won
- Will the Fed Cut–Pause–Cut in the next three decisions (Oct–Dec–Jan)?No won
- Will the Fed Cut–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Oct–Dec–Jan)?No won
- Will the Fed Pause–Cut–Cut in the next three decisions (Oct–Dec–Jan)?No won
- Will the Fed Pause–Cut–Pause in the next three decisions (Oct–Dec–Jan)?No won
- Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Oct–Dec–Jan)?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.