Fed Rates · resolved market
Will the Fed Cut–Cut–Pause in the next three decisions (Oct–Dec–Jan)?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x83db787ed2cb00d225178e66bc6ae4d22e8029f19390d2b78ded5aed978eead6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fed Ratesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $333,494
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $374,923
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $333,494 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 158 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fed Rates is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc1eb…3471backed No | 34c | 13,202$4,489 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,488.68 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x516a…9ff9backed Yes | 66c | 6,958$4,592 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,365.72 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x59b4…528fbacked Yes | 66c | 6,244$4,121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,122.96 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22af…399abacked No | 6c | 5,500$320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$319.84 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 12cpaid | -89.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecd5…03edbacked Yes | 51c | 4,800$2,436 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,364 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +97%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed No | 4c | 3,919$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.67 | 64 | 3.1%2 W · 62 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 3cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x62b2…85d5backed Yes | 50c | 3,496$1,748 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,748.06 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x80a4…22ccbacked Yes | 42c | 3,378$1,406 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,971.68 | 89 | 53.9%48 W · 41 L | +8.9wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked No | 4c | 3,226$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.38 | 72 | 2.8%2 W · 70 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe061…93f9backed No | 4c | 3,081$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.72 | 38 | 5.3%2 W · 36 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 5cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d42…f124backed No | 5c | 2,952$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.04 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5527…4e68backed No | 2c | 2,925$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.11 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 21cpaid | -69.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…4d2dbacked No | 4c | 2,803$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.69 | 23 | 0%0 W · 23 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x03e1…2f63backed No | 50c | 2,660$1,330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,330 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x155a…a281backed Yes | 50c | 2,660$1,330 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,330 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd362…9bc4backed No | 5c | 2,653$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.03 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -67.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed No | 5c | 2,384$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.61 | 59 | 1.7%1 W · 58 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -73.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3bef…f04ebacked No | 3c | 2,090$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.69 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -72.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x793c…e8dabacked No | 5c | 1,677$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.92 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 29cpaid | -70.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdcee…bda5backed No | 23c | 1,567$366 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$366.35 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf68…20d8backed No | 52c | 1,500$779 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$778.61 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a8…00c7backed Yes | 49c | 1,448$709 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$739.04 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 35c | 1,437$506 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$506.11 | 116 | 46.6%54 W · 62 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbf2…887dbacked No | 2c | 1,215$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.92 | 34 | 5.9%2 W · 32 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff72…cdaabacked Yes | 55c | 1,143$626 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$516.58 | 10 | 90%9 W · 1 L | +3.0wins | +0.30per pick | 60cpaid | +59.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8152…bfdabacked Yes | 60c | 1,138$688 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$450.35 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5081…a309backed No | 2c | 1,074$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.13 | 32 | 3.1%1 W · 31 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -53.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 19c | 1,011$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.74 | 40 | 50%20 W · 20 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd493…7f04backed No | 5c | 948.3$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.02 | 30 | 3.3%1 W · 29 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8aea…3c2bbacked Yes | 47c | 910.8$426 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$484.84 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7a…df1bbacked No | 3c | 861.23$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.84 | 50 | 16%8 W · 42 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 16cpaid | -72.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd242…e84dbacked Yes | 70c | 828.59$584 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$244.59 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -18%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9dc2…0727backed No | 5c | 823.13$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.3 | 30 | 3.3%1 W · 29 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x04dc…2387backed Yes | 23c | 743$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$569.43 | 52 | 30.8%16 W · 36 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -43%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed No | 5c | 712.92$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.04 | 66 | 4.5%3 W · 63 L | -3.4wins | -0.05per pick | 10cpaid | -68.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x78ae…2969backed No | 5c | 676.05$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.44 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked No | 3c | 671.07$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.32 | 25 | 4%1 W · 24 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 7cpaid | -70.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed No | 5c | 646.6$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.35 | 96 | 0%0 W · 96 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ed8…93d4backed Yes | 46c | 624.08$285 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$338.8 | 70 | 45.7%32 W · 38 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5567…aeedbacked No | 72c | 604.83$433 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$432.8 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -2.4wins | -0.15per pick | 59cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x221c…d3c1backed Yes | 70c | 548.31$385 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.55 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +1.9wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +66.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9bf6…77d8backed No | 35c | 539.99$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.92 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -1.5wins | -0.09per pick | 32cpaid | -49.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 55c | 534.93$296 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$296.07 | 181 | 35.4%64 W · 117 L | -16.4wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x24ae…3bd8backed Yes | 47c | 509$239 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$269.77 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -48%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1398…f6b3backed Yes | 20c | 502.27$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$402.27 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 16cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9ac…c5d1backed Yes | 75c | 500$374 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.22 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -68.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a7b…782fbacked Yes | 20c | 500$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$400 | 62 | 35.5%22 W · 40 L | +4.0wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x76ea…08a5backed Yes | 78c | 500$390 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.25per pick | 55cpaid | +31.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0284…acbabacked Yes | 48c | 500$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$260 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb57e…ae83backed Yes | 49c | 496$242 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$254.14 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7994…c512backed Yes | 31c | 480.64$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$331.64 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc54…680fbacked Yes | 24c | 469.44$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$357.64 | 89 | 24.7%22 W · 67 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf416…6ec9backed No | 22c | 461.44$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.16 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9178…a2b2backed No | 6c | 427.23$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.63 | 66 | 16.7%11 W · 55 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 16cpaid | +51.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd86…1f67backed Yes | 50c | 418.85$209 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210.16 | 22 | 63.6%14 W · 8 L | +2.6wins | +0.12per pick | 52cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xab19…4876backed Yes | 40c | 406$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$243.36 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -50.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93d7…7423backed No | 29c | 341.38$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -1.3wins | -0.10per pick | 38cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 9c | 305.12$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.9 | 107 | 13.1%14 W · 93 L | -8.2wins | -0.08per pick | 21cpaid | -52.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5795…30fabacked No | 6c | 302.68$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.16 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -79.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x92ea…ff82backed No | 5c | 288.25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.97 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 76c | 270.52$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.08 | 200 | 21.5%43 W · 157 L | -10.7wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9099…8491backed No | 64c | 265$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.71 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -2.0wins | -0.17per pick | 58cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xac31…dc0abacked Yes | 75c | 251.14$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.78 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +115.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa4ba…c5d8backed No | 15c | 238$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.95 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8973…a37cbacked Yes | 73c | 225.26$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.05 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7355…12efbacked Yes | 45c | 223.14$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.14 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +2.4wins | +0.13per pick | 35cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x875d…25cfbacked Yes | 44c | 216.1$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.49 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6eda…75ddbacked Yes | 48c | 208.33$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.33 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8327…64cdbacked No | 55c | 201.03$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.89 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc3cd…816cbacked No | 52c | 200$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104 | 33 | 12.1%4 W · 29 L | -2.4wins | -0.07per pick | 19cpaid | -75.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x507c…4166backed Yes | 68c | 200$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.24 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +2.6wins | +0.18per pick | 42cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc6…aad8backed Yes | 51c | 200$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.28per pick | 52cpaid | +41%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6828…1056backed Yes | 43c | 199.99$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114 | 63 | 55.6%35 W · 28 L | +9.6wins | +0.15per pick | 40cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x6d30…7696backed Yes | 49c | 191.63$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.73 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9228…e41abacked No | 58c | 191.54$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.1 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.18per pick | 68cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x104f…9b3bbacked Yes | 69c | 181.48$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.49 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 40cpaid | -63.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfcf2…a469backed Yes | 44c | 179.65$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.96 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcceb…f030backed No | 48c | 162.94$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.64 | 39 | 53.8%21 W · 18 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x40c5…6878backed Yes | 65c | 154.23$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.23 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +54.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98ce…5e1dbacked Yes | 33c | 152.3$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.65 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.9wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x50b2…c94abacked Yes | 64c | 150$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | +2.3wins | +0.08per pick | 40cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb73…53b0backed Yes | 68c | 146.33$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.33 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +46.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…74d0backed Yes | 64c | 135.2$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.58 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +42%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe404…a79bbacked Yes | 77c | 129.87$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.87 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x06fc…4fb6backed Yes | 21c | 127.27$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.27 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04f6…311abacked Yes | 80c | 125.06$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.06 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0692…15f3backed Yes | 80c | 112$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.4 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xafa5…3873backed Yes | 46c | 111$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.94 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +117.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x56d2…7afcbacked No | 18c | 105.56$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 53c | 103$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.59 | 240 | 46.3%111 W · 129 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x952c…5414backed No | 30c | 103$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.55 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.25per pick | 35cpaid | +101.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x981a…4d8bbacked Yes | 39c | 101$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.64 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0362…449ebacked Yes | 40c | 100.13$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.13 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4667…cab0backed Yes | 40c | 100$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x89d5…591bbacked Yes | 71c | 100$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 56cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa7c8…e4f7backed No | 61c | 100$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.19per pick | 44cpaid | -61.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcc77…c035backed No | 54c | 100$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.13per pick | 43cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x05fc…f78ebacked Yes | 76c | 100$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.26per pick | 54cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x245c…2486backed No | 52c | 100$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.23per pick | 43cpaid | -71.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e01…63bebacked No | 47c | 100$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 38 | 55.3%21 W · 17 L | +3.8wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the Fed Cut–Cut–Pause in the next three decisions (Oct–Dec–Jan)?this page
- Will the Fed Cut–Cut–Cut in the next three decisions (Oct–Dec–Jan)?No won
- Will the Fed Cut–Pause–Cut in the next three decisions (Oct–Dec–Jan)?No won
- Will the Fed Cut–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Oct–Dec–Jan)?No won
- Will the Fed Pause–Cut–Cut in the next three decisions (Oct–Dec–Jan)?No won
- Will the Fed Pause–Cut–Pause in the next three decisions (Oct–Dec–Jan)?No won
- Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Oct–Dec–Jan)?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.