Fed Rates · resolved market
Will the Fed Cut–Pause–Cut in the next three decisions (Oct–Dec–Jan)?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7787e03d77a515e0e774b4f9c77b838f9b4057c4f0c61327f4a593bafc9c2203
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fed Ratesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $44,099
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $40,531
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $44,099 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fed Rates is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 2c | 4,815$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.81 | 318 | 7.2%23 W · 295 L | -11.1wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -75%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfcf2…a469backed Yes | 18c | 3,247$586 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$585.55 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a25…81d1backed Yes | 7c | 3,105$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219.56 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa5e2…72a9backed Yes | 5c | 2,652$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.82 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c1e…bfe7backed Yes | 10c | 1,731$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.14 | 48 | 29.2%14 W · 34 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd40d…5652backed Yes | 6c | 1,619$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ba4…8a89backed Yes | 7c | 1,236$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.3 | 57 | 40.4%23 W · 34 L | +4.5wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -13%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x80a4…22ccbacked No | 79c | 1,050$832 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$217.55 | 89 | 53.9%48 W · 41 L | +8.9wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x24ae…3bd8backed Yes | 10c | 879$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.4 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -48%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c9e…db3dbacked Yes | 8c | 674.91$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.81 | 23 | 4.3%1 W · 22 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 7cpaid | -93.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ed8…93d4backed Yes | 21c | 586.66$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.94 | 70 | 45.7%32 W · 38 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7fd8…fb2bbacked Yes | 7c | 548.77$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7a…df1bbacked Yes | 2c | 500$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 50 | 16%8 W · 42 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 16cpaid | -72.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x62a0…54a1backed Yes | 45c | 380$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.29per pick | 31cpaid | +86.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9bf6…77d8backed Yes | 11c | 350.05$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.91 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -1.5wins | -0.09per pick | 32cpaid | -49.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcb77…2683backed Yes | 7c | 285.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x03b7…cf78backed Yes | 8c | 248.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 15 | 0%0 W · 15 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d0d…9b6ebacked Yes | 31c | 241.99$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.71 | 45 | 2.2%1 W · 44 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 7cpaid | -87.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x26ea…67adbacked Yes | 33c | 241.7$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.86 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.24per pick | 44cpaid | -71%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x875d…25cfbacked No | 79c | 213.36$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.88 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d7d…c01abacked Yes | 11c | 175.83$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa11b…f663backed No | 77c | 155.07$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.39 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +40.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 26c | 124.57$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.8 | 138 | 29.7%41 W · 97 L | -13.4wins | -0.10per pick | 39cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x981a…4d8bbacked Yes | 15c | 101.21$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.18 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x174a…930abacked Yes | 15c | 99.87$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.98 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3136…5b6bbacked Yes | 21c | 95.92$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf95…7865backed Yes | 11c | 95.34$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.12 | 72 | 26.4%19 W · 53 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -44.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x033e…34c6backed Yes | 33c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.65 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf283…049bbacked No | 67c | 29.76$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.76 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.36per pick | 70cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1401…0707backed No | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.18 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa314…5ba7backed No | 61c | 17.7$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.85 | 25 | 68%17 W · 8 L | +1.8wins | +0.07per pick | 61cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the Fed Cut–Pause–Cut in the next three decisions (Oct–Dec–Jan)?this page
- Will the Fed Cut–Cut–Cut in the next three decisions (Oct–Dec–Jan)?No won
- Will the Fed Cut–Cut–Pause in the next three decisions (Oct–Dec–Jan)?Yes won
- Will the Fed Cut–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Oct–Dec–Jan)?No won
- Will the Fed Pause–Cut–Cut in the next three decisions (Oct–Dec–Jan)?No won
- Will the Fed Pause–Cut–Pause in the next three decisions (Oct–Dec–Jan)?No won
- Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Oct–Dec–Jan)?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.