Fed Rates · resolved market
Will the Fed Cut–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Oct–Dec–Jan)?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa0c6e058678a094c789cb57d203d42678c60d642123857f37f71e0155353bb04
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fed Ratesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $69,258
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $51,814
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $69,258 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fed Rates is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1c1e…bfe7backed Yes | 4c | 6,959$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.98 | 48 | 29.2%14 W · 34 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfcf2…a469backed Yes | 13c | 3,248$435 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$434.83 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a25…81d1backed Yes | 2c | 3,011$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.81 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a7b…782fbacked Yes | 13c | 2,722$349 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$348.88 | 62 | 35.5%22 W · 40 L | +4.0wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf503…39e2backed Yes | 6c | 2,650$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.26 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.11per pick | 27cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8210…346bbacked Yes | 3c | 1,884$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 6c | 1,522$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.88 | 318 | 7.2%23 W · 295 L | -11.1wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -75%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…9cbebacked Yes | 4c | 1,409$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.31 | 36 | 5.6%2 W · 34 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 6cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x03b7…cf78backed Yes | 2c | 1,215$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 15 | 0%0 W · 15 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcddc…63edbacked Yes | 2c | 1,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.94 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.27per pick | 6cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x357e…2a0cbacked Yes | 18c | 999.98$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24ae…3bd8backed Yes | 16c | 989$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.7 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -48%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked Yes | 2c | 971.21$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.65 | 70 | 17.1%12 W · 58 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -68.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0049…3a9abacked Yes | 12c | 815.1$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.51 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c21…bd2fbacked Yes | 2c | 630.97$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbc54…680fbacked Yes | 7c | 599.99$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.6 | 89 | 24.7%22 W · 67 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes | 17c | 593.46$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 96 | 0%0 W · 96 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 4c | 517.44$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.27 | 200 | 21.5%43 W · 157 L | -10.7wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7a…df1bbacked Yes | 2c | 500$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 50 | 16%8 W · 42 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 16cpaid | -72.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0218…41aebacked Yes | 7c | 424.76$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.66 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c9e…db3dbacked Yes | 5c | 400$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 23 | 4.3%1 W · 22 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 7cpaid | -93.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03c8…0e01backed Yes | 18c | 250$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.75 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -1.7wins | -0.12per pick | 19cpaid | -81.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdde6…ffc5backed Yes | 20c | 225$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6098…5cbabacked Yes | 15c | 223.12$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.34 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -50.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc9…ace5backed Yes | 8c | 222.91$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.91 | 61 | 1.6%1 W · 60 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 5cpaid | -96.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b6f…8d3cbacked Yes | 13c | 165.01$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -38.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9bf6…77d8backed Yes | 8c | 144$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.33 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -1.5wins | -0.09per pick | 32cpaid | -49.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7d7d…c01abacked Yes | 15c | 134.56$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb210…e3c3backed Yes | 14c | 105.37$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.86 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x981a…4d8bbacked Yes | 14c | 100.94$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.09 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e2c…e2fdbacked Yes | 16c | 91.68$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 17c | 86.91$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.07 | 107 | 13.1%14 W · 93 L | -8.2wins | -0.08per pick | 21cpaid | -52.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4774…dedabacked Yes | 13c | 81.22$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfa…73acbacked Yes | 15c | 78.4$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.93 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.12per pick | 21cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the Fed Cut–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Oct–Dec–Jan)?this page
- Will the Fed Cut–Cut–Cut in the next three decisions (Oct–Dec–Jan)?No won
- Will the Fed Cut–Cut–Pause in the next three decisions (Oct–Dec–Jan)?Yes won
- Will the Fed Cut–Pause–Cut in the next three decisions (Oct–Dec–Jan)?No won
- Will the Fed Pause–Cut–Cut in the next three decisions (Oct–Dec–Jan)?No won
- Will the Fed Pause–Cut–Pause in the next three decisions (Oct–Dec–Jan)?No won
- Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Oct–Dec–Jan)?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.