Lol · resolved market
First Blood in Game 1?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x58e2138b91d641d9087f5e7b6df0373c41bcecfaa4210d88170a10cb77dbf53f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- T1of T1, Team Liquid
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Lolevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,826
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,402
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,826 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 15 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Lol is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Lol | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed Team Liquid | 36c | 895.77$322 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$322.48 | 3,584 | 40.1%1,437 W · 2,147 L | +31.1wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab53…f5b2backed T1 | 64c | 283.89$182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.2 | 44 | 65.9%29 W · 15 L | +6.2wins | +0.14per pick | 52cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0a60…d8e5backed T1 | 64c | 234.38$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.38 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 27cpaid | -74%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x385f…a21fbacked T1 | 64c | 156.84$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.84 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb4…0060backed T1 | 52c | 124.87$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.94 | 217 | 47%102 W · 115 L | -6.2wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc3a5…534cbacked Team Liquid | 48c | 104.17$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 207 | 39.1%81 W · 126 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xafca…92b4backed T1 | 64c | 84.19$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.31 | 51 | 64.7%33 W · 18 L | +4.3wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed T1 | 64c | 78.94$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.55 | 2,508 | 39.8%999 W · 1,509 L | -76.4wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e47…cefdbacked T1 | 64c | 78.13$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.13 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.13per pick | 42cpaid | +63.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x20c4…bcb6backed Team Liquid | 47c | 51.95$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.62 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Team Liquid | 37c | 51.01$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.87 | 1,310 | 49.2%644 W · 666 L | -23.8wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5537…fdaabacked T1 | 63c | 31.96$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.96 | 47 | 70.2%33 W · 14 L | +2.1wins | +0.05per pick | 66cpaid | +4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfaab…82a4backed T1 | 63c | 31.75$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.75 | 134 | 51.5%69 W · 65 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf20b…e27dbacked Team Liquid | 36c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.72 | 348 | 49.1%171 W · 177 L | +11.5wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf202…9ea8backed T1 | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.63 | 128 | 69.5%89 W · 39 L | +6.2wins | +0.05per pick | 65cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Lol and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 19 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- First Blood in Game 1?this page
- First Blood in Game 2?T1 won
- First Blood in Game 3?T1 won
- Game 1: Any Player Penta Kill?No won
- Game 1: Any Player Quadra Kill?No won
- Game Handicap: T1 (-1.5) vs Team Liquid (+1.5)T1 won
- Game Handicap: T1 (-2.5) vs Team Liquid (+2.5)T1 won
- Games Total: O/U 3.5Under won
- Games Total: O/U 4.5Under won
- LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Play-InT1 won
- LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 1 WinnerT1 won
- LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 2 WinnerT1 won
- LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 3 WinnerT1 won
- Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 1?Over won
- Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 2?Over won
- Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 3?Under won
- Total Kills Over/Under 33.5 in Game 1?Under won
- Total Kills Over/Under 33.5 in Game 2?Over won
- Total Kills Over/Under 33.5 in Game 3?Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.