TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Lol · resolved market

LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
T1of T1, Team Liquid
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Lolevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,561,706
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,794,737

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,561,706 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 891 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Lol is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Lol
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xc44f…d49fbacked Team Liquid35c49,714$17,205 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17,205.4857246%263 W · 309 L-9.6wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-5.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa57d…701fbacked T148c35,819$17,276 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18,542.6812446%57 W · 67 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-9.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf201…527ebacked Team Liquid27c32,506$8,687 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,6871,29545.1%584 W · 711 L+49.7wins+0.04per pick41cpaid-10.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xdaef…54e9backed Team Liquid25c25,933$6,361 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,361.0432150.2%161 W · 160 L+19.9wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+7.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed T173c24,469$17,776 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,693.281,37937.7%520 W · 859 L-43.8wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-22.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1d2e…896dbacked Team Liquid20c24,092$4,818 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,818.3133838.2%129 W · 209 L-21.4wins-0.06per pick45cpaid-17.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x1341…0853backed Team Liquid19c23,500$4,465 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,464.991,82745.6%834 W · 993 L+26.1wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+3.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x6100…ed95backed T173c23,039$16,723 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,316.038259.8%49 W · 33 L+7.6wins+0.09per pick51cpaid+9.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x52ec…a6f3backed Team Liquid24c20,528$4,960 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,959.5681143.5%353 W · 458 L+30.0wins+0.04per pick40cpaid-7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xae5e…13bebacked T179c20,007$15,891 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,116.0849541.6%206 W · 289 L+2.6wins+0.01per pick41cpaid-8.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9671…3a70backed Team Liquid1c20,000$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2002844.6%13 W · 271 L+3.8wins+0.01per pick3cpaid-16.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe361…ae44backed Team Liquid19c19,679$3,758 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,758.2489347%420 W · 473 L+44.2wins+0.05per pick42cpaid-7.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x6373…a0b7backed Team Liquid27c17,664$4,710 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,710.159621.9%21 W · 75 L-5.5wins-0.06per pick28cpaid-37.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x0b89…a4cdbacked T150c16,940$8,484 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,455.7570857.1%404 W · 304 L+41.0wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+9.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x2b42…62afbacked Team Liquid57c15,482$8,817 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,816.8234536.5%126 W · 219 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-3.8%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x939f…6d5ebacked Team Liquid22c15,000$3,300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,299.88728.7%25 W · 62 L+2.6wins+0.03per pick26cpaid-21.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb234…1c20backed Team Liquid20c14,473$2,899 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,899.2730845.1%139 W · 169 L-3.7wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-5.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x04b1…d224backed T176c13,689$10,420 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,269.3240651.7%210 W · 196 L+9.2wins+0.02per pick49cpaid-9.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe018…1b18backed T158c13,222$7,636 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,586.244057.5%23 W · 17 L+3.3wins+0.08per pick49cpaid-5.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x67ac…edf1backed T148c12,971$6,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,770.2835448.6%172 W · 182 L+14.1wins+0.04per pick45cpaid-9.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x695d…0d7cbacked Team Liquid47c12,916$6,063 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,063.4767553.5%361 W · 314 L+25.4wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+7.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5286…0d47backed Team Liquid17c12,862$2,143 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,143.0127637.3%103 W · 173 L+2.2wins+0.01per pick37cpaid+4.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x57b4…b46bbacked Team Liquid19c12,500$2,415 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,414.9629443.2%127 W · 167 L-13.5wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-6.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x32eb…ded0backed Team Liquid38c12,267$4,701 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,700.9531644.3%140 W · 176 L+3.0wins+0.01per pick43cpaid-15.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x01e6…e7e0backed Team Liquid41c12,072$4,920 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,919.6648149.7%239 W · 242 L+8.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+0.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa79a…d72abacked T179c10,812$8,515 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,296.5449451.8%256 W · 238 L-11.5wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-6.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3f97…4059backed Team Liquid20c10,491$2,098 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,098.31,15649.1%568 W · 588 L-17.3wins-0.01per pick51cpaid+0.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x9348…6664backed T162c10,322$6,405 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,917.0528859%170 W · 118 L-2.0wins-0.01per pick60cpaid-5.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3da8…80c3backed T180c10,000$8,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,00016258%94 W · 68 L-3.5wins-0.02per pick60cpaid-3.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8718…5040backed Team Liquid48c10,000$4,800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,799.9821056.7%119 W · 91 L-14.2wins-0.07per pick63cpaid-10.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x55d9…832cbacked Team Liquid20c10,000$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,999.9930945.3%140 W · 169 L+1.5wins0.00per pick45cpaid+2.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x19d0…2101backed T160c9,140$5,455 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,685.688350.6%42 W · 41 L-3.3wins-0.04per pick55cpaid-14.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe291…748ebacked Team Liquid34c8,985$3,098 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,097.510456.7%59 W · 45 L+5.2wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+6.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x85d5…45eebacked T170c8,860$6,202 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,658.0959558.3%347 W · 248 L-29.3wins-0.05per pick63cpaid-10.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x56c9…0d9ebacked Team Liquid67c8,793$5,886 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,885.7512664.3%81 W · 45 L-9.8wins-0.08per pick72cpaid-11.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xe405…c67ebacked T165c7,806$5,074 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,732.0667760.4%409 W · 268 L+42.6wins+0.06per pick54cpaid+10.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x3a09…f9f7backed Team Liquid18c7,682$1,416 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,416.411,59253.7%855 W · 737 L+57.2wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+8.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd2f3…37f9backed T176c7,650$5,793 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,857.2615356.9%87 W · 66 L+6.9wins+0.05per pick52cpaid-1.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb635…bef0backed Team Liquid20c7,544$1,509 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,508.885836.2%311 W · 547 L-14.1wins-0.02per pick38cpaid-5.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdd58…18f9backed Team Liquid30c7,500$2,250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,249.9921144.5%94 W · 117 L+0.5wins0.00per pick44cpaid+1.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x55b4…5e95backed Team Liquid67c7,440$5,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,0001060%6 W · 4 L+0.5wins+0.05per pick55cpaid-2.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdd88…dadbbacked T179c7,000$5,550 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,4501,09252.4%572 W · 520 L+6.2wins+0.01per pick52cpaid-1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8c0b…7aa5backed Team Liquid69c6,956$4,800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,799.671,63040.1%654 W · 976 L+48.3wins+0.03per pick37cpaid-1.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3ba9…1a61backed Team Liquid9c6,783$598 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$597.725437%20 W · 34 L-2.8wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-31.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3186…e9cabacked Team Liquid63c6,011$3,763 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,763.411,53662.6%961 W · 575 L+157.8wins+0.10per pick52cpaid+8.1%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xf3de…6fe8backed T180c5,163$4,130 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,032.625867.2%39 W · 19 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick68cpaid-0.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6842…20d0backed Team Liquid29c5,112$1,482 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,482.451,01147.1%476 W · 535 L+21.9wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+3.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6768…4ef1backed Team Liquid60c5,040$3,010 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,009.5210449%51 W · 53 L-0.5wins0.00per pick49cpaid+5.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfd96…e623backed T180c5,005$3,984 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,021.0539851.8%206 W · 192 L+0.3wins0.00per pick52cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x475b…02b4backed T180c5,000$4,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,0002653.8%14 W · 12 L+1.8wins+0.07per pick47cpaid-7.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd6c1…51aabacked Team Liquid1c5,000$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$505940.7%24 W · 35 L+1.6wins+0.03per pick38cpaid-8.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd3b0…329ebacked Team Liquid21c5,000$1,050 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0502,00458.2%1,166 W · 838 L+86.9wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+9.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe4eb…1a6ebacked T131c5,000$1,550 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,4508933.7%30 W · 59 L-4.7wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-13.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe52c…01f4backed Team Liquid7c5,000$349 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$348.953250%16 W · 16 L+4.0wins+0.12per pick38cpaid+31.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xafd4…7e61backed Team Liquid19c5,000$950 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$949.991,20054.1%649 W · 551 L+28.9wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+3.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xff8a…0c39backed Team Liquid4c5,000$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2003312.1%4 W · 29 L-4.1wins-0.13per pick25cpaid-72%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xa980…30a1backed Team Liquid28c4,984$1,383 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,383.1144120%88 W · 353 L-4.2wins-0.01per pick21cpaid-25.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x67ed…085abacked T179c4,942$3,887 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,055.5110541.9%44 W · 61 L-3.2wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-13.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4a1c…9867backed T164c4,718$3,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,718.43630.6%11 W · 25 L-1.5wins-0.04per pick35cpaid-31.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed T172c4,608$3,309 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,299.072,49739.9%996 W · 1,501 L-75.6wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-19.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3a86…cc01backed Team Liquid36c4,511$1,621 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,621.0217439.7%69 W · 105 L-4.9wins-0.03per pick42cpaid+0.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf62e…eda7backed T150c4,208$2,125 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,082.91172.7%8 W · 3 L+2.0wins+0.19per pick54cpaid+15.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x1025…fbfabacked Team Liquid4c4,129$170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$170.3451454.5%280 W · 234 L+10.4wins+0.02per pick52cpaid-0.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb758…4699backed Team Liquid10c4,062$422 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$421.7716547.9%79 W · 86 L+5.0wins+0.03per pick45cpaid-1.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0224…292abacked T133c4,000$1,320 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,68025244.4%112 W · 140 L+8.6wins+0.03per pick41cpaid-2.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x000e…f7e9backed Team Liquid20c4,000$800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80089943.4%390 W · 509 L+22.3wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+6.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xdde3…e14bbacked Team Liquid63c3,996$2,506 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,506.410547.6%50 W · 55 L+5.1wins+0.05per pick43cpaid-9.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x765f…1508backed T138c3,942$1,495 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,446.6949461.3%303 W · 191 L+7.1wins+0.01per pick60cpaid+5.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x5809…9868backed Team Liquid32c3,842$1,232 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,232.197427.8%271 W · 703 L-23.1wins-0.02per pick30cpaid-28.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6b23…04a3backed Team Liquid17c3,815$657 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$657.241,53654.8%842 W · 694 L+75.1wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+0.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x3f67…a203backed T143c3,799$1,636 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,162.526342.9%27 W · 36 L-1.7wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-16.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x167e…28d9backed Team Liquid42c3,561$1,490 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,490.441838.9%7 W · 11 L-1.2wins-0.06per pick45cpaid-22.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa469…0782backed Team Liquid27c3,500$938 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$938.081,32253.2%703 W · 619 L+36.2wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+4.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3818…9797backed Team Liquid6c3,439$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20057957.9%335 W · 244 L+25.2wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+8.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x01b8…82c1backed T172c3,363$2,437 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9266241.9%26 W · 36 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-18.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x842c…6674backed Team Liquid45c3,349$1,498 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,497.5918162.4%113 W · 68 L+21.1wins+0.12per pick51cpaid+16.5%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x951f…e430backed T160c3,313$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,312.7121946.6%102 W · 117 L+1.1wins0.00per pick46cpaid-1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7b75…3fd1backed Team Liquid43c3,272$1,397 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,397.3594134.5%325 W · 616 L+33.6wins+0.04per pick31cpaid-1.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb4d2…ce99backed T130c3,270$997 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,272.592,18733.3%729 W · 1,458 L-71.9wins-0.03per pick37cpaid-21.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb589…91e3backed Team Liquid33c3,251$1,089 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,088.7151348%246 W · 267 L+25.2wins+0.05per pick43cpaid+12.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xeca2…44fcbacked Team Liquid16c3,167$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5002010%2 W · 18 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick13cpaid-58.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x73da…b7acbacked Team Liquid38c3,135$1,196 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,195.5532457.7%187 W · 137 L+3.7wins+0.01per pick57cpaid-0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x092b…614ebacked Team Liquid10c3,092$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30015644.2%69 W · 87 L-3.6wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-3.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6b97…8d30backed Team Liquid16c3,070$505 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$504.659554.1%322 W · 273 L+14.5wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+6.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x84ad…bfb7backed Team Liquid42c3,006$1,268 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,267.861,93048.2%930 W · 1,000 L+24.7wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-9.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xede1…7dd1backed Team Liquid8c3,000$255 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25542924.2%104 W · 325 L-5.7wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-8.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6260…fccbbacked Team Liquid3c3,000$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$806297%44 W · 585 L-2.2wins0.00per pick7cpaid-33.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4a57…7b0abacked T155c2,966$1,636 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,330.483641.7%15 W · 21 L-1.7wins-0.05per pick46cpaid-11.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc4f7…a5e1backed Team Liquid20c2,914$583 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$582.859037.8%34 W · 56 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick37cpaid+12.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0d87…e214backed Team Liquid24c2,889$700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70026661.7%164 W · 102 L+22.0wins+0.08per pick53cpaid+19.6%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x0c15…9a45backed Team Liquid8c2,783$213 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$212.7812341.5%51 W · 72 L-4.1wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-14.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xeaf8…9f45backed Team Liquid54c2,768$1,505 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,504.693946.2%18 W · 21 L+2.6wins+0.07per pick39cpaid+3.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x09c6…291ebacked T173c2,743$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$742.9918459.8%110 W · 74 L+1.6wins+0.01per pick59cpaid+0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc909…1ab1backed T179c2,700$2,129 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5716456.3%36 W · 28 L-2.0wins-0.03per pick59cpaid-10.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xce20…0b7bbacked T138c2,653$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,652.6330554.8%167 W · 138 L+8.2wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+2.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xee7c…70f2backed T131c2,564$800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,764.1748533.6%163 W · 322 L+23.8wins+0.05per pick29cpaid+4.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xc70b…d2f2backed T139c2,542$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,541.571931.6%6 W · 13 L-3.2wins-0.17per pick49cpaid-33%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x46a8…cde8backed Team Liquid20c2,483$497 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$496.66755.2%37 W · 30 L+4.1wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+7.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x58ce…e206backed T159c2,396$1,410 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$986.3122452.2%117 W · 107 L+14.6wins+0.07per pick46cpaid+10.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xddc4…0270backed T164c2,374$1,526 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$847.8926639.5%105 W · 161 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-8.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Lol and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 19 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.