Lol · resolved market
Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 1?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x67be20dfd98a07682c9e7ca444af9c424b83f322b05c0bc026c4dcccaa98a49e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Lolevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,561
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,456
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,561 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Lol is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Lol | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6e32…ab65backed Under | 48c | 1,355$651 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$650.92 | 2,156 | 53.2%1,148 W · 1,008 L | +57.4wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed Under | 39c | 1,202$466 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$466.26 | 3,584 | 40.1%1,437 W · 2,147 L | +31.1wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6af…f9cdbacked Over | 60c | 500.72$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200.72 | 57 | 35.1%20 W · 37 L | -3.9wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7de3…d59bbacked Over | 52c | 475.05$247 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$228.03 | 421 | 49.2%207 W · 214 L | +8.1wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc754…4b1dbacked Over | 62c | 394.49$245 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.91 | 245 | 35.9%88 W · 157 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa245…2152backed Over | 52c | 318.88$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.06 | 69 | 39.1%27 W · 42 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93f4…ea90backed Over | 52c | 309.99$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.79 | 1,110 | 49%544 W · 566 L | +42.0wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcc36…d35dbacked Over | 51c | 277.5$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.98 | 71 | 42.3%30 W · 41 L | -3.3wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb4…0060backed Under | 48c | 232.63$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.66 | 217 | 47%102 W · 115 L | -6.2wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb8b…646dbacked Under | 48c | 200$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Over | 55c | 187.83$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.79 | 2,508 | 39.8%999 W · 1,509 L | -76.4wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6aae…91c6backed Over | 61c | 163.51$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.51 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x385f…a21fbacked Over | 62c | 162.53$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.53 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a08…47afbacked Over | 62c | 161.29$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.29 | 193 | 46.6%90 W · 103 L | +6.2wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xed4e…916fbacked Over | 53c | 147.17$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.17 | 166 | 54.2%90 W · 76 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca7c…e994backed Under | 39c | 122.86$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.92 | 1,385 | 45.1%625 W · 760 L | -12.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1de9…9499backed Over | 55c | 90.91$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.91 | 230 | 57.8%133 W · 97 L | +8.4wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d02…bfecbacked Over | 52c | 89.45$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.94 | 87 | 50.6%44 W · 43 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9c9…6686backed Over | 52c | 84.29$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.46 | 111 | 46.8%52 W · 59 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91bc…28d6backed Under | 48c | 83.33$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 209 | 57.4%120 W · 89 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc2c8…f437backed Over | 68c | 73.51$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.51 | 52 | 57.7%30 W · 22 L | +5.3wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +28%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc3a5…534cbacked Under | 41c | 73.39$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 207 | 39.1%81 W · 126 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e34…4480backed Over | 51c | 72.59$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.92 | 413 | 43.8%181 W · 232 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d10…940abacked Over | 51c | 54.29$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.6 | 343 | 57.1%196 W · 147 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Under | 39c | 53.46$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.07 | 417 | 49.2%205 W · 212 L | +6.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98c4…b52dbacked Over | 61c | 50$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | -3.5wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1a7e…e0b3backed Under | 45c | 44.44$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 154 | 50.6%78 W · 76 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ca8…b713backed Under | 47c | 42.83$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 134 | 44.8%60 W · 74 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +13%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x847e…3c43backed Under | 48c | 39.18$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.8 | 246 | 56.1%138 W · 108 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12e6…ea33backed Under | 41c | 33.33$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.67 | 42 | 57.1%24 W · 18 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa73a…27d9backed Over | 54c | 33.15$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.25 | 396 | 52%206 W · 190 L | +6.0wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfaab…82a4backed Over | 61c | 32.79$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.79 | 134 | 51.5%69 W · 65 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e0b…9c4ebacked Over | 60c | 32.77$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.05 | 65 | 75.4%49 W · 16 L | +6.3wins | +0.10per pick | 66cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x66b2…0fdfbacked Over | 62c | 32.26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.26 | 318 | 49.7%158 W · 160 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5423…8b45backed Under | 47c | 29.28$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.63 | 113 | 52.2%59 W · 54 L | +7.2wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ad…b23ebacked Over | 62c | 25.9$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.96 | 612 | 56.2%344 W · 268 L | -10.2wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8812…c41abacked Over | 52c | 24.44$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.73 | 255 | 51.4%131 W · 124 L | +9.7wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Over | 53c | 23.95$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.26 | 1,239 | 37.3%462 W · 777 L | -39.2wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -27%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Lol and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 19 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 1?this page
- First Blood in Game 1?T1 won
- First Blood in Game 2?T1 won
- First Blood in Game 3?T1 won
- Game 1: Any Player Penta Kill?No won
- Game 1: Any Player Quadra Kill?No won
- Game Handicap: T1 (-1.5) vs Team Liquid (+1.5)T1 won
- Game Handicap: T1 (-2.5) vs Team Liquid (+2.5)T1 won
- Games Total: O/U 3.5Under won
- Games Total: O/U 4.5Under won
- LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Play-InT1 won
- LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 1 WinnerT1 won
- LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 2 WinnerT1 won
- LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 3 WinnerT1 won
- Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 2?Over won
- Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 3?Under won
- Total Kills Over/Under 33.5 in Game 1?Under won
- Total Kills Over/Under 33.5 in Game 2?Over won
- Total Kills Over/Under 33.5 in Game 3?Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.