TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

AI · resolved market

Will Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of June 2026?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$84,845
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$66,133

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $84,845 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 140 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in AI
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x0482…6b0abacked Yes16c7,312$1,154 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,153.7521035.7%75 W · 135 L+13.4wins+0.06per pick29cpaid-8.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x09e6…24a1backed Yes29c3,981$1,167 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,166.8610933.9%37 W · 72 L+5.0wins+0.05per pick29cpaid-12.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0380…073dbacked No80c3,812$3,036 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$775.687032.9%23 W · 47 L-1.6wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-41.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed No72c3,328$2,386 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$942.419432%62 W · 132 L0.0wins0.00per pick32cpaid-40.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x564f…7026backed Yes14c3,116$446 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$446.3636945.3%167 W · 202 L+29.3wins+0.08per pick37cpaid+22.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x9aeb…2729backed Yes30c2,634$783 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$783.0511855.9%66 W · 52 L+11.0wins+0.09per pick47cpaid+5.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x8de5…84d7backed Yes7c2,600$185 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$185.4825%2 W · 6 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick23cpaid+105.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xac4a…bf1ebacked No58c2,435$1,403 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,032.419818.7%37 W · 161 L-8.1wins-0.04per pick23cpaid-41.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x511f…cbe1backed No72c2,207$1,596 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$610.767943%34 W · 45 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-24.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x07d4…8991backed Yes2c2,100$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$526291.3%8 W · 621 L-7.1wins-0.01per pick2cpaid-88.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x28b2…eb4fbacked Yes22c1,748$378 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$378.3414339.2%56 W · 87 L+5.5wins+0.04per pick35cpaid-28.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7365…64dabacked Yes21c1,570$337 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33727536.4%100 W · 175 L+7.7wins+0.03per pick34cpaid-26.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3594…dc58backed Yes30c1,552$471 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$470.586338.1%24 W · 39 L+4.3wins+0.07per pick31cpaid+14%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x4906…7e10backed Yes21c1,390$297 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$297.212630.8%8 W · 18 L+1.3wins+0.05per pick26cpaid+55%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf86f…256fbacked Yes40c1,250$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50020%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5999…ae94backed No78c1,201$932 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$269.467951.9%41 W · 38 L+3.4wins+0.04per pick48cpaid-10.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd0d9…9074backed Yes52c1,158$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6002623.1%6 W · 20 L-1.3wins-0.05per pick28cpaid+26.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7d1b…e75cbacked Yes11c1,158$124 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$124.343638.9%14 W · 22 L+2.1wins+0.06per pick33cpaid-16%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xad52…11acbacked Yes15c1,111$167 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$166.657132.4%23 W · 48 L+4.3wins+0.06per pick26cpaid+49.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7609…6c4ebacked Yes23c1,106$256 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$256.37955.6%5 W · 4 L+1.1wins+0.13per pick43cpaid+20.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc326…1db1backed Yes24c1,041$254 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$253.5225837.6%97 W · 161 L+5.7wins+0.02per pick35cpaid-29.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4266…5305backed Yes29c1,026$298 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$297.65616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.07per pick23cpaid-74%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes6c857$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.451,3636.8%93 W · 1,270 L-20.2wins-0.01per pick8cpaid-59.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x5a66…9051backed Yes18c797.21$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14020%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb1fe…423abacked Yes26c771.22$203 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$203.410723.4%25 W · 82 L+0.3wins0.00per pick23cpaid-11.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa284…fbbabacked Yes4c687.19$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3050%0 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x048a…9be4backed Yes22c650$142 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$141.651154.5%6 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2f2b…0f9abacked No80c646$517 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$129.2475%3 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.24per pick51cpaid+29%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb89f…1c44backed Yes14c638.73$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.1114337.8%54 W · 89 L+7.0wins+0.05per pick33cpaid-16.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe38e…50c8backed Yes8c632.88$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.631258.3%7 W · 5 L+2.8wins+0.23per pick35cpaid+45.9%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x7df0…0dfebacked No70c600$418 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$182.395848.3%28 W · 30 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-11.2%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xd883…4fd7backed No68c599.97$407 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$192.991040%4 W · 6 L-2.4wins-0.24per pick64cpaid-43.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xc602…7fc1backed Yes8c596.02$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.2332228.9%93 W · 229 L-16.0wins-0.05per pick34cpaid-38.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No77c556$429 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$126.818942.7%38 W · 51 L-3.1wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-28.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x99bc…4f35backed Yes19c503.5$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.6920731.9%66 W · 141 L+4.4wins+0.02per pick30cpaid-6.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb2ef…90e2backed Yes40c500.8$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20080%0 W · 8 L-1.5wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x11f8…1c4ebacked No54c497$266 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$230.515655.4%31 W · 25 L+7.2wins+0.13per pick42cpaid+7.2%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x1c40…445cbacked Yes41c487.87$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2003026.7%8 W · 22 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick24cpaid+0.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x9f20…12c3backed No62c485$299 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$186.57448.6%36 W · 38 L+2.0wins+0.03per pick46cpaid-14.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbf13…00bcbacked Yes23c456.8$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103.51136.4%4 W · 7 L+2.0wins+0.18per pick18cpaid+61.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x8594…7eedbacked Yes46c434.78$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2004271.4%30 W · 12 L+3.5wins+0.08per pick63cpaid+13.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xe562…4fa9backed Yes44c434.35$190 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$189.978746%40 W · 47 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-8.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0739…aba8backed Yes16c431.42$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.198047.5%38 W · 42 L+3.3wins+0.04per pick43cpaid+1.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc518…2594backed No77c431.04$332 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$98.936439.1%25 W · 39 L-1.4wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-28.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8673…4025backed Yes14c416.95$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.037135.2%25 W · 46 L+2.7wins+0.04per pick31cpaid+1.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfa98…af7fbacked Yes18c400$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$731258.3%7 W · 5 L+2.0wins+0.16per pick42cpaid+50.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x06b6…eba6backed Yes30c400$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1201457.1%8 W · 6 L+0.5wins+0.04per pick54cpaid-12%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa794…42adbacked Yes32c367.24$118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$117.62133.3%7 W · 14 L-0.9wins-0.04per pick38cpaid-8.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xec82…6eaabacked Yes8c342.16$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.413042%6 W · 298 L-9.4wins-0.03per pick5cpaid-70.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa90a…63e0backed Yes46c340$156 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$156.4333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.11per pick22cpaid+75.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x764b…6badbacked No72c336.45$243 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.977041.4%29 W · 41 L-3.9wins-0.06per pick47cpaid-36.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xdae0…df45backed Yes30c323.32$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.7310%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x60a8…7d37backed Yes15c300.13$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.722937.9%11 W · 18 L-2.5wins-0.08per pick46cpaid-22.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x0b65…013ebacked Yes24c300$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$721942.1%8 W · 11 L+1.0wins+0.05per pick37cpaid-13.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xdf0e…c02bbacked Yes4c297.6$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.688123.5%19 W · 62 L-9.6wins-0.12per pick35cpaid-55.1%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xe308…309cbacked Yes28c270$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.94427.3%12 W · 32 L0.0wins0.00per pick27cpaid-39%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2d81…fe57backed Yes30c265.83$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.54158.5%24 W · 17 L+4.5wins+0.11per pick48cpaid+12.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x8e32…79d7backed Yes44c262.25$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$116.3560%3 W · 2 L+1.3wins+0.26per pick34cpaid+409.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe0fc…b09fbacked Yes15c240$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3610%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbd14…76b4backed Yes25c227$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.8216418.9%31 W · 133 L-21.7wins-0.13per pick32cpaid-51.3%equal weight37-0.11 edge/pick
0xcfff…673dbacked No77c220$169 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.437538.7%29 W · 46 L-4.9wins-0.07per pick45cpaid-38.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x15f6…e3f8backed Yes46c204.17$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.061330.8%4 W · 9 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick30cpaid-18.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa815…9cbebacked Yes10c203.9$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.782674.9%13 W · 254 L-3.2wins-0.01per pick6cpaid-36.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7e80…631bbacked No58c200.09$115 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$84.7325632.8%84 W · 172 L-24.1wins-0.09per pick42cpaid-27.9%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x927f…e7e7backed Yes42c200$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$843735.1%13 W · 24 L+0.9wins+0.03per pick33cpaid+22%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfe41…9f23backed Yes27c200$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$544827.1%13 W · 35 L-3.8wins-0.08per pick35cpaid-14.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes41c198.44$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.3617824.2%43 W · 135 L-12.4wins-0.07per pick31cpaid-56%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x8674…0d1ebacked Yes41c195$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.955538.2%21 W · 34 L+2.0wins+0.04per pick34cpaid-12.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xaa81…aaf7backed Yes21c188.66$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.9622019.5%43 W · 177 L-11.7wins-0.05per pick25cpaid-46.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x03e1…e180backed Yes10c186.84$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.944042.5%17 W · 23 L+1.8wins+0.05per pick38cpaid+11%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x76f7…2bf6backed Yes55c182.42$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100110%0 W · 11 L-2.7wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0xfd55…f905backed No69c180$123 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.78741.4%36 W · 51 L-3.9wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-28.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x605e…8b39backed No69c180$124 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.5633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.07per pick40cpaid-47.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5e10…1186backed Yes19c177.52$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.71633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-23.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x19db…7636backed Yes29c171.23$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$502356.5%13 W · 10 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-8.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Yes18c162.53$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.6814421.5%31 W · 113 L+2.2wins+0.02per pick20cpaid-38.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcd91…32b8backed No62c161.08$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.584736.2%17 W · 30 L-3.7wins-0.08per pick44cpaid-37%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xf58c…2747backed Yes47c159.91$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7530%0 W · 3 L-1.4wins-0.46per pick46cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x7761…f504backed Yes12c156.52$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.831258.3%7 W · 5 L+0.9wins+0.08per pick50cpaid+4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2d6c…e3f5backed No57c150$85 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$655162.7%32 W · 19 L+6.5wins+0.13per pick50cpaid+23.1%equal weight59+0.09 edge/pick
0x6dec…cefabacked Yes33c148.95$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.283560%21 W · 14 L+4.0wins+0.11per pick49cpaid+7.5%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xb263…6484backed Yes22c147.03$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.3530%0 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc71b…e265backed Yes41c143.76$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.4128826.7%77 W · 211 L-2.1wins-0.01per pick27cpaid-16.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x27ab…e521backed No72c140.97$101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.852343.5%10 W · 13 L-1.8wins-0.08per pick51cpaid-35.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf57d…bf12backed Yes33c136.68$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$452133.3%7 W · 14 L-1.3wins-0.06per pick40cpaid-19.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8a98…1b92backed Yes42c132.8$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.782114.3%3 W · 18 L-1.9wins-0.09per pick23cpaid-74.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x21d5…6f93backed Yes33c126.85$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.816016.7%10 W · 50 L-4.6wins-0.08per pick24cpaid-67%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x1b1e…7854backed Yes9c122$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.98955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick53cpaid-6.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xae28…8883backed Yes43c120.81$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.95666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.1wins+0.19per pick48cpaid+25.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x85d5…bbf0backed Yes22c119.96$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.43397.7%3 W · 36 L-2.6wins-0.07per pick14cpaid-89.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x9edf…f572backed Yes43c116.28$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.09per pick41cpaid+26.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6f67…102cbacked Yes29c113.79$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3329430.6%90 W · 204 L-7.1wins-0.02per pick33cpaid-6.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes46c107.36$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.5140712.3%50 W · 357 L-35.7wins-0.09per pick21cpaid-48.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x0711…f03cbacked Yes44c106$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.8919337.3%72 W · 121 L+9.0wins+0.05per pick33cpaid-10.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xb5ec…9782backed Yes48c105.14$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50633.3%2 W · 4 L-1.3wins-0.21per pick54cpaid-49.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x8575…87febacked No58c102.89$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.083647.2%17 W · 19 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-23.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x898c…b48fbacked Yes30c101.5$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30425%1 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.24per pick49cpaid-64.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9cb3…1367backed No74c101.23$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.819444.7%42 W · 52 L+1.9wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-20.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8533…7c76backed Yes10c100$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102425%6 W · 18 L+2.5wins+0.10per pick15cpaid+74.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x8b02…b95fbacked Yes44c100$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$441968.4%13 W · 6 L+3.4wins+0.18per pick51cpaid+54.8%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.