TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Music · resolved market

Will Taylor Swift release a new original song by October 2?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Musicevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$193,250
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$189,631

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $193,250 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 99 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Music is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Music
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xe30e…8edfbacked No1c11,251$135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2853…3482backed Yes25c7,739$1,927 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,812.112744.4%12 W · 15 L+4.0wins+0.15per pick29cpaid+69%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x340d…0f96backed No6c7,418$450 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45030%0 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2255…b765backed No3c5,878$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$199.9510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5632…748dbacked No2c5,570$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$125.1510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe8a6…644bbacked No1c5,351$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.872924.1%7 W · 22 L+1.3wins+0.05per pick20cpaid-23.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4b8f…4a0fbacked No4c4,521$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x11e2…6ea7backed No1c4,338$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.2910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x308b…4d3dbacked No6c3,697$218 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21810%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdf89…700dbacked No1c3,545$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xecb1…5da3backed No55c3,529$1,950 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,949.576943.5%30 W · 39 L+5.8wins+0.08per pick35cpaid+39.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x56db…171cbacked No1c3,022$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37250%1 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.34per pick16cpaid+61.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed No2c2,874$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.374629.7%45 W · 417 L-4.7wins-0.01per pick11cpaid-42.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbd26…d693backed No1c2,629$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe1f1…3a05backed No2c2,468$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.211421.4%3 W · 11 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick19cpaid-33.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x281f…4eb7backed No5c2,235$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$107.0280%0 W · 8 L-0.6wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xefac…c9a1backed Yes9c2,113$190 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,923.1216250.6%82 W · 80 L+11.6wins+0.07per pick43cpaid+8.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xc20e…48fabacked No1c2,058$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x95d1…817ebacked No5c1,868$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0edd…b01cbacked No1c1,741$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.1820%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x74c4…46d0backed No7c1,739$129 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$128.9560%0 W · 6 L-0.6wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x53fe…067dbacked No1c1,669$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x04f9…20eabacked No1c1,667$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.14per pick36cpaid-29.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x807f…f628backed No5c1,555$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8c9a…904cbacked No1c1,501$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1520%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd712…228dbacked No1c1,490$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xca1e…75edbacked Yes8c1,487$125 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,362.41478.6%11 W · 3 L+5.4wins+0.39per pick40cpaid+245.6%equal weight65+0.14 edge/pick
0xf8b5…1bcfbacked No2c1,391$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.4910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0372…8404backed Yes26c1,337$348 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$989.722100%2 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.47per pick53cpaid+155.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8dc4…65e6backed No2c1,335$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.0310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed Yes10c1,144$115 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,028.8714938.9%58 W · 91 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick40cpaid+11.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0423…bc2abacked No11c1,130$119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11910%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdc15…d576backed No48c1,049$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50020%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb147…a242backed No5c1,001$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc18a…7ccabacked No2c984.76$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1037…413fbacked Yes78c830.7$646 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$184.842100%2 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.39per pick61cpaid+75.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6c4c…ea0cbacked No2c799.99$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.540%0 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1fbc…3099backed No3c766.98$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked No12c762.56$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.3924732%79 W · 168 L+6.3wins+0.03per pick29cpaid-21.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed Yes43c762.18$325 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$437.0216334.4%56 W · 107 L-4.8wins-0.03per pick37cpaid+29.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1d8a…6b1ebacked No7c704.04$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.5110%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x038b…afc4backed No35c697.93$246 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$245.591225%3 W · 9 L-1.3wins-0.11per pick36cpaid-23.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x215f…e341backed Yes23c681.17$154 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$526.71100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.77per pick23cpaid+341%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd5b9…e44ebacked Yes44c649.99$285 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$364.562055%11 W · 9 L+2.0wins+0.10per pick45cpaid-0.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xd94e…e127backed No3c500$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.9920%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0a7a…df1bbacked No2c500$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103228.1%9 W · 23 L+2.3wins+0.07per pick21cpaid-7.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes52c499.99$261 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$238.8812234.4%42 W · 80 L-7.0wins-0.06per pick40cpaid-37.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x9d84…1344backed Yes8c447.23$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$411.15825.9%15 W · 43 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick24cpaid-26.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5d2b…66b9backed No3c445.84$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe944…0837backed Yes6c435$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$407.821100%1 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.94per pick6cpaid+1,500.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xdf34…6635backed Yes9c423$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$386.451100%1 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.91per pick9cpaid+1,057.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0a42…b1a5backed Yes76c419.36$321 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$98.71250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.12per pick62cpaid-34.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x99bc…4f35backed No21c401.44$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.513342.4%14 W · 19 L+2.3wins+0.07per pick36cpaid-5.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x90d5…5c3bbacked No34c368.65$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12520%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6869…21e8backed No10c350$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3610%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x37a4…a487backed No47c343.45$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$160.011060%6 W · 4 L+1.9wins+0.19per pick41cpaid+69%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xda2e…fe5ebacked No4c338.12$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.8510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xec05…b328backed No10c310$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.820%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x6828…1056backed No40c307.34$123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$123.264946.9%23 W · 26 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-11.4%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xe70c…6112backed No73c293.61$214 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$214.01450%2 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.08per pick58cpaid-25.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbdf7…65d9backed Yes51c275.84$141 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$135.1560%3 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.11per pick49cpaid+18%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x446f…7d4bbacked No50c271.29$135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$134.6710%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7412…0ccbbacked Yes10c245$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$221.21100%1 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.90per pick10cpaid+929.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6380…e74fbacked No42c236.74$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.320%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2cc7…5536backed Yes11c234$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$207.981643.8%7 W · 9 L+2.4wins+0.15per pick28cpaid+189.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xfa8f…7b3ebacked No9c210.74$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8725…eb10backed Yes27c204.99$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$148.891030%3 W · 7 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick26cpaid+103.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x385f…a21fbacked No10c200$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2020%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3135…8db7backed No5c200$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe103…59fdbacked No78c185.89$145 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$144.991070%7 W · 3 L+0.9wins+0.09per pick61cpaid+13%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x90bf…99ebbacked Yes70c177.42$125 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.82250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.13per pick37cpaid-28.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x19ac…cd93backed Yes6c167.66$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$157.61100%1 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.94per pick6cpaid+1,566.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x33ba…5b15backed Yes12c167.01$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$146.82366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.2wins+0.40per pick27cpaid+257%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x60cf…2258backed No19c153.94$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x37b4…d5e5backed Yes9c147$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$133.771145.5%5 W · 6 L+1.2wins+0.11per pick35cpaid+117.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xcbd4…5beabacked No21c145.6$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes27c141$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$103.522640.3%91 W · 135 L-10.9wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-19.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5906…c04cbacked No18c139.91$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.8wins-0.12per pick26cpaid-76.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6f19…b9ffbacked No70c130$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.63243.8%14 W · 18 L+2.5wins+0.08per pick36cpaid+23.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2d4b…ca7abacked No16c115$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.43724.3%9 W · 28 L+1.9wins+0.05per pick19cpaid+10.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x91b9…dcd8backed No72c110.57$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.811127.3%3 W · 8 L-1.9wins-0.17per pick45cpaid-50.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x3ea3…1c07backed Yes67c107.69$72 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.23per pick43cpaid+31.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9094…7526backed No10c101.82$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.0810%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3c00…0788backed Yes49c100$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$511030%3 W · 7 L-1.0wins-0.10per pick40cpaid-35.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x74cd…37acbacked No10c100$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x20e3…d1bdbacked No21c97.27$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20450%2 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-31.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x21c0…2ba7backed No44c66.11$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2910%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.44per pick44cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xaac8…3ef6backed No78c64.1$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5010%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.78per pick78cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x63b4…7e30backed No75c60$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.7425%1 W · 3 L-1.2wins-0.29per pick54cpaid-54.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x0020…0d22backed Yes80c60$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$121100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.20per pick80cpaid+25%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdd1b…75d8backed No20c50$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1020%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7373…7701backed Yes20c50$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$402133.3%7 W · 14 L+2.0wins+0.09per pick24cpaid+41.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x3fb2…9dadbacked No44c42.98$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.910%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.44per pick44cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0cb1…a76cbacked Yes61c39.03$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.22933.3%3 W · 6 L+0.8wins+0.09per pick24cpaid+23%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7dc5…7521backed No43c37.24$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1610%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x92c8…0c5bbacked No74c30$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.210%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.74per pick74cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x36ba…ad90backed No80c25$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2030%0 W · 3 L-1.2wins-0.41per pick41cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x3f4f…b4b3backed No73c19.24$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.996435.9%23 W · 41 L+4.1wins+0.06per pick30cpaid+37.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xc3ca…ca7cbacked Yes80c14.95$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2.992100%2 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.21per pick79cpaid+26.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Music and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.