TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

CS2 · resolved market

Counter-Strike: Liquid vs Heroic (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Liquidof Liquid, Heroic
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,096,420
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,192,303

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,096,420 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 676 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in CS2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xa5ea…d96abacked Heroic52c339,201$174,997 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$174,996.8942440.3%171 W · 253 L-12.5wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-9.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1136…0c2ebacked Liquid48c220,000$105,600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$114,399.9314050.7%71 W · 69 L-1.5wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-3.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5966…f804backed Liquid48c100,000$48,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51,999.943857.9%22 W · 16 L+4.4wins+0.11per pick46cpaid+28%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xe40e…9770backed Liquid48c83,319$39,660 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43,658.9817951.4%92 W · 87 L-6.6wins-0.04per pick55cpaid-12.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x65c1…2988backed Heroic52c68,847$35,800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35,800.373046.7%14 W · 16 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-2.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x47a8…52f9backed Liquid49c65,000$31,850 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33,149.9910142.6%43 W · 58 L-4.2wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2c33…0563backed Heroic51c57,825$29,491 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29,490.6526256.1%147 W · 115 L+19.8wins+0.08per pick49cpaid+14.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Heroic26c46,503$12,141 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,140.711,43139%558 W · 873 L-41.8wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-29%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0dcf…c556backed Liquid49c44,479$21,709 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22,769.0823839.9%95 W · 143 L-11.0wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-13.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x29b5…cc6cbacked Heroic52c43,682$22,828 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22,828.435,09555.1%2,805 W · 2,290 L+119.3wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+5.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x88d1…18dabacked Liquid49c36,735$18,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18,734.6922654.9%124 W · 102 L-9.8wins-0.04per pick59cpaid-9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x30c7…ac3bbacked Heroic52c35,000$18,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18,199.8177052.7%406 W · 364 L+28.0wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc44f…d49fbacked Liquid69c33,236$23,044 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,192.1621754.8%119 W · 98 L+10.2wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+10.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9854…6bf2backed Liquid49c30,000$14,612 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15,388.7210361.2%63 W · 40 L+6.4wins+0.06per pick55cpaid+4.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed Heroic47c17,883$8,478 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,478.442,64551.9%1,372 W · 1,273 L+21.0wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa9c4…7433backed Heroic52c15,250$7,930 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,929.9913345.1%60 W · 73 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-10.1%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xa41c…fadebacked Liquid48c12,000$5,760 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,2407646.1%35 W · 41 L+4.8wins+0.06per pick40cpaid+3.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xadfa…324ebacked Heroic52c12,000$6,240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,24036152.6%190 W · 171 L+13.7wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Heroic51c11,958$6,099 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,098.7223245.7%106 W · 126 L-8.2wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-0.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf070…ac55backed Liquid48c11,111$5,333 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,777.7233343.8%146 W · 187 L-14.0wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-11.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3da8…80c3backed Liquid48c10,417$5,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,416.6733359.8%199 W · 134 L+5.8wins+0.02per pick58cpaid+1.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x481d…9098backed Heroic52c10,000$5,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,2006259.7%37 W · 25 L+5.2wins+0.08per pick51cpaid+17%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xb7f5…c669backed Liquid48c10,000$4,800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,199.9667041.8%280 W · 390 L-5.9wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-3.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9c1c…7980backed Heroic51c10,000$5,100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,099.846841.2%28 W · 40 L-4.2wins-0.06per pick47cpaid-14.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x8cbf…0eb4backed Heroic50c9,373$4,727 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,727.2637157.7%214 W · 157 L+2.5wins+0.01per pick57cpaid-2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3471…f17ebacked Heroic9c9,310$835 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$835.371,06049%519 W · 541 L+37.6wins+0.04per pick45cpaid-10.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8f69…7df1backed Liquid48c9,019$4,329 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,689.6675550.6%382 W · 373 L+17.4wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+1.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x67b6…00bcbacked Liquid48c9,000$4,320 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,68028538.2%109 W · 176 L-10.0wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-8.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x79be…b605backed Heroic23c8,587$1,975 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,9756245.2%28 W · 34 L+1.4wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-8.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa927…8d9fbacked Liquid51c8,518$4,336 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,181.8134559.1%204 W · 141 L+3.5wins+0.01per pick58cpaid+4.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaf1a…ba1ebacked Heroic52c8,500$4,420 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,4204742.6%20 W · 27 L-1.1wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-1.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x482d…ba5ebacked Liquid49c8,017$3,928 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,088.777441.9%31 W · 43 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc49f…9e05backed Heroic52c8,000$4,160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,16035254%190 W · 162 L+13.0wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+6.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe111…685abacked Liquid49c8,000$3,953 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,047.1617540%70 W · 105 L+2.2wins+0.01per pick39cpaid+5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2d39…6053backed Heroic10c7,785$793 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$793.4289546.8%419 W · 476 L+9.6wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-15.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x86e9…4cdfbacked Liquid51c7,655$3,924 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,731.4236753.7%197 W · 170 L-8.3wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-6.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6dd3…6c9abacked Liquid48c7,441$3,588 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,853.191471.4%10 W · 4 L+3.3wins+0.23per pick48cpaid+40.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x183f…85e3backed Heroic53c7,200$3,816 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,81623848.3%115 W · 123 L+3.8wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-2.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xec98…afcdbacked Heroic9c6,441$581 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$580.761,61945.5%737 W · 882 L+31.3wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-13.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4b59…3aa6backed Heroic52c6,100$3,172 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,17285358.3%497 W · 356 L+60.2wins+0.07per pick51cpaid+14.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x03f4…7e44backed Liquid77c6,050$4,658 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,391.551252.3%268 W · 244 L+16.5wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+5.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7645…3117backed Heroic52c6,000$3,120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,12072046.1%332 W · 388 L-2.6wins0.00per pick46cpaid-1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2529…548abacked Liquid67c6,000$4,020 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,9803,23651.2%1,657 W · 1,579 L+88.9wins+0.03per pick48cpaid-6.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xafd4…7e61backed Heroic52c6,000$3,120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,12011638.8%45 W · 71 L-7.3wins-0.06per pick45cpaid-20.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x0562…18a4backed Heroic52c5,769$3,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,00020947.8%100 W · 109 L+3.8wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+6.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2f63…f247backed Liquid48c5,555$2,666 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,888.615052.7%79 W · 71 L+6.5wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+10%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x182d…73e9backed Liquid47c5,012$2,355 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,656.178939.5%312 W · 477 L-3.9wins0.00per pick40cpaid-1.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x4337…8882backed Heroic52c5,000$2,600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,60088242.3%373 W · 509 L-13.0wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-1.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x7714…b814backed Heroic53c5,000$2,650 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,6509551.6%49 W · 46 L-3.1wins-0.03per pick55cpaid-9.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x211d…3ab7backed Liquid70c4,970$3,485 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,485.5819351.8%100 W · 93 L-6.3wins-0.03per pick55cpaid-9.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8056…b64dbacked Liquid49c4,820$2,346 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,474.31,62944.8%730 W · 899 L+4.7wins0.00per pick45cpaid-5.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3bae…885abacked Liquid48c4,253$2,042 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,211.7527658%160 W · 116 L+3.6wins+0.01per pick57cpaid-0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0267…7f7ebacked Heroic29c4,229$1,214 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,213.822334.8%8 W · 15 L-1.7wins-0.07per pick42cpaid-34.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9def…6eacbacked Liquid48c4,167$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,166.6720358.1%118 W · 85 L+22.4wins+0.11per pick47cpaid+25%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x7881…83e9backed Heroic52c4,135$2,150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,150.38333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.24per pick58cpaid-46.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe916…7e93backed Liquid48c4,091$1,964 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,127.463636.1%13 W · 23 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick34cpaid-2.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x424e…263bbacked Heroic52c4,030$2,078 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,078.023455.9%19 W · 15 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-5.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x72aa…90e0backed Liquid70c4,000$2,800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,2004,23849.2%2,085 W · 2,153 L+60.6wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-10.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xc922…2618backed Heroic51c4,000$2,040 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,039.9827353.1%145 W · 128 L+13.6wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+13%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xff34…694bbacked Heroic49c3,340$1,639 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,639.051,79059.2%1,060 W · 730 L+106.1wins+0.06per pick53cpaid+4.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x0a74…6cd2backed Heroic41c3,280$1,353 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,352.724262%150 W · 92 L+11.4wins+0.05per pick57cpaid+6.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc16c…a3aabacked Heroic52c3,259$1,695 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,694.546256.5%35 W · 27 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick56cpaid0%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1d5c…4f26backed Heroic45c3,192$1,450 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,45035236.4%128 W · 224 L-1.4wins0.00per pick37cpaid+3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3d2b…afc5backed Heroic15c3,153$488 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$488.2819659.2%116 W · 80 L+18.2wins+0.09per pick50cpaid+2.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xd2f4…cddbbacked Liquid52c3,130$1,627 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,503.3613371.4%95 W · 38 L+11.8wins+0.09per pick63cpaid+15.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x6261…4adbbacked Liquid48c3,125$1,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,6252748.1%13 W · 14 L+1.7wins+0.06per pick42cpaid+7.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6b97…8d30backed Heroic53c3,079$1,632 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,632.0867951.4%349 W · 330 L+6.1wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x482b…3266backed Heroic52c3,000$1,560 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,5602040%8 W · 12 L-1.4wins-0.07per pick47cpaid-20.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x60d0…e05fbacked Liquid80c3,000$2,400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6005844.8%26 W · 32 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-3.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4379…2e16backed Heroic52c3,000$1,560 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,56017045.9%78 W · 92 L+2.0wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf917…bde0backed Heroic52c2,880$1,498 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,497.612453.2%66 W · 58 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-2.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x51db…f9b3backed Heroic25c2,879$724 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$724.486,50142.9%2,791 W · 3,710 L-79.3wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-21.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe5c1…7487backed Heroic35c2,857$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00016732.9%55 W · 112 L-9.8wins-0.06per pick39cpaid-25.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x904e…0becbacked Heroic16c2,765$437 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$437.345,03437.2%1,874 W · 3,160 L-260.4wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-32.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x82dc…5700backed Heroic15c2,511$378 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$378.0687847.9%421 W · 457 L+16.0wins+0.02per pick46cpaid-13.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xda34…01a8backed Liquid47c2,500$1,175 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,32511633.6%39 W · 77 L-0.3wins0.00per pick34cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe922…39b3backed Heroic53c2,358$1,250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,249.7460248.7%293 W · 309 L+0.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid+1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf4ec…c574backed Heroic52c2,318$1,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,20049251%251 W · 241 L-21.1wins-0.04per pick55cpaid-10%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2fcb…78cfbacked Heroic52c2,305$1,189 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,188.7723653.8%127 W · 109 L+7.1wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+5.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa35b…60e9backed Heroic7c2,220$155 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$154.9755343.2%239 W · 314 L-6.1wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-7.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x815f…1eefbacked Liquid61c2,216$1,352 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$864.1919351.3%99 W · 94 L+4.1wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+7.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4a57…7b0abacked Liquid64c2,151$1,377 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$774.5322449.6%111 W · 113 L+6.7wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+1.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9f44…c584backed Liquid48c2,070$994 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,076.472100%2 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.57per pick43cpaid+137.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x66b1…340fbacked Liquid55c2,060$1,136 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$924.131,16748.2%562 W · 605 L+1.8wins0.00per pick48cpaid+0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xae2b…9cc3backed Liquid76c2,040$1,550 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$489.622554.2%122 W · 103 L+9.5wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+13.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x751b…73fdbacked Liquid77c2,031$1,565 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46625855%142 W · 116 L+4.3wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa106…5abbbacked Liquid69c2,027$1,402 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$624.918459.5%50 W · 34 L+3.3wins+0.04per pick56cpaid+5.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd0e9…67ffbacked Heroic52c2,000$1,040 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0402842.9%12 W · 16 L-2.0wins-0.07per pick50cpaid-16.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xadfb…c2efbacked Heroic53c2,000$1,050 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,05055843.5%243 W · 315 L-16.8wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-6.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2a74…de59backed Heroic52c2,000$1,040 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0407951.9%41 W · 38 L-0.4wins0.00per pick52cpaid-3.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x83b3…b3a2backed Heroic24c2,000$480 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48018547%87 W · 98 L+5.3wins+0.03per pick44cpaid+6.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf3ef…ca6bbacked Heroic45c1,958$889 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$888.981,51357.2%865 W · 648 L+65.4wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+0.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x09ce…af35backed Heroic17c1,932$337 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$337.1910650.9%54 W · 52 L+3.7wins+0.04per pick47cpaid-4.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdd88…dadbbacked Liquid48c1,904$914 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$990.0865351.9%339 W · 314 L+10.6wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+4.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc34b…9296backed Heroic52c1,879$983 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$982.572,03053.7%1,091 W · 939 L+6.3wins0.00per pick53cpaid+2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x791e…9bdabacked Heroic52c1,858$966 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$966.3319346.1%89 W · 104 L+8.0wins+0.04per pick42cpaid+14.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5213…6a35backed Heroic52c1,827$950 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95013732.1%44 W · 93 L-11.2wins-0.08per pick40cpaid-21%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xb6ce…7a7dbacked Heroic12c1,748$201 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201.371,26346.9%592 W · 671 L+18.7wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-15.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xed44…4f76backed Heroic7c1,697$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110.7452242.5%222 W · 300 L+4.2wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-24.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x94f1…b9e7backed Liquid49c1,633$800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$832.6535048%168 W · 182 L-8.5wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-13.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.