TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Us Politics · resolved market

Will Curtis Sliwa drop out?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$5,117,965
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$5,342,418

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,117,965 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 567 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Us Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x1340…13e3backed Yes11c162,284$17,823 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17,823.4810%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x88b7…b85cbacked Yes5c158,659$8,276 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,275.9510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa13a…a30abacked Yes6c121,649$7,292 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,292.3210%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x24c8…23e1backed Yes3c94,772$2,697 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,697.3515124.5%37 W · 114 L-3.7wins-0.02per pick27cpaid-42%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x14ec…1b42backed Yes9c86,120$7,441 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,440.720%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes8c73,970$6,197 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,196.5433313.2%44 W · 289 L+9.2wins+0.03per pick10cpaid-3.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7bb7…6e92backed Yes11c67,677$7,736 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,73610%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf541…419dbacked Yes0c66,300$201 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200.9510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8096…762cbacked Yes14c65,145$9,368 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,368.1110%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdad8…2842backed Yes8c63,910$5,059 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,059.0410%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5ef2…f473backed Yes1c61,561$308 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$307.81156.7%1 W · 14 L-1.2wins-0.08per pick14cpaid-87.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x50be…371bbacked Yes0c60,010$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xafba…e61bbacked Yes9c58,397$5,187 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,186.9820%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x295b…2e44backed Yes0c55,567$257 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$257.081315.4%2 W · 11 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick18cpaid-66.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x55f5…27e9backed Yes9c53,761$4,992 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,99210%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x52d2…2280backed Yes14c52,010$7,033 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,032.62633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.14per pick47cpaid-54%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf492…3061backed Yes1c48,037$407 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$407.011136.4%4 W · 7 L+1.1wins+0.10per pick27cpaid-28.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb5e6…8852backed Yes0c47,209$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20020%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf75c…50dfbacked Yes12c42,050$4,891 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,891.3710%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa9b4…64edbacked Yes1c41,799$277 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$276.83214.8%1 W · 20 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick4cpaid-79.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe48f…97f8backed Yes1c39,102$213 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$213.0510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7ac8…77cdbacked Yes1c37,271$191 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$190.710035%35 W · 65 L+2.3wins+0.02per pick33cpaid+11.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf141…d9aabacked Yes1c35,149$263 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$263.16650%3 W · 3 L+0.6wins+0.09per pick41cpaid-32.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1fd5…199fbacked Yes1c30,388$258 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$258425%1 W · 3 L+0.7wins+0.18per pick7cpaid+56.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc2a8…34f5backed Yes0c28,000$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.5560%3 W · 2 L+1.5wins+0.31per pick29cpaid+54.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x27db…a440backed Yes0c25,643$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.2930%0 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes6c24,622$1,390 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,390.28931.1%1 W · 92 L-3.0wins-0.03per pick4cpaid-94.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbefa…300dbacked Yes1c24,530$221 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$220.9610%0 W · 61 L-1.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4053…5e1cbacked Yes0c24,500$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x07d4…8991backed Yes2c22,800$414 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$414.2512910.9%14 W · 115 L+3.6wins+0.03per pick8cpaid-44.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe1e7…5fb6backed Yes18c22,244$4,016 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,015.512245.5%10 W · 12 L+2.2wins+0.10per pick35cpaid-2.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x3975…0f53backed Yes0c22,210$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.032317.4%4 W · 19 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick18cpaid-49.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc254…3f73backed Yes1c21,200$192 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$191.762646.2%12 W · 14 L-0.9wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-29.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4ffe…2ab2backed Yes20c20,650$4,175 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,175560%3 W · 2 L+1.8wins+0.37per pick23cpaid+105.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x8258…0f56backed Yes0c20,629$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.0910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbacd…ab35backed Yes4c20,477$731 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$730.9118425%46 W · 138 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick24cpaid-37.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x57dd…6ab4backed Yes21c20,299$4,177 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,176.7630%0 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4aae…d563backed Yes16c20,004$3,104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,103.873240.6%13 W · 19 L-4.7wins-0.15per pick55cpaid-22.9%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x6480…8dc5backed Yes1c20,000$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$130150%0 W · 15 L-0.8wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf1e1…498fbacked Yes7c19,880$1,363 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,36310%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x90bf…99ebbacked Yes2c19,577$422 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$422.2630%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf48a…3594backed Yes32c19,236$6,127 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,126.9440%0 W · 4 L-1.2wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xee50…7ed6backed Yes10c18,388$1,806 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,806.12475%3 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.19per pick56cpaid+5.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xde35…e2ffbacked Yes1c18,382$166 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16650%0 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xebba…38e2backed Yes15c17,920$2,750 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,75010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf27d…e6d3backed Yes4c16,934$679 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$679.12825%7 W · 21 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick23cpaid-9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1e17…8c6bbacked Yes0c16,515$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.3410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0b7d…79cebacked Yes0c16,483$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb72b…f4e0backed Yes5c16,415$772 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$771.741822.2%4 W · 14 L-1.0wins-0.06per pick28cpaid-23%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5ecd…0787backed Yes3c16,410$426 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$425.894955.1%27 W · 22 L+4.5wins+0.09per pick46cpaid-3.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x06a9…1a49backed Yes1c16,161$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.872123.8%5 W · 16 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick23cpaid+53.8%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x149d…a1d5backed Yes0c16,000$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x52b3…3a58backed Yes4c14,580$653 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$652.622814.3%4 W · 24 L-2.0wins-0.07per pick21cpaid-41.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf18d…77f0backed Yes1c14,448$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7d5c…0182backed Yes17c14,267$2,425 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,425.41540%2 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.09per pick31cpaid-8.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5109…5e9cbacked Yes8c14,050$1,073 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,073.418033.3%60 W · 120 L+3.7wins+0.02per pick31cpaid-10.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x75a1…52eebacked Yes1c13,799$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.7220%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x49b6…170cbacked Yes14c12,891$1,806 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,805.696053.3%32 W · 28 L+6.0wins+0.10per pick43cpaid+34.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x7999…1d86backed Yes0c12,500$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$502326.1%6 W · 17 L-1.2wins-0.05per pick31cpaid-52.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf472…a262backed Yes2c12,000$296 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$296.142412.5%3 W · 21 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick11cpaid-53.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3a69…a466backed Yes1c12,000$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9640%0 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc550…97d6backed Yes17c11,871$2,012 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,012.46475%3 W · 1 L+1.3wins+0.33per pick42cpaid+83.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x252a…33d7backed Yes1c11,614$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7520%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb412…3026backed No71c11,601$8,279 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,322.51450%7 W · 7 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-18%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4db6…9842backed Yes1c11,369$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$113.6910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb0d0…d4c2backed Yes1c11,128$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0049…3a9abacked Yes8c10,975$888 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$888.11128.3%1 W · 11 L-0.5wins-0.04per pick12cpaid-85.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2fe1…b7e5backed Yes3c10,404$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$300520%1 W · 4 L+0.3wins+0.07per pick13cpaid-3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x645e…d120backed Yes1c10,000$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1402138.1%8 W · 13 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-34.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xed32…20d6backed Yes21c10,000$2,100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,1001442.9%6 W · 8 L-0.6wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-33.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0cee…f962backed Yes18c10,000$1,760 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,760.081080%8 W · 2 L+2.7wins+0.27per pick53cpaid+57.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x6d89…637ebacked Yes1c10,000$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.19per pick31cpaid-19.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xdaef…54e9backed Yes17c10,000$1,740 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,7402339.1%9 W · 14 L-2.3wins-0.10per pick49cpaid-43%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xeb6f…25f0backed Yes1c10,000$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$801553.3%8 W · 7 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+10.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0b64…49bdbacked Yes15c9,960$1,511 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,510.617254.2%39 W · 33 L+6.2wins+0.09per pick46cpaid+17.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x0377…810ebacked Yes1c9,846$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.232516%4 W · 21 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick19cpaid-58.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xc7a3…6c03backed Yes21c9,722$1,995 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,99510%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe3ae…440ebacked Yes17c9,500$1,585 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,585728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.06per pick35cpaid-58%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x3094…3cc7backed Yes1c9,410$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11220%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x30e4…5102backed Yes15c9,095$1,374 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,374.4713540%54 W · 81 L+5.1wins+0.04per pick36cpaid-11.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xda42…dc4fbacked Yes11c9,011$981 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$981.02616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.08per pick24cpaid-72.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xbdd1…0c4fbacked No79c8,925$7,021 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,903.425527.3%15 W · 40 L-2.7wins-0.05per pick32cpaid-49%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xdcc1…983abacked Yes0c8,600$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x38e5…95e7backed No65c8,585$5,567 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,018.438036.3%29 W · 51 L+3.2wins+0.04per pick32cpaid-8.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3499…7a54backed Yes1c8,287$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6950…b32abacked Yes21c8,234$1,700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,700742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-24.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x91ce…16ecbacked No73c8,120$5,964 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,156.641030%3 W · 7 L-1.6wins-0.16per pick46cpaid-47.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x0026…1ed5backed Yes4c7,977$292 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$292.15825%2 W · 6 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick27cpaid-33.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcf37…993fbacked Yes13c7,785$1,035 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,035.21195.3%1 W · 18 L-1.8wins-0.09per pick15cpaid-87.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x64e9…9657backed Yes28c7,771$2,174 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,173.99250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.13per pick37cpaid+10.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2afd…deb0backed Yes3c7,579$190 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1901010%1 W · 9 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick13cpaid-76.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2cd6…b04abacked Yes1c7,483$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4030%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x866b…7411backed Yes1c7,375$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaf9f…f6a3backed Yes28c7,194$2,025 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,025.171040%4 W · 6 L+0.7wins+0.07per pick33cpaid-1.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc4ef…974cbacked Yes0c6,998$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.99450%2 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-16.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfa32…bd9abacked Yes7c6,585$433 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$433.398444%37 W · 47 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-15.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcf6e…b45bbacked Yes17c6,410$1,116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,115.654156.1%23 W · 18 L+3.7wins+0.09per pick47cpaid-8.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xcb14…bcc9backed Yes28c6,025$1,680 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,679.922250%11 W · 11 L+3.0wins+0.14per pick36cpaid+24.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x3ef0…5e26backed Yes2c5,999$132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$131.9710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x629c…6c01backed Yes25c5,909$1,480 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,480.27728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick33cpaid-38.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.