AI · resolved market
Will Larry Ellison be richest person on December 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7afc0f30084037c7b4d42278c32c8184461de8ed497387c5bce98dccdec515ff
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $355,418
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $105,092
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $355,418 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd6a2…9a02backed Yes | 0c | 36,293$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.29 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d8e…5ef1backed Yes | 0c | 34,867$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.87 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe556…3157backed Yes | 0c | 28,494$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.06 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa39…977fbacked Yes | 0c | 20,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 34 | 8.8%3 W · 31 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -88.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe4b0…0799backed Yes | 0c | 18,021$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.02 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x022e…06b0backed Yes | 0c | 17,942$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.94 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc3c…a0e8backed Yes | 0c | 17,651$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.65 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb2c…4ec6backed Yes | 0c | 17,575$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.58 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6840…1d20backed Yes | 0c | 17,508$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.51 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb137…ac6cbacked Yes | 0c | 17,358$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.36 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4bda…eca1backed Yes | 0c | 17,322$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x038f…4535backed Yes | 10c | 12,168$1,185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,184.69 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 18cpaid | -67.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5eb0…5012backed Yes | 3c | 6,284$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204.84 | 24 | 16.7%4 W · 20 L | -1.6wins | -0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -57%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28ca…5d19backed Yes | 10c | 2,744$271 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270.59 | 42 | 28.6%12 W · 30 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Yes | 10c | 2,186$214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$213.87 | 60 | 41.7%25 W · 35 L | +3.7wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 2c | 1,841$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.09 | 1,363 | 6.8%93 W · 1,270 L | -20.2wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbefa…300dbacked Yes | 5c | 1,310$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.5 | 149 | 1.3%2 W · 147 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 2cpaid | -83.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa03e…269bbacked Yes | 22c | 1,260$277 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$277.17 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6358…cc23backed Yes | 7c | 832$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.71 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe592…17d1backed Yes | 17c | 705.88$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe504…70efbacked Yes | 15c | 634.28$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.31 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | -1.5wins | -0.08per pick | 25cpaid | -76.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9fd4…325cbacked Yes | 16c | 600$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95 | 24 | 16.7%4 W · 20 L | -5.7wins | -0.24per pick | 40cpaid | -75.7%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x7c9e…db3dbacked Yes | 8c | 522.86$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.03 | 150 | 2.7%4 W · 146 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -49.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd5a…f7a4backed Yes | 7c | 499.98$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -19%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66a1…80d9backed Yes | 8c | 400$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.8 | 83 | 6%5 W · 78 L | -2.6wins | -0.03per pick | 9cpaid | -65.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd8bf…8ecebacked Yes | 14c | 220$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.8 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -48.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x37a4…a487backed Yes | 25c | 214.19$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.27 | 40 | 45%18 W · 22 L | +3.0wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4745…5916backed Yes | 6c | 200$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 96 | 37.5%36 W · 60 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -32%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3fb…57e5backed Yes | 11c | 200$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 47 | 55.3%26 W · 21 L | +5.5wins | +0.12per pick | 44cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2762…d65abacked Yes | 10c | 191.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -2.4wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfc14…2e9bbacked No | 78c | 191.46$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.12 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -27%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xce60…6705backed Yes | 15c | 186$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.4 | 48 | 37.5%18 W · 30 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…783dbacked Yes | 20c | 173.91$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.78 | 126 | 36.5%46 W · 80 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01e7…89b4backed Yes | 14c | 172$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.86 | 47 | 29.8%14 W · 33 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -32%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed Yes | 12c | 165$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 288 | 28.5%82 W · 206 L | -5.3wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x62cc…9d0fbacked Yes | 11c | 150$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca90…2badbacked No | 75c | 135$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.75 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 55cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e37…5227backed Yes | 17c | 123.53$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b91…2709backed Yes | 21c | 101.08$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.08 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | +5.1wins | +0.20per pick | 38cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x01f4…d22dbacked Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 12cpaid | -65.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x49ae…7ab8backed Yes | 16c | 94.38$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 18c | 93.36$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.58 | 729 | 35.5%259 W · 470 L | -57.8wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x300d…ab3dbacked Yes | 24c | 58.83$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.12 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4f…b4b3backed Yes | 21c | 49.53$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.49 | 211 | 25.6%54 W · 157 L | -8.1wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb07d…23dcbacked No | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 68 | 29.4%20 W · 48 L | +6.0wins | +0.09per pick | 21cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Larry Ellison be richest person on December 31?this page
- Will Bernard Arnault be richest person on December 31?No won
- Will Elon Musk be richest person on December 31?Yes won
- Will Jeff Bezos be richest person on December 31?No won
- Will Jensen Huang be richest person on December 31?No won
- Will Mark Zuckerberg be richest person on December 31?No won
- Will Warren Buffett be richest person on December 31?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.