AI · resolved market
Will Elon Musk be richest person on December 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xba66c1683bdd5ad50ec6961f3ac7ec28a9e6c3ad8863dc7237215504dba0e635
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $610,909
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $403,854
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $610,909 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbefa…300dbacked No | 1c | 11,210$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.7 | 150 | 1.3%2 W · 148 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 2cpaid | -84%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d0d…ef5fbacked No | 13c | 9,500$1,245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,244.99 | 46 | 41.3%19 W · 27 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5918…cb42backed No | 1c | 7,605$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.87 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd387…7270backed No | 1c | 5,090$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x07d4…8991backed No | 2c | 4,134$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.33 | 631 | 1.3%8 W · 623 L | -7.2wins | -0.01per pick | 2cpaid | -88.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed No | 1c | 3,902$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.41 | 252 | 2%5 W · 247 L | -4.9wins | -0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -74.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x038f…4535backed No | 14c | 3,225$451 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$450.59 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 18cpaid | -67.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9720…927abacked No | 1c | 2,140$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf797…0bf2backed No | 9c | 2,000$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.99 | 126 | 36.5%46 W · 80 L | +5.3wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +20%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4706…286ebacked No | 1c | 1,930$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.37 | 71 | 2.8%2 W · 69 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0ac…c2aabacked No | 23c | 1,828$429 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$428.61 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 10c | 1,207$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.62 | 154 | 52.6%81 W · 73 L | +9.9wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 5c | 1,011$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.93 | 1,368 | 6.8%93 W · 1,275 L | -20.4wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -59.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 32c | 734.02$237 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$237.19 | 259 | 31.7%82 W · 177 L | -14.4wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbf65…fde8backed No | 25c | 528.13$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.63 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Yes | 68c | 471$321 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.17 | 60 | 41.7%25 W · 35 L | +3.7wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 14c | 429.44$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.39 | 574 | 26.8%154 W · 420 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x263d…d077backed No | 18c | 401.42$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7870…0d10backed No | 13c | 396.73$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9833…0b32backed No | 18c | 332$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.76 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 34cpaid | -65%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc64f…f19fbacked No | 11c | 272.73$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ac8…77cdbacked No | 6c | 249.98$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.9wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x886f…c994backed No | 11c | 245.64$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.02 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbdf7…65d9backed No | 18c | 200$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.99 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf5d1…67ccbacked Yes | 73c | 200$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55 | 33 | 42.4%14 W · 19 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b91…2709backed Yes | 70c | 200$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.25 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | +5.1wins | +0.20per pick | 38cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e9…7dcbbacked No | 35c | 200$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf95…7865backed No | 12c | 176.57$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.07 | 183 | 23%42 W · 141 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5903…f218backed No | 9c | 172.7$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.21 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | +1.7wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | +15%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3673…ce22backed No | 9c | 149.98$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -43.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc2e4…205bbacked No | 13c | 130.86$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.87 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x56a1…7b89backed No | 12c | 125$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -62.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff7c…b233backed No | 16c | 104.95$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.79 | 39 | 23.1%9 W · 30 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa03e…269bbacked Yes | 63c | 100$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x73dc…8d32backed No | 17c | 100$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 43 | 48.8%21 W · 22 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0ab…e61ebacked No | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb07d…23dcbacked Yes | 57c | 87$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.14 | 68 | 29.4%20 W · 48 L | +6.0wins | +0.09per pick | 21cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x581d…b2e3backed Yes | 60c | 82.1$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.84 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +2.3wins | +0.14per pick | 55cpaid | +85%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xce60…6705backed No | 17c | 81$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.37 | 48 | 37.5%18 W · 30 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 31c | 80.94$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.49 | 734 | 35.6%261 W · 473 L | -58.5wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x29ef…dddabacked Yes | 73c | 79.11$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.36 | 102 | 44.1%45 W · 57 L | +2.8wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec76…f9f1backed No | 17c | 77.05$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.36 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -2.1wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4a37…3ff4backed Yes | 65c | 77$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +55.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e83…9394backed No | 30c | 43.41$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.02 | 75 | 10.7%8 W · 67 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -82.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93f2…402abacked No | 41c | 34.34$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcdc3…a71fbacked Yes | 79c | 31$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.64 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | +2.2wins | +0.10per pick | 31cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe2ca…074bbacked Yes | 70c | 27.57$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.27 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaec5…26ebbacked Yes | 70c | 25.84$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.85 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +43.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 80c | 25.24$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.05 | 481 | 38%183 W · 298 L | -11.1wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon Musk be richest person on December 31?this page
- Will Bernard Arnault be richest person on December 31?No won
- Will Jeff Bezos be richest person on December 31?No won
- Will Jensen Huang be richest person on December 31?No won
- Will Larry Ellison be richest person on December 31?No won
- Will Mark Zuckerberg be richest person on December 31?No won
- Will Warren Buffett be richest person on December 31?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.