Movies · resolved market
Will "Emily in Paris: Season 5" be the #2 global Netflix show this week? (December 30, 2025)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe0da9d20590c8a4c2dbd3eb380bed663e4803c429dc956bb8a09b51cdd599f3b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,460
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $28,202
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,460 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 50 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x12d3…53c1backed Yes | 41c | 2,462$998 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,463.42 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | +3.0wins | +0.14per pick | 24cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6c7d…d6ebbacked No | 24c | 2,448$588 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$588.01 | 331 | 23.9%79 W · 252 L | +12.0wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | -15%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x110f…8f39backed Yes | 60c | 2,109$1,268 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$840.38 | 44 | 72.7%32 W · 12 L | +8.7wins | +0.20per pick | 53cpaid | +59.9%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x011b…e44dbacked Yes | 66c | 1,738$1,145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$593.42 | 67 | 31.3%21 W · 46 L | -4.0wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb9d…e31bbacked No | 46c | 702.17$325 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$325.5 | 36 | 55.6%20 W · 16 L | +3.7wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xde5e…3a94backed Yes | 44c | 450$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$252.4 | 38 | 47.4%18 W · 20 L | +4.3wins | +0.11per pick | 36cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe732…898fbacked No | 43c | 431$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.72 | 146 | 28.1%41 W · 105 L | -4.0wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf416…6ec9backed No | 34c | 400$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.22 | 137 | 40.1%55 W · 82 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -23%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc684…2228backed No | 42c | 390$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.82 | 184 | 44%81 W · 103 L | +7.4wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x643f…e306backed Yes | 56c | 376.32$211 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.58 | 33 | 33.3%11 W · 22 L | +3.9wins | +0.12per pick | 22cpaid | -37%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2375…691fbacked No | 30c | 344$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.08 | 246 | 34.6%85 W · 161 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed Yes | 45c | 328$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180.47 | 346 | 51.2%177 W · 169 L | +17.0wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +10%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x28ca…5d19backed No | 35c | 317$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.48 | 194 | 40.2%78 W · 116 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb880…c0f9backed Yes | 56c | 280.28$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.41 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 8c | 200$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.4 | 204 | 2.9%6 W · 198 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -51.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x401e…6fc9backed Yes | 71c | 194$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.44 | 175 | 40%70 W · 105 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdf95…694dbacked Yes | 68c | 188.78$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.91 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 8c | 154.3$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.78 | 112 | 40.2%45 W · 67 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf489…4cb0backed No | 28c | 150$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.5 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 26cpaid | -74.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9dfb…e887backed Yes | 77c | 131.21$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.82 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -1.4wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 32c | 118.56$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.96 | 1,394 | 8%111 W · 1,283 L | -47.9wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0fe5…8449backed Yes | 30c | 101$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.05 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd55…c9bfbacked Yes | 61c | 100$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 19cpaid | -77.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea96…11e3backed No | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | +2.9wins | +0.13per pick | 26cpaid | +6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe9b5…f95bbacked Yes | 40c | 100$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd9f…c1a4backed Yes | 47c | 91.81$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.66 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +112.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2e8…e923backed Yes | 72c | 81.83$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.17 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +1.8wins | +0.13per pick | 59cpaid | +25%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeec5…b6febacked No | 64c | 68.51$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.98 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -2.6wins | -0.14per pick | 53cpaid | -47.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x25e5…6563backed No | 30c | 66.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | -2.5wins | -0.13per pick | 34cpaid | -61%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe626…6771backed Yes | 69c | 62.23$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.28 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed Yes | 71c | 60$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.6 | 83 | 45.8%38 W · 45 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 37c | 56.81$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.94 | 1,218 | 17.8%217 W · 1,001 L | -124.0wins | -0.10per pick | 28cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed Yes | 68c | 52.44$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.78 | 28 | 21.4%6 W · 22 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -57%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x215a…254cbacked No | 32c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.1 | 101 | 39.6%40 W · 61 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a33…3ea9backed No | 25c | 49.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce31…19c4backed Yes | 32c | 45.12$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.73 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | +2.4wins | +0.11per pick | 25cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x03d0…d647backed Yes | 34c | 36.84$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.31 | 61 | 52.5%32 W · 29 L | +2.9wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd45…59b2backed No | 63c | 36.52$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.92 | 38 | 36.8%14 W · 24 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8975…ffe6backed Yes | 61c | 33.57$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.98 | 206 | 68.9%142 W · 64 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1683…6906backed Yes | 72c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.52 | 58 | 22.4%13 W · 45 L | -3.5wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -43%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf79d…4b58backed Yes | 73c | 27$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.29 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01e7…89b4backed Yes | 73c | 26.9$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.29 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x945e…6bd7backed No | 44c | 23.64$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 66c | 22$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.52 | 208 | 50%104 W · 104 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x256e…8a38backed Yes | 46c | 22$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.88 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +117.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xabad…2e9ebacked Yes | 75c | 20.05$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.01 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b11…06bcbacked No | 70c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.70per pick | 70cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc877…05b4backed No | 57c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 43 | 46.5%20 W · 23 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x176f…0fa3backed Yes | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 73cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa616…72d6backed Yes | 75c | 18.29$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.57 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "Emily in Paris: Season 5" be the #2 global Netflix show this week? (December 30, 2025)this page
- Will "Christmas Gameday: Cowboys vs. Commanders" be the #2 global Netflix show this week? (December 30, 2025)No won
- Will "Christmas Gameday: Lions vs. Vikings" be the #2 global Netflix show this week? (December 30, 2025)No won
- Will "Man Vs. Baby" be the #2 global Netflix show this week? (December 30, 2025)No won
- Will "Stranger Things: Season 5" be the #2 global Netflix show this week? (December 30, 2025)No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.