Movies · resolved market
Will "Christmas Gameday: Cowboys vs. Commanders" be the #2 global Netflix show this week? (December 30, 2025)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf20e936619100d50b2fbb1da8b24db025663193d8563e1853a0765db9b35a871
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,880
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,578
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,880 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 17 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3143…cd52backed Yes | 55c | 866$476 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$476.3 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +60.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12ef…f5cebacked No | 45c | 730$329 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$401.5 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | +1.5wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x319c…4a94backed Yes | 55c | 696$383 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$382.8 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6578…ba32backed No | 45c | 614$276 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$337.7 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -2.9wins | -0.14per pick | 42cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6705…7ddcbacked No | 45c | 522$235 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$287.1 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1683…6906backed Yes | 10c | 452$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.35 | 58 | 22.4%13 W · 45 L | -3.5wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -43%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 6c | 411.62$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.39 | 1,394 | 8%111 W · 1,283 L | -47.9wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8e3e…0959backed Yes | 55c | 289$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.95 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -3.1wins | -0.24per pick | 47cpaid | -65.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0fe5…8449backed Yes | 41c | 171.88$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.06 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed Yes | 36c | 120.2$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.86 | 346 | 51.2%177 W · 169 L | +17.0wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +10%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe9b5…f95bbacked Yes | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc684…2228backed Yes | 37c | 88$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.73 | 184 | 44%81 W · 103 L | +7.4wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe732…898fbacked Yes | 36c | 78$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.38 | 146 | 28.1%41 W · 105 L | -4.0wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12d3…53c1backed No | 40c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | +3.0wins | +0.14per pick | 24cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x03d0…d647backed No | 53c | 46$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.62 | 61 | 52.5%32 W · 29 L | +2.9wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc877…05b4backed No | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 43 | 46.5%20 W · 23 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 61c | 18$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.02 | 208 | 50%104 W · 104 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "Christmas Gameday: Cowboys vs. Commanders" be the #2 global Netflix show this week? (December 30, 2025)this page
- Will "Christmas Gameday: Lions vs. Vikings" be the #2 global Netflix show this week? (December 30, 2025)No won
- Will "Emily in Paris: Season 5" be the #2 global Netflix show this week? (December 30, 2025)Yes won
- Will "Man Vs. Baby" be the #2 global Netflix show this week? (December 30, 2025)No won
- Will "Stranger Things: Season 5" be the #2 global Netflix show this week? (December 30, 2025)No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.