Movies · resolved market
Will "Christmas Gameday: Lions vs. Vikings" be the #2 global Netflix show this week? (December 30, 2025)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd52505cdaf9b2ed2a3c935fb70a777ae33bc2f05af82f7f679eb4bc5b031f8a5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,724
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,637
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,724 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x31a8…1f07backed Yes | 15c | 1,186$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.9 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | -1.7wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe136…cacebacked Yes | 16c | 958$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.28 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +1.4wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5383…88f0backed Yes | 16c | 808$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.28 | 35 | 28.6%10 W · 25 L | -5.2wins | -0.15per pick | 43cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x19cd…f7ffbacked Yes | 16c | 714$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.24 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9081…0b1ebacked Yes | 15c | 561$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.15 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb06…fc06backed Yes | 18c | 444.99$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.48 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -54.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90ae…44adbacked Yes | 16c | 412$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.92 | 39 | 51.3%20 W · 19 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43b3…6193backed Yes | 11c | 320$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.4 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.17per pick | 31cpaid | -63.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe732…898fbacked Yes | 10c | 318.33$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.54 | 146 | 28.1%41 W · 105 L | -4.0wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…4441backed Yes | 15c | 239$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.85 | 28 | 28.6%8 W · 20 L | -3.7wins | -0.13per pick | 42cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x523d…cc1dbacked Yes | 16c | 188$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.08 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -2.7wins | -0.22per pick | 47cpaid | -67.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x253f…e642backed Yes | 15c | 114$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.1 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf95…694dbacked Yes | 19c | 104.78$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.4 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 23c | 103.66$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.03 | 1,218 | 17.8%217 W · 1,001 L | -124.0wins | -0.10per pick | 28cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe9b5…f95bbacked Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e01…757abacked Yes | 21c | 75.33$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.94 | 82 | 31.7%26 W · 56 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed Yes | 22c | 74$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.57 | 346 | 51.2%177 W · 169 L | +17.0wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +10%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x011b…e44dbacked No | 76c | 66$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.03 | 67 | 31.3%21 W · 46 L | -4.0wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe7db…feb0backed No | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 38 | 31.6%12 W · 26 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -38%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5155…b6b7backed No | 79c | 16.76$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.52 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "Christmas Gameday: Lions vs. Vikings" be the #2 global Netflix show this week? (December 30, 2025)this page
- Will "Christmas Gameday: Cowboys vs. Commanders" be the #2 global Netflix show this week? (December 30, 2025)No won
- Will "Emily in Paris: Season 5" be the #2 global Netflix show this week? (December 30, 2025)Yes won
- Will "Man Vs. Baby" be the #2 global Netflix show this week? (December 30, 2025)No won
- Will "Stranger Things: Season 5" be the #2 global Netflix show this week? (December 30, 2025)No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.