Macro Indicators · resolved market
Will the US add between 75k and 100k jobs in January?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x70ba5e3be93b05076d870f17eec57b45ab7c89aae44a6c3f37171bee5ae320fa
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Macro Indicatorsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $29,501
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $28,425
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $29,501 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 81 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Macro Indicators is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Macro Indicators | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfa39…977fbacked Yes | 1c | 2,500$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2707…0afabacked Yes | 20c | 2,500$490 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$489.99 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f62…e744backed No | 71c | 1,172$831 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$341.09 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x765f…1508backed Yes | 29c | 1,031$299 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.1 | 70 | 30%21 W · 49 L | -2.8wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd6b…68f5backed Yes | 28c | 1,000$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.11per pick | 28cpaid | -75.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 23c | 999.2$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$234.8 | 199 | 31.7%63 W · 136 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb50…7bfcbacked No | 75c | 842$634 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$207.97 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x04b9…79e0backed No | 79c | 707.35$556 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.62 | 86 | 32.6%28 W · 58 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ed8…93d4backed Yes | 16c | 701.21$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.29 | 143 | 25.2%36 W · 107 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc094…c8d4backed Yes | 22c | 625$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.75 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd13…7079backed Yes | 23c | 612.49$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.97 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -56.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8eac…db7abacked Yes | 24c | 550$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.57 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed Yes | 24c | 525.16$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.68 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1086…7b3cbacked Yes | 21c | 523.94$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.67 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -78.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8aac…0e7abacked Yes | 26c | 479$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.33 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 24cpaid | -78%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2614…4442backed Yes | 17c | 458.97$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.6 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa45c…1d10backed No | 70c | 405$282 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.44 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -54.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf3c4…0216backed No | 75c | 346.57$259 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.97 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80f8…8631backed Yes | 8c | 313$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.54 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0f3…5dbdbacked Yes | 25c | 304.3$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.79 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3fb…4a87backed Yes | 27c | 302.64$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.82 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -57.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 77c | 300$231 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.37 | 27 | 66.7%18 W · 9 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd5db…3c45backed No | 77c | 290.38$224 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.25 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 47cpaid | -56.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc0e5…293bbacked Yes | 32c | 281.18$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 15c | 255.09$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.63 | 299 | 13.7%41 W · 258 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 13cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ffc…8236backed Yes | 26c | 251.99$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.64 | 224 | 33.9%76 W · 148 L | +11.5wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +69%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x30f5…0125backed Yes | 19c | 250$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa67…6bc2backed No | 72c | 208.42$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.36 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b34…ffc3backed Yes | 20c | 205.61$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.01 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | +1.4wins | +0.10per pick | 18cpaid | +84.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…9cbebacked Yes | 7c | 202.46$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 44 | 13.6%6 W · 38 L | +3.2wins | +0.07per pick | 6cpaid | +101.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xffd2…d7aebacked Yes | 16c | 199.99$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 68 | 27.9%19 W · 49 L | -4.5wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x742c…acc0backed Yes | 22c | 182.95$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.06 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 36cpaid | -74.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 73c | 182.29$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.63 | 38 | 50%19 W · 19 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1aba…c083backed Yes | 19c | 164.75$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.27 | 133 | 38.3%51 W · 82 L | +15.6wins | +0.12per pick | 27cpaid | +66.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 72c | 163.49$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.5 | 108 | 36.1%39 W · 69 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 27c | 157.83$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.27 | 151 | 48.3%73 W · 78 L | -6.7wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc330…c0d8backed Yes | 16c | 153$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b2d…601bbacked Yes | 13c | 150$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x20a3…29dbbacked No | 70c | 143.9$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.23 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaee8…1154backed Yes | 17c | 139.39$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.7 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 18cpaid | +57.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1966…25c0backed Yes | 26c | 126.35$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.39 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 69c | 118.59$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.01 | 113 | 59.3%67 W · 46 L | +4.5wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed Yes | 11c | 116.88$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.76 | 44 | 36.4%16 W · 28 L | +3.1wins | +0.07per pick | 29cpaid | +47.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8026…2f99backed No | 79c | 109.4$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.96 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -62.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb79c…2ea7backed Yes | 29c | 109$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae75…ba07backed No | 70c | 107.1$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.03 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.21per pick | 45cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4540…dc3abacked Yes | 19c | 104.7$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2721…325bbacked Yes | 26c | 96.4$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.28 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 19cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 24c | 87.91$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.92 | 202 | 42.1%85 W · 117 L | -13.0wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ac…f23dbacked Yes | 28c | 86.81$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.72 | 53 | 30.2%16 W · 37 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4aa2…3170backed Yes | 18c | 86.32$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.54 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2160…3fefbacked Yes | 17c | 80.18$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.63 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xebb2…c640backed No | 71c | 78.87$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.87 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +36.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a1…dd34backed No | 80c | 74.63$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.93 | 42 | 54.8%23 W · 19 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 27c | 73.14$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.57 | 175 | 28%49 W · 126 L | -8.5wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x829b…0473backed Yes | 28c | 71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2fe7…03e0backed Yes | 15c | 69.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -2.4wins | -0.15per pick | 27cpaid | -53.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb349…f4a8backed Yes | 22c | 69.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38fc…33e2backed No | 75c | 69.09$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.29 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01e7…89b4backed No | 72c | 68.4$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.28 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x637d…2392backed Yes | 21c | 66.66$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b4b…b93cbacked Yes | 19c | 57.39$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.03 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 80c | 55$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.25 | 74 | 66.2%49 W · 25 L | +6.6wins | +0.09per pick | 57cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3f41…89ccbacked Yes | 31c | 55$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe2a…7243backed Yes | 30c | 54$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.23 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa912…297fbacked No | 77c | 51$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.49 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3576…09debacked No | 72c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.16per pick | 68cpaid | +28.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x72ab…1a3ebacked No | 79c | 49.43$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.51 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 29c | 49.3$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.3 | 140 | 24.3%34 W · 106 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x977b…984cbacked Yes | 31c | 48.9$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f9b…50e0backed No | 69c | 46.94$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +45.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3ba…33b9backed Yes | 37c | 40$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.81 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +1.7wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +21%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf7fe…1e42backed No | 77c | 35$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.05 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +2.0wins | +0.20per pick | 60cpaid | +60.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4169…98e9backed No | 77c | 30.25$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.05 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 74cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6283…c350backed No | 75c | 26.69$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.65 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe4d2…9d01backed No | 77c | 26.43$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.18 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +30.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d5a…5ee9backed No | 76c | 23.53$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.65 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe5…8b99backed No | 64c | 19.28$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.04 | 47 | 44.7%21 W · 26 L | -2.4wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -15%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 74c | 18.92$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.92 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4575…9628backed No | 64c | 17.26$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.22 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.9wins | +0.37per pick | 43cpaid | +122.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x904e…ffb6backed No | 71c | 16.9$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.9 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Macro Indicators and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the US add between 75k and 100k jobs in January?this page
- Will the US add between 0 and 25k jobs in January?No won
- Will the US add between 100k and 125k jobs in January?No won
- Will the US add between 25k and 50k jobs in January?No won
- Will the US add between 50k and 75k jobs in January?No won
- Will the US add more than 125k jobs in January?Yes won
- Will the US lose jobs in January?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.