Macro Indicators · resolved market
Will the US lose jobs in January?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x460d8e76b1c671efc9f3d8bb1e9cc995a0667d4833d1a084e5eaacb2a81a26fd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Macro Indicatorsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $56,522
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $50,219
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $56,522 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Macro Indicators is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Macro Indicators | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x539d…0213backed Yes | 24c | 3,788$907 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$907.02 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcaf0…08a1backed Yes | 15c | 3,572$520 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$520 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.16per pick | 27cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfa39…977fbacked Yes | 1c | 2,502$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x38e5…95e7backed Yes | 4c | 1,852$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.03 | 50 | 22%11 W · 39 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed Yes | 6c | 1,798$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.75 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2721…325bbacked Yes | 13c | 1,690$221 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220.9 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 19cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04b9…79e0backed Yes | 11c | 1,609$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.97 | 86 | 32.6%28 W · 58 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1086…7b3cbacked Yes | 14c | 1,406$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.26 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -78.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b34…ffc3backed Yes | 6c | 1,364$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.09 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | +1.4wins | +0.10per pick | 18cpaid | +84.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe4d6…fdd3backed Yes | 3c | 1,204$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.54 | 67 | 7.5%5 W · 62 L | -5.9wins | -0.09per pick | 16cpaid | -65.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfade…68cfbacked Yes | 6c | 1,141$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4372…6a96backed Yes | 15c | 1,027$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ed8…93d4backed Yes | 5c | 974.52$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.1 | 143 | 25.2%36 W · 107 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf7…2e27backed Yes | 2c | 921.18$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.44 | 39 | 2.6%1 W · 38 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 2cpaid | +166.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8aac…0e7abacked Yes | 7c | 825.37$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.91 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 24cpaid | -78%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 5c | 787.95$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.04 | 299 | 13.7%41 W · 258 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 13cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc094…c8d4backed Yes | 8c | 761.07$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.28 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd13…7079backed Yes | 29c | 566.4$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.17 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -56.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa31…1eebbacked Yes | 10c | 500$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 5c | 495.86$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.22 | 49 | 8.2%4 W · 45 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -40.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8eac…db7abacked Yes | 11c | 440$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.37 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x386d…9bb6backed Yes | 11c | 361.55$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.92 | 29 | 13.8%4 W · 25 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 13cpaid | +67.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x336f…c31ebacked Yes | 13c | 333$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.29 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a6…644bbacked Yes | 6c | 329.83$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.39 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +1.0wins | +0.11per pick | 22cpaid | +51.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f5e…5d56backed Yes | 9c | 325.38$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.03 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0ffc…8236backed Yes | 12c | 320.93$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.37 | 224 | 33.9%76 W · 148 L | +11.5wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +69%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Yes | 5c | 290.7$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.72 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | -1.3wins | -0.09per pick | 15cpaid | +173.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa45c…1d10backed Yes | 8c | 283.45$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.63 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -54.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 6c | 235.76$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.53 | 309 | 18.1%56 W · 253 L | -29.6wins | -0.10per pick | 28cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xfd42…8895backed No | 23c | 233$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$179.18 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +1.6wins | +0.15per pick | 13cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x051b…09d4backed Yes | 17c | 203.14$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.32 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaee8…1154backed Yes | 15c | 200$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 18cpaid | +57.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfce…80c7backed Yes | 10c | 180$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.41 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.9wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9741…775dbacked Yes | 17c | 163$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.77 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2139…3700backed Yes | 10c | 159.6$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2db4…410fbacked Yes | 16c | 157.94$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce49…65aabacked Yes | 8c | 151.13$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.94 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d4b…ca7abacked No | 35c | 146.9$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.01 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 21cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28ac…772cbacked Yes | 14c | 146$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.82 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa2e2…00f9backed Yes | 14c | 130.38$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5188…c804backed Yes | 15c | 128$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.68 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x44aa…d1d5backed Yes | 12c | 117.5$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.01 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.28per pick | 38cpaid | +29.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x74be…d9dbbacked Yes | 20c | 101.42$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8026…2f99backed Yes | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.9 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -62.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2160…3fefbacked Yes | 12c | 86.72$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.23 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x87ba…9fd1backed No | 60c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 10 | 90%9 W · 1 L | +2.2wins | +0.22per pick | 68cpaid | +34.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4540…dc3abacked Yes | 47c | 37.28$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.63 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Macro Indicators and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the US lose jobs in January?this page
- Will the US add between 0 and 25k jobs in January?No won
- Will the US add between 100k and 125k jobs in January?No won
- Will the US add between 25k and 50k jobs in January?No won
- Will the US add between 50k and 75k jobs in January?No won
- Will the US add between 75k and 100k jobs in January?No won
- Will the US add more than 125k jobs in January?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.