Macro Indicators · resolved market
Will the US add between 50k and 75k jobs in January?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7c1e354aaf214b1bd4ab7e93336aabdf72fe590a7766e334b903fece80435a2d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Macro Indicatorsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $56,466
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $56,880
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $56,466 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 103 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Macro Indicators is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Macro Indicators | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x78b2…24eebacked Yes | 19c | 5,688$1,081 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,080.72 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x765f…1508backed Yes | 23c | 3,060$714 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$713.89 | 70 | 30%21 W · 49 L | -2.8wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2707…0afabacked Yes | 27c | 2,500$670 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$670 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1086…7b3cbacked No | 77c | 2,025$1,562 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$463.04 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -78.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbab6…50a2backed Yes | 22c | 1,663$371 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$370.93 | 42 | 31%13 W · 29 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd5db…3c45backed Yes | 27c | 1,172$317 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$316.53 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 47cpaid | -56.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f62…e744backed Yes | 22c | 1,150$247 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$247.37 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d36…c8abbacked Yes | 40c | 1,057$420 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$420 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc0e5…293bbacked Yes | 19c | 1,045$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd6b…68f5backed Yes | 22c | 1,000$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.11per pick | 28cpaid | -75.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…5e2abacked No | 78c | 998$781 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$216.67 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -68.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed Yes | 25c | 932.55$229 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$229.46 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 28c | 861.14$242 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$241.53 | 199 | 31.7%63 W · 136 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97c2…55d6backed No | 74c | 802.65$593 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$209.59 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.24per pick | 67cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfd13…7079backed No | 75c | 791.45$594 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$196.96 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -56.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01e7…89b4backed Yes | 26c | 717.97$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.43 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1aba…c083backed Yes | 18c | 705.41$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.28 | 133 | 38.3%51 W · 82 L | +15.6wins | +0.12per pick | 27cpaid | +66.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2ed8…93d4backed Yes | 19c | 700.47$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.96 | 143 | 25.2%36 W · 107 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8aac…0e7abacked No | 76c | 590.5$447 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 24cpaid | -78%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa45c…1d10backed No | 79c | 518.8$410 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.24 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -54.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2fe7…03e0backed Yes | 21c | 517.48$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.17 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -2.4wins | -0.15per pick | 27cpaid | -53.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe23d…93a4backed Yes | 22c | 513.25$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.09per pick | 31cpaid | -18%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82a0…14b3backed No | 73c | 466.68$342 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.14 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 32cpaid | -72.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaee8…1154backed No | 80c | 443.21$355 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.64 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 18cpaid | +57.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b34…ffc3backed Yes | 22c | 406$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.95 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | +1.4wins | +0.10per pick | 18cpaid | +84.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 23c | 368.66$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.19 | 299 | 13.7%41 W · 258 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 13cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ac…f23dbacked Yes | 24c | 366.9$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.11 | 53 | 30.2%16 W · 37 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2721…325bbacked Yes | 32c | 344.83$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.85 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 19cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ef…bfc0backed Yes | 36c | 308$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.88 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b59…7155backed No | 76c | 300$228 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf3c4…0216backed No | 67c | 288.13$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.92 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e41…b875backed Yes | 22c | 277.33$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb07…f482backed Yes | 45c | 266.82$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.06 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 66c | 257.1$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.59 | 113 | 59.3%67 W · 46 L | +4.5wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 27c | 217.35$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.29 | 140 | 24.3%34 W · 106 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3fb…4a87backed No | 79c | 216.19$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.89 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -57.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 79c | 204.7$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.63 | 27 | 66.7%18 W · 9 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 25c | 199.99$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.72 | 309 | 18.1%56 W · 253 L | -29.6wins | -0.10per pick | 28cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 66c | 197.61$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.31 | 61 | 39.3%24 W · 37 L | -4.0wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 75c | 187.91$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.48 | 38 | 50%19 W · 19 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x62d2…c5cbbacked Yes | 29c | 169.7$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e73…6697backed Yes | 19c | 166$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.8 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -1.3wins | -0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38fc…33e2backed No | 77c | 163.35$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.19 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x95bd…b9bebacked Yes | 42c | 143.26$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.17 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ffc…8236backed No | 62c | 142.99$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.85 | 224 | 33.9%76 W · 148 L | +11.5wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +69%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcceb…f030backed No | 80c | 142.52$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.6 | 48 | 54.2%26 W · 22 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc094…c8d4backed Yes | 25c | 139.74$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.31 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d4b…ca7abacked No | 30c | 126.27$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.39 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 21cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x977b…984cbacked Yes | 26c | 123.95$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8a7b…782fbacked Yes | 16c | 123.64$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 61 | 26.2%16 W · 45 L | +2.9wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x742c…acc0backed No | 79c | 120.41$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.29 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 36cpaid | -74.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf64…ad49backed Yes | 42c | 116.2$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe3d…4dc6backed Yes | 25c | 110.5$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.43 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1966…25c0backed Yes | 25c | 110.15$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.54 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b24…20c9backed Yes | 33c | 101.01$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.77 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc2…0a36backed Yes | 25c | 100.2$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43cd…3884backed Yes | 40c | 100.16$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…f17abacked No | 34c | 100$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b2d…601bbacked Yes | 25c | 99.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b91…2709backed No | 72c | 99.99$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 38 | 47.4%18 W · 20 L | +5.4wins | +0.14per pick | 33cpaid | +42.1%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xebb2…c640backed No | 76c | 97.37$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.37 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +36.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8026…2f99backed No | 75c | 94$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.5 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -62.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 77c | 90$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.7 | 74 | 66.2%49 W · 25 L | +6.6wins | +0.09per pick | 57cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe85f…7f69backed Yes | 43c | 90$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 25c | 89.96$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.12 | 202 | 42.1%85 W · 117 L | -13.0wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe5…8b99backed No | 74c | 85$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.85 | 47 | 44.7%21 W · 26 L | -2.4wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -15%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1719…5ceabacked No | 73c | 81.8$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.37 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.21per pick | 71cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdabd…6adabacked Yes | 30c | 81.43$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.05 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -64%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdcc8…cd76backed No | 72c | 80.93$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.66 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf95…7865backed Yes | 17c | 80.3$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.89 | 46 | 21.7%10 W · 36 L | -3.1wins | -0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -41.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a6…644bbacked No | 63c | 80$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.6 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +1.0wins | +0.11per pick | 22cpaid | +51.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf08…cf97backed No | 74c | 78.4$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.59 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -2.2wins | -0.18per pick | 60cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3576…09debacked No | 75c | 76.69$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.93 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.16per pick | 68cpaid | +28.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb349…f4a8backed Yes | 27c | 75$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13d9…9baebacked Yes | 27c | 74.59$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x829b…0473backed Yes | 27c | 73.98$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x698a…9e3dbacked Yes | 27c | 69$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.63 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2387…abe1backed No | 65c | 65.66$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.18 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a1c…3853backed No | 77c | 64.94$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.94 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Yes | 25c | 62.72$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.83 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | -1.3wins | -0.09per pick | 15cpaid | +173.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x98da…f00fbacked No | 70c | 60$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x029c…5137backed No | 72c | 59.1$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.55 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x353f…0a6abacked Yes | 26c | 58$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.08 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 26c | 54.31$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.85 | 175 | 28%49 W · 126 L | -8.5wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x63e0…bf12backed Yes | 39c | 51.28$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa912…297fbacked No | 75c | 51$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.71 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa37d…ca94backed Yes | 27c | 49.5$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.37 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb046…1d31backed Yes | 41c | 49.15$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3094…d467backed Yes | 42c | 47.62$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb61f…d7f1backed No | 65c | 46.15$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.15 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe196…0ab5backed Yes | 26c | 45.46$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.82 | 37 | 24.3%9 W · 28 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf1c…65bebacked Yes | 26c | 38.44$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4169…98e9backed No | 74c | 31.01$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.91 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 74cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1571…1444backed Yes | 38c | 28$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.65 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x96e9…4b32backed No | 75c | 26.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.67 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 57cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e67…77adbacked Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1356…0922backed No | 78c | 24.39$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.37 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x89cd…80a2backed No | 78c | 23.04$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.07 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd72…6cc4backed No | 58c | 21.2$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.9 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 65cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x417b…18d3backed No | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.19per pick | 35cpaid | -76.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Macro Indicators and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the US add between 50k and 75k jobs in January?this page
- Will the US add between 0 and 25k jobs in January?No won
- Will the US add between 100k and 125k jobs in January?No won
- Will the US add between 25k and 50k jobs in January?No won
- Will the US add between 75k and 100k jobs in January?No won
- Will the US add more than 125k jobs in January?Yes won
- Will the US lose jobs in January?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.