TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Macro Indicators · resolved market

Will the US add between 50k and 75k jobs in January?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Macro Indicatorsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$56,466
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$56,880

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $56,466 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 103 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Macro Indicators is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Macro Indicators
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x78b2…24eebacked Yes19c5,688$1,081 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,080.7220%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x765f…1508backed Yes23c3,060$714 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$713.897030%21 W · 49 L-2.8wins-0.04per pick34cpaid-12.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2707…0afabacked Yes27c2,500$670 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67030%0 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1086…7b3cbacked No77c2,025$1,562 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$463.04616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick22cpaid-78.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbab6…50a2backed Yes22c1,663$371 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$370.934231%13 W · 29 L-1.4wins-0.03per pick34cpaid-27.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd5db…3c45backed Yes27c1,172$317 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$316.53333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.13per pick47cpaid-56.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x3f62…e744backed Yes22c1,150$247 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$247.37250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-29.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4d36…c8abbacked Yes40c1,057$420 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42010%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc0e5…293bbacked Yes19c1,045$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20030%0 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcd6b…68f5backed Yes22c1,000$220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$220616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.11per pick28cpaid-75.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x21ff…5e2abacked No78c998$781 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$216.67425%1 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick21cpaid-68.1%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xd035…f165backed Yes25c932.55$229 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$229.461315.4%2 W · 11 L0.0wins0.00per pick15cpaid+12.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes28c861.14$242 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$241.5319931.7%63 W · 136 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-11.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x97c2…55d6backed No74c802.65$593 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$209.59742.9%3 W · 4 L-1.7wins-0.24per pick67cpaid-39.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xfd13…7079backed No75c791.45$594 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$196.96633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-56.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x01e7…89b4backed Yes26c717.97$185 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$185.43250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-30.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1aba…c083backed Yes18c705.41$126 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$126.2813338.3%51 W · 82 L+15.6wins+0.12per pick27cpaid+66.3%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x2ed8…93d4backed Yes19c700.47$133 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$132.9614325.2%36 W · 107 L-2.2wins-0.02per pick27cpaid-19.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8aac…0e7abacked No76c590.5$447 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$144616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.07per pick24cpaid-78%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xa45c…1d10backed No79c518.8$410 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$109.24633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick29cpaid-54.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2fe7…03e0backed Yes21c517.48$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111.171612.5%2 W · 14 L-2.4wins-0.15per pick27cpaid-53.9%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xe23d…93a4backed Yes22c513.25$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1151040%4 W · 6 L+0.9wins+0.09per pick31cpaid-18%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x82a0…14b3backed No73c466.68$342 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$125.14520%1 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.12per pick32cpaid-72.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xaee8…1154backed No80c443.21$355 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88.64922.2%2 W · 7 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick18cpaid+57.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0b34…ffc3backed Yes22c406$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.951428.6%4 W · 10 L+1.4wins+0.10per pick18cpaid+84.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes23c368.66$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.1929913.7%41 W · 258 L+2.8wins+0.01per pick13cpaid+5.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf3ac…f23dbacked Yes24c366.9$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.115330.2%16 W · 37 L+0.2wins0.00per pick30cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2721…325bbacked Yes32c344.83$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$109.85714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick19cpaid+0.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe4ef…bfc0backed Yes36c308$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110.8810%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x0b59…7155backed No76c300$228 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$721100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.24per pick76cpaid+31.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf3c4…0216backed No67c288.13$194 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$93.92450%2 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.06per pick44cpaid-29.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0e41…b875backed Yes22c277.33$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$601225%3 W · 9 L+0.7wins+0.06per pick19cpaid+0.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbb07…f482backed Yes45c266.82$121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121.0610%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4959…a6f5backed No66c257.1$169 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88.5911359.3%67 W · 46 L+4.5wins+0.04per pick55cpaid-4.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes27c217.35$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.2914024.3%34 W · 106 L-2.1wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa3fb…4a87backed No79c216.19$171 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.89333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.08per pick42cpaid-57.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1c26…6e31backed No79c204.7$162 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.632766.7%18 W · 9 L+1.2wins+0.04per pick62cpaid+10.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xad53…ef24backed Yes25c199.99$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.7230918.1%56 W · 253 L-29.6wins-0.10per pick28cpaid-44.5%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xc602…7fc1backed No66c197.61$131 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.316139.3%24 W · 37 L-4.0wins-0.06per pick46cpaid-21.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xd6ee…37a2backed No75c187.91$141 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.483850%19 W · 19 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-8.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x62d2…c5cbbacked Yes29c169.7$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5020%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5e73…6697backed Yes19c166$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.81631.3%5 W · 11 L-1.3wins-0.08per pick39cpaid-25.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x38fc…33e2backed No77c163.35$125 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.19944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-23.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x95bd…b9bebacked Yes42c143.26$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.17450%2 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.17per pick67cpaid-32.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0ffc…8236backed No62c142.99$89 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.8522433.9%76 W · 148 L+11.5wins+0.05per pick29cpaid+69%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xcceb…f030backed No80c142.52$114 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.64854.2%26 W · 22 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc094…c8d4backed Yes25c139.74$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.3190%0 W · 9 L-1.2wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2d4b…ca7abacked No30c126.27$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88.392227.3%6 W · 16 L+1.4wins+0.06per pick21cpaid+3.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x977b…984cbacked Yes26c123.95$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3230%0 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8a7b…782fbacked Yes16c123.64$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$206126.2%16 W · 45 L+2.9wins+0.05per pick21cpaid-6.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x742c…acc0backed No79c120.41$95 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.29520%1 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.16per pick36cpaid-74.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcf64…ad49backed Yes42c116.2$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.810%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbe3d…4dc6backed Yes25c110.5$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.43425%1 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.08per pick33cpaid-40.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1966…25c0backed Yes25c110.15$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.541442.9%6 W · 8 L+0.8wins+0.05per pick37cpaid-9.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3b24…20c9backed Yes33c101.01$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.77450%2 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.08per pick58cpaid-34.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfdc2…0a36backed Yes25c100.2$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick30cpaid-27.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x43cd…3884backed Yes40c100.16$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4020%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7e80…f17abacked No34c100$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.19per pick31cpaid+47.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x0b2d…601bbacked Yes25c99.99$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2520%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x5b91…2709backed No72c99.99$72 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$283847.4%18 W · 20 L+5.4wins+0.14per pick33cpaid+42.1%equal weight59+0.09 edge/pick
0xebb2…c640backed No76c97.37$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.372100%2 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+36.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8026…2f99backed No75c94$71 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.5728.6%2 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick29cpaid-62.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x77b5…9170backed No77c90$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.77466.2%49 W · 25 L+6.6wins+0.09per pick57cpaid+7.9%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xe85f…7f69backed Yes43c90$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.310%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes25c89.96$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.1220242.1%85 W · 117 L-13.0wins-0.06per pick48cpaid-19.5%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x5fe5…8b99backed No74c85$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.854744.7%21 W · 26 L-2.4wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-15%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1719…5ceabacked No73c81.8$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.37450%2 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.21per pick71cpaid-28.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdabd…6adabacked Yes30c81.43$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.05728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.07per pick35cpaid-64%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xdcc8…cd76backed No72c80.93$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.66250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.05per pick45cpaid-30.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcf95…7865backed Yes17c80.3$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.894621.7%10 W · 36 L-3.1wins-0.07per pick29cpaid-41.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe8a6…644bbacked No63c80$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.6933.3%3 W · 6 L+1.0wins+0.11per pick22cpaid+51.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdf08…cf97backed No74c78.4$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.591241.7%5 W · 7 L-2.2wins-0.18per pick60cpaid-36.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x3576…09debacked No75c76.69$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.93683.3%5 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.16per pick68cpaid+28.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb349…f4a8backed Yes27c75$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2020%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x13d9…9baebacked Yes27c74.59$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2030%0 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x829b…0473backed Yes27c73.98$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2020%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x698a…9e3dbacked Yes27c69$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.6310%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2387…abe1backed No65c65.66$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.18450%2 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-21.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4a1c…3853backed No77c64.94$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.94250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.07per pick43cpaid-35.1%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x945a…a48cbacked Yes25c62.72$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.83156.7%1 W · 14 L-1.3wins-0.09per pick15cpaid+173.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x98da…f00fbacked No70c60$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$182100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+47.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x029c…5137backed No72c59.1$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.552100%2 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+35.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x353f…0a6abacked Yes26c58$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.0810%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes26c54.31$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.8517528%49 W · 126 L-8.5wins-0.05per pick33cpaid-33.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x63e0…bf12backed Yes39c51.28$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xa912…297fbacked No75c51$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.711361.5%8 W · 5 L+0.5wins+0.04per pick57cpaid+0.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xa37d…ca94backed Yes27c49.5$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.3710%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb046…1d31backed Yes41c49.15$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.41per pick41cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3094…d467backed Yes42c47.62$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2020%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb61f…d7f1backed No65c46.15$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.151100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.35per pick65cpaid+53.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe196…0ab5backed Yes26c45.46$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.823724.3%9 W · 28 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick26cpaid-21.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdf1c…65bebacked Yes26c38.44$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.0810%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4169…98e9backed No74c31.01$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.91475%3 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.01per pick74cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1571…1444backed Yes38c28$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.6510%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x96e9…4b32backed No75c26.67$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.67333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.24per pick57cpaid-55.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5e67…77adbacked Yes40c25$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1356…0922backed No78c24.39$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.371100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+28.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x89cd…80a2backed No78c23.04$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.071100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+28.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfd72…6cc4backed No58c21.2$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.9771.4%5 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.06per pick65cpaid+14.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x417b…18d3backed No72c20$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.6616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.1wins-0.19per pick35cpaid-76.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Macro Indicators and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.