Macro Indicators · resolved market
Will the US add more than 125k jobs in January?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1e82cb8b2b5b832d87b2bbae96a3e19e956a84c8549ea08ff894a5badd60943b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Macro Indicatorsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $63,638
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $64,404
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $63,638 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Macro Indicators is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Macro Indicators | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x04b9…79e0backed Yes | 8c | 5,278$404 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,875 | 86 | 32.6%28 W · 58 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d4b…ca7abacked No | 16c | 2,627$422 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$421.54 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 21cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4be1…3feabacked No | 4c | 1,859$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.59 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | +1.1wins | +0.08per pick | 6cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x539d…0213backed No | 1c | 1,326$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.26 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 8c | 1,291$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,187.26 | 199 | 31.7%63 W · 136 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1aba…c083backed Yes | 5c | 1,288$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,226.72 | 133 | 38.3%51 W · 82 L | +15.6wins | +0.12per pick | 27cpaid | +66.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6ba4…8c4fbacked Yes | 36c | 1,024$365 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$659.52 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.21per pick | 59cpaid | +38.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8348…de9fbacked No | 2c | 1,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2721…325bbacked Yes | 14c | 957.67$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$821.9 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 19cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaee8…1154backed Yes | 8c | 845.25$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$779.8 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 18cpaid | +57.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b34…ffc3backed Yes | 6c | 686.16$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$644.15 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | +1.4wins | +0.10per pick | 18cpaid | +84.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 8c | 653.49$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$600.23 | 299 | 13.7%41 W · 258 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 13cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed Yes | 8c | 646.93$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$594.17 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x80a4…22ccbacked Yes | 8c | 605$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$555.71 | 110 | 39.1%43 W · 67 L | +6.2wins | +0.06per pick | 33cpaid | +115.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x695c…10a1backed No | 12c | 481$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.89 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 8c | 459.78$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$424.22 | 49 | 8.2%4 W · 45 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -40.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed No | 80c | 402.3$320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$320.48 | 71 | 22.5%16 W · 55 L | -3.6wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -54.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8622…cdc9backed Yes | 11c | 267.54$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$238.96 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.89per pick | 11cpaid | +836.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x04dc…2387backed Yes | 5c | 226.93$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$214.75 | 233 | 30.5%71 W · 162 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ffc…8236backed Yes | 8c | 224.99$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$206.08 | 224 | 33.9%76 W · 148 L | +11.5wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +69%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 9c | 219.36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$199.5 | 309 | 18.1%56 W · 253 L | -29.6wins | -0.10per pick | 28cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 8c | 200$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.4 | 39 | 7.7%3 W · 36 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 6cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0781…c4ffbacked Yes | 7c | 150.92$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.37 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +1.7wins | +0.11per pick | 35cpaid | +57.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed Yes | 7c | 148.45$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.02 | 44 | 36.4%16 W · 28 L | +3.1wins | +0.07per pick | 29cpaid | +47.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd5eb…b51cbacked Yes | 13c | 148.31$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.33 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.87per pick | 13cpaid | +681.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd6b…68f5backed Yes | 67c | 144.88$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.72 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.11per pick | 28cpaid | -75.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5081…a309backed Yes | 8c | 142.01$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.09 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 6cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a92…8586backed No | 15c | 130.21$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38e5…95e7backed Yes | 9c | 130$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.7 | 50 | 22%11 W · 39 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf9f…624cbacked Yes | 9c | 117.1$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.33 | 25 | 12%3 W · 22 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93d1…a451backed Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.4 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +88.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd933…e294backed Yes | 12c | 87.99$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.75 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 19cpaid | +43.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Macro Indicators and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the US add more than 125k jobs in January?this page
- Will the US add between 0 and 25k jobs in January?No won
- Will the US add between 100k and 125k jobs in January?No won
- Will the US add between 25k and 50k jobs in January?No won
- Will the US add between 50k and 75k jobs in January?No won
- Will the US add between 75k and 100k jobs in January?No won
- Will the US lose jobs in January?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.