Earnings · resolved market
Will Apple say "Streaming" during earnings call?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x117bed58bd997cc964a9f481f1860cec43a927924258ee4eed3a830c11cc3533
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Earningsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $37,800
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $37,474
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $37,800 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 16 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Earnings is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Earnings | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfac3…3544backed Yes | 50c | 18,000$9,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,000 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4001…5381backed No | 50c | 18,000$9,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,000 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4af…eac0backed No | 48c | 231.66$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.5 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed No | 51c | 160$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.9 | 41 | 65.9%27 W · 14 L | +4.1wins | +0.10per pick | 56cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb1ab…b652backed Yes | 74c | 135.54$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.74per pick | 74cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d94…3617backed Yes | 38c | 119.36$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.36 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b60…76d5backed No | 53c | 116.99$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.56 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -44.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd738…d07ebacked Yes | 48c | 99.99$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x355e…a038backed Yes | 45c | 85.74$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.34 | 106 | 58.5%62 W · 44 L | +12.1wins | +0.11per pick | 47cpaid | +29.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x01e7…89b4backed Yes | 55c | 50$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9ec…13acbacked No | 54c | 37.02$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.02 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0816…377abacked Yes | 47c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.1 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -3.5wins | -0.23per pick | 56cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Yes | 55c | 28$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7838…7ab1backed Yes | 56c | 23.75$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b06…9076backed Yes | 51c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.1 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe0a7…4fdfbacked Yes | 52c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.26per pick | 59cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Earnings and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Apple say "Streaming" during earnings call?this page
- Will Apple say "Apple Intelligence" during earnings call?Yes won
- Will Apple say "Apple Pay" during earnings call?Yes won
- Will Apple say "China" during earnings call?Yes won
- Will Apple say "Formula 1 / F1" during earnings call?Yes won
- Will Apple say "M3" during earnings call?No won
- Will Apple say "Manufacturing" during earnings call?Yes won
- Will Apple say "Shutdown / Shut Down" during earnings call?No won
- Will Apple say "Siri" during earnings call?Yes won
- Will Apple say "The Studio" during earnings call?Yes won
- Will Apple say "Wearable" during earnings call?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.