World Politics · resolved market
Hwang Kyo-ahn in jail by November 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb513b5c2623fdf132552d0ab6d2561fbda160eff4406184642168a7401aa5d0d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $113,510
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $104,143
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $113,510 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 69 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1604…ff0ebacked Yes | 47c | 11,506$5,372 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,372 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -2.8wins | -0.14per pick | 44cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5499…0ed5backed Yes | 5c | 9,366$444 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$444.35 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe231…4e3ebacked No | 65c | 7,989$5,233 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,756.39 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9aeb…2f31backed Yes | 44c | 4,245$1,870 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,869.59 | 67 | 26.9%18 W · 49 L | +3.6wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7616…69eebacked Yes | 46c | 3,674$1,682 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,682.41 | 54 | 31.5%17 W · 37 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f2a…58afbacked No | 41c | 3,434$1,416 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,018.35 | 96 | 13.5%13 W · 83 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 14cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1281…8d51backed No | 70c | 3,391$2,385 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,006.69 | 35 | 37.1%13 W · 22 L | -3.6wins | -0.10per pick | 47cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 3c | 3,066$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.96 | 1,431 | 10.1%145 W · 1,286 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5676…b103backed No | 53c | 2,967$1,568 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,398.91 | 205 | 38%78 W · 127 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc254…3f73backed Yes | 45c | 2,685$1,199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,198.98 | 32 | 28.1%9 W · 23 L | -3.0wins | -0.09per pick | 38cpaid | -49.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7a…df1bbacked Yes | 1c | 2,200$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 179 | 21.2%38 W · 141 L | +10.6wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | +56.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf5b3…4155backed Yes | 58c | 2,145$1,237 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,237.29 | 83 | 41%34 W · 49 L | +5.9wins | +0.07per pick | 34cpaid | +18%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x110a…38a8backed Yes | 1c | 1,991$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.68 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7702…9791backed Yes | 49c | 1,932$947 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$946.79 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | -6.2wins | -0.24per pick | 51cpaid | -60.1%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked Yes | 1c | 1,500$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 166 | 16.9%28 W · 138 L | +7.6wins | +0.05per pick | 12cpaid | +111.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4d12…caa9backed No | 36c | 1,482$533 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$948.52 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac8…b09dbacked No | 50c | 1,397$695 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$702.26 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.8wins | +0.22per pick | 28cpaid | +53%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6828…1056backed No | 70c | 1,300$913 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$386.6 | 247 | 36.8%91 W · 156 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7059…9549backed Yes | 62c | 1,280$792 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$792.24 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 66cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01e7…89b4backed Yes | 44c | 1,170$520 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$520.11 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -1.6wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x46f0…fe05backed No | 55c | 1,167$642 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$525.35 | 58 | 17.2%10 W · 48 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -43.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdec2…b04abacked Yes | 41c | 1,154$471 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$470.92 | 26 | 23.1%6 W · 20 L | -3.0wins | -0.11per pick | 35cpaid | -60.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x72f4…3d96backed No | 51c | 933.35$478 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$455.64 | 43 | 34.9%15 W · 28 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x02f0…57b6backed No | 52c | 913.87$479 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$435.36 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.20per pick | 20cpaid | +184.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43b3…6193backed Yes | 20c | 848.57$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.97 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +2.1wins | +0.21per pick | 39cpaid | +61.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2bd2…2b28backed Yes | 6c | 844.22$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.55 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99b0…ca76backed No | 47c | 652.07$306 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$345.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +112.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3372…1914backed Yes | 38c | 643.05$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245.2 | 49 | 38.8%19 W · 30 L | -5.0wins | -0.10per pick | 49cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x36e8…712abacked No | 49c | 543.24$266 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$277.05 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +3.4wins | +0.43per pick | 32cpaid | +165.7%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x0b8c…a00bbacked Yes | 40c | 445.16$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.06 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked Yes | 7c | 436.64$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.36 | 62 | 29%18 W · 44 L | +3.0wins | +0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -34%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbfc3…b21fbacked Yes | 10c | 423.41$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.31 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +2.5wins | +0.23per pick | 40cpaid | +24.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xce3f…67c9backed Yes | 43c | 350$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151 | 50 | 32%16 W · 34 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeca0…e8f8backed Yes | 8c | 350$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 133 | 43.6%58 W · 75 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98d9…2c8cbacked Yes | 44c | 327.61$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.47 | 35 | 34.3%12 W · 23 L | -8.2wins | -0.23per pick | 58cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 35-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x2ccd…3055backed No | 55c | 326.44$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.9 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5567…aeedbacked No | 49c | 289.88$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.7 | 48 | 50%24 W · 24 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa97c…55b2backed Yes | 4c | 255.4$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed Yes | 43c | 228.74$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.59 | 449 | 21.2%95 W · 354 L | -21.7wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5b5c…9991backed Yes | 51c | 227.11$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.83 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.17per pick | 29cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7456…5148backed No | 55c | 225.01$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.15 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | +5.7wins | +0.22per pick | 24cpaid | +116.2%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xa8bc…33c6backed No | 64c | 223.85$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.85 | 40 | 52.5%21 W · 19 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8e8c…6657backed Yes | 48c | 200$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95 | 62 | 38.7%24 W · 38 L | +5.5wins | +0.09per pick | 30cpaid | +102.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6135…efc3backed No | 56c | 200$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ba6…af21backed Yes | 7c | 200$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.23per pick | 48cpaid | -57.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x60f7…050bbacked No | 61c | 200$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | -5.4wins | -0.18per pick | 65cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x3a4f…829ebacked No | 52c | 199.99$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +23.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8516…293dbacked Yes | 46c | 198.92$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.52 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd5b9…e44ebacked Yes | 42c | 193.39$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.62 | 67 | 41.8%28 W · 39 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2aeb…0583backed Yes | 48c | 182.59$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.2 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b44…63fbbacked Yes | 52c | 181.09$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.39 | 371 | 17.8%66 W · 305 L | -18.9wins | -0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xefdb…7358backed No | 58c | 144.33$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.69 | 39 | 35.9%14 W · 25 L | -6.3wins | -0.16per pick | 52cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x0518…5da2backed No | 70c | 105.23$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.13 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.20per pick | 55cpaid | +45.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd950…ad1bbacked No | 30c | 105$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.4 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | +1.5wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x90be…c800backed No | 23c | 100$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.5 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +1.9wins | +0.13per pick | 34cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5ecd…0787backed No | 48c | 100$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -44.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 36c | 73$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.63 | 563 | 14.6%82 W · 481 L | -39.3wins | -0.07per pick | 22cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7cd7…507cbacked No | 73c | 72$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.11 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed No | 55c | 67.78$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.25 | 76 | 46.1%35 W · 41 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x70b0…b71fbacked No | 76c | 65.48$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.48 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 71cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0974…003dbacked Yes | 47c | 62.1$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.91 | 35 | 28.6%10 W · 25 L | -2.7wins | -0.08per pick | 36cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6bca…b60abacked Yes | 48c | 60.72$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.42 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 44c | 55.26$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.07 | 990 | 17.2%170 W · 820 L | -148.8wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 34-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xeacd…8143backed No | 45c | 52.07$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.71 | 52 | 30.8%16 W · 36 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 25cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d0d…9b6ebacked Yes | 38c | 51$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.27 | 94 | 18.1%17 W · 77 L | +4.4wins | +0.05per pick | 13cpaid | +40.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8ce4…36a6backed No | 58c | 50.01$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.77 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -57.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc468…009dbacked Yes | 25c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc877…05b4backed Yes | 41c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 49 | 44.9%22 W · 27 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e89…16bfbacked Yes | 51c | 26.96$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.75 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -4.1wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.