Us Politics · resolved market
Peter Attia out by February 15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x61f6203d02dbf41a9f15040c1796227506583ba81edf1fdfe58df9bad8a8d865
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $26,674
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $27,160
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,674 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 62 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbdfa…4a1cbacked Yes | 27c | 3,167$848 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$847.74 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6307…0447backed Yes | 21c | 1,342$282 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$281.82 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb100…6461backed No | 69c | 1,288$886 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$402.45 | 178 | 50%89 W · 89 L | +8.7wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1547…d066backed No | 47c | 1,269$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$669.39 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1502…be53backed Yes | 14c | 1,254$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.56 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 31cpaid | +37.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 9c | 935.92$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.73 | 149 | 35.6%53 W · 96 L | +6.3wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3fe3…79a0backed Yes | 39c | 764.11$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab38…77febacked No | 79c | 745$589 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.45 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x247c…45a8backed Yes | 69c | 724.1$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -64.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…783dbacked No | 62c | 597.5$373 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$224.79 | 196 | 38.8%76 W · 120 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbbfb…ba4cbacked Yes | 77c | 520$401 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.77per pick | 77cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 23c | 415.96$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.43 | 69 | 30.4%21 W · 48 L | -6.9wins | -0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -46.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 9c | 411.43$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.41 | 1,136 | 6.3%72 W · 1,064 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea5a…e6aebacked No | 79c | 407$322 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.47 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed Yes | 7c | 359.8$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.77 | 122 | 7.4%9 W · 113 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -63.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefdd…8370backed Yes | 56c | 325.87$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.07 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | +1.9wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2707…0afabacked Yes | 22c | 300$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.05 | 103 | 24.3%25 W · 78 L | -3.8wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e35…1a6cbacked No | 66c | 229.08$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.64 | 71 | 67.6%48 W · 23 L | +9.6wins | +0.14per pick | 54cpaid | +41.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 5c | 227.54$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.86 | 134 | 3.7%5 W · 129 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -52.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03c8…0e01backed No | 48c | 225$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.71 | 45 | 13.3%6 W · 39 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x220b…edd5backed Yes | 5c | 220.63$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.47 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbf2…887dbacked Yes | 6c | 200$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 43 | 11.6%5 W · 38 L | +2.6wins | +0.06per pick | 6cpaid | +61.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe061…93f9backed Yes | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 57 | 10.5%6 W · 51 L | +2.9wins | +0.05per pick | 5cpaid | +75.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d9d…a002backed No | 79c | 190$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.9 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe2dd…151cbacked Yes | 8c | 188.14$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x81ba…78c4backed Yes | 9c | 182.86$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.54 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb51b…b4d9backed No | 74c | 181.57$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.57 | 70 | 51.4%36 W · 34 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4be5…c1b3backed Yes | 65c | 174.15$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.2 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.4wins | -0.69per pick | 69cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x668d…97d2backed Yes | 69c | 150$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.8 | 29 | 69%20 W · 9 L | +4.9wins | +0.17per pick | 52cpaid | +54.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xeeb1…bf68backed No | 34c | 146.05$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.05 | 106 | 30.2%32 W · 74 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +57.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcba8…11a2backed No | 79c | 140.55$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.53 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbfb0…4488backed No | 44c | 132.49$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.49 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc468…009dbacked No | 21c | 114.03$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.78 | 118 | 54.2%64 W · 54 L | +10.5wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8db9…383ebacked Yes | 63c | 104.34$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 74c | 101.07$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.52 | 48 | 47.9%23 W · 25 L | +2.5wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x34da…4656backed No | 26c | 100$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.8 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.16per pick | 39cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xce31…19c4backed Yes | 20c | 96.22$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.99 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -1.5wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x05f5…24cbbacked No | 25c | 93.48$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.11 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb50…7bfcbacked No | 60c | 85.54$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.96 | 68 | 33.8%23 W · 45 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x714f…66d5backed No | 36c | 85.44$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.49 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.9wins | +0.08per pick | 34cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd2dc…223ebacked Yes | 29c | 75.32$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.85 | 66 | 16.7%11 W · 55 L | -7.5wins | -0.11per pick | 28cpaid | -56.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 41c | 75.12$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.95 | 336 | 18.5%62 W · 274 L | -46.5wins | -0.14per pick | 32cpaid | -60%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x051b…09d4backed No | 54c | 74.2$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.2 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.9wins | +0.19per pick | 51cpaid | +30.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe6e6…8fc2backed No | 27c | 73.57$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.57 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.21per pick | 45cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf7fe…1e42backed No | 53c | 71.79$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.89 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | -2.8wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -23%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7e21…1d62backed No | 46c | 65.87$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.87 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +119.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x559f…04a4backed No | 32c | 62.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.48 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked Yes | 28c | 52.39$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.6 | 30 | 13.3%4 W · 26 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -58.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4388…0af5backed No | 72c | 51.39$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.39 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcfb5…069abacked Yes | 39c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbe0…ac46backed Yes | 75c | 44$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.75per pick | 75cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed No | 58c | 43.71$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.49 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +2.0wins | +0.11per pick | 37cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb7d2…3287backed Yes | 59c | 42.62$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd46b…5dabbacked Yes | 65c | 39.7$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | -2.5wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xff50…b446backed No | 71c | 36.54$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.42 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +39.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8975…ffe6backed No | 77c | 33.76$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.76 | 67 | 56.7%38 W · 29 L | -7.5wins | -0.11per pick | 68cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4186…ee77backed Yes | 74c | 27.03$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.3wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x01e7…89b4backed Yes | 74c | 27$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.98 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.16per pick | 47cpaid | +67.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5e01…530ebacked No | 71c | 22.54$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.54 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef8c…8550backed No | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf08…cf97backed No | 51c | 19.61$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.52 | 49 | 16.3%8 W · 41 L | -9.8wins | -0.20per pick | 36cpaid | -69.5%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x0274…f5b6backed No | 78c | 12.86$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.86 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.