TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

AI · resolved market

Apple AirTags 2 priced below $30 USD at release?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$60,837
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$55,542

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $60,837 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 126 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in AI
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x9507…7b04backed No2c6,447$113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112.851145.5%5 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick46cpaid-20.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfa39…977fbacked No1c4,145$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.11348.8%3 W · 31 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick8cpaid-88.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed No2c3,924$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.941,3636.8%93 W · 1,270 L-20.2wins-0.01per pick8cpaid-59.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x38e5…95e7backed No41c2,844$1,154 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,154.347611.8%9 W · 67 L-4.0wins-0.05per pick17cpaid-72.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0a7a…df1bbacked No1c1,750$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.521713.4%29 W · 188 L+8.1wins+0.04per pick10cpaid+2.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x04dc…2387backed No28c1,620$457 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$456.5812839.8%51 W · 77 L+4.3wins+0.03per pick37cpaid-16.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc446…0bb4backed Yes71c1,603$1,138 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$465.182100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+46.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2525…b919backed No3c1,120$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.223652.8%19 W · 17 L+5.5wins+0.15per pick38cpaid+23.9%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xd65a…be6bbacked Yes73c1,080$789 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$290.451100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+36.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1c1e…bfe7backed No1c1,019$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.277219.4%14 W · 58 L-4.1wins-0.06per pick25cpaid-63%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xeea8…6edbbacked Yes79c962.54$764 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$198.36475%3 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.20per pick55cpaid+20.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb8b0…999abacked No24c944.59$227 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22710%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5207…686bbacked Yes49c875.72$429 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$446.631546.7%7 W · 8 L+1.2wins+0.08per pick39cpaid+1.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes76c738.12$562 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$176.5545738.9%178 W · 279 L-31.3wins-0.07per pick46cpaid-3.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x4a1f…1a9fbacked No32c631.21$201 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200.946923.2%16 W · 53 L+5.0wins+0.07per pick16cpaid-7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x1a25…d5e8backed No51c577.92$292 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$292.3510%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8765…ed81backed No3c461$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.61867%13 W · 173 L-3.6wins-0.02per pick9cpaid-50.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6828…1056backed Yes71c446.1$319 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$127.5711850%59 W · 59 L+12.9wins+0.11per pick39cpaid+16.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed No24c442.43$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105.5325731.5%81 W · 176 L-14.6wins-0.06per pick37cpaid-32.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xa44d…df91backed Yes74c434.08$322 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$112.291145.5%5 W · 6 L-1.0wins-0.09per pick55cpaid+5.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2688…cb00backed Yes74c419.74$313 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$107.117536%27 W · 48 L-1.1wins-0.02per pick38cpaid-19.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfa67…4585backed No36c375$135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$135.45250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-30.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5f0a…5baebacked No45c340.84$153 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$153.07333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.09per pick42cpaid-21.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc684…2228backed No24c323$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.122055%11 W · 9 L+4.3wins+0.21per pick34cpaid+89.4%equal weight61+0.09 edge/pick
0x6e9b…1c56backed Yes55c315$174 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$141.452100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+60.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2586…f4b1backed Yes58c283.57$163 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$120.232842.9%12 W · 16 L+1.4wins+0.05per pick38cpaid+5.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe0a2…a349backed Yes71c250.05$178 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.5110338.8%40 W · 63 L+1.7wins+0.02per pick37cpaid-16.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xad86…cd10backed Yes76c224.81$172 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.911376.9%10 W · 3 L+1.3wins+0.10per pick67cpaid+13.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe079…bdeebacked No25c223$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.8120%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x283b…3a9bbacked No25c218.25$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.95113.7%7 W · 44 L-0.2wins0.00per pick14cpaid-65%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x37e4…c991backed Yes73c214.69$157 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.67520%1 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.16per pick36cpaid-72.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xba68…7ee2backed No23c213$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.3610%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2a70…3fc8backed Yes52c200$104 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$961100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.48per pick52cpaid+92.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7527…dfd9backed No25c189.62$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.4110%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbb50…7bfcbacked No8c183$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.6411841.5%49 W · 69 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-19.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No29c176.18$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.2772935.5%259 W · 470 L-57.8wins-0.08per pick43cpaid-26.5%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x581d…b2e3backed Yes49c166.32$81 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$84.851668.8%11 W · 5 L+2.3wins+0.14per pick55cpaid+85%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x7478…4003backed Yes60c165.21$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.424866.7%32 W · 16 L+4.1wins+0.08per pick58cpaid+32.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x3f4f…b4b3backed No26c160.62$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.7921125.6%54 W · 157 L-8.1wins-0.04per pick29cpaid-23.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked No22c153.46$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.7857426.8%154 W · 420 L-11.5wins-0.02per pick29cpaid-45.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8975…ffe6backed Yes55c151.5$83 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.3913971.9%100 W · 39 L+4.5wins+0.03per pick69cpaid+3.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbf03…6aeabacked Yes79c151.38$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.38633.3%2 W · 4 L-1.4wins-0.24per pick57cpaid-56.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xd743…9408backed No49c146.29$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.8320%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.44per pick44cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xab8e…3d89backed Yes70c143.55$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.551435.7%5 W · 9 L-1.2wins-0.08per pick44cpaid-39.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8635…16d1backed No25c141.42$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.0330%0 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0adc…f019backed Yes77c141.17$108 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.741100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+30.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2099…7b21backed Yes72c139.77$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.771100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+39.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8f50…1fb6backed No24c136.55$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.151936.8%7 W · 12 L-3.5wins-0.18per pick55cpaid-30.7%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xf203…2cb2backed Yes57c136$78 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.32616.7%1 W · 5 L-2.2wins-0.36per pick53cpaid-70.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xad53…ef24backed No28c131.51$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.8889317.1%153 W · 740 L-144.9wins-0.16per pick33cpaid-61.3%equal weight32-0.16 edge/pick
0x6e17…2b55backed No29c129.03$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.4220%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2200…0f2dbacked No18c129$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.222821.4%6 W · 22 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick19cpaid-59.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3461…4629backed Yes79c127.29$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.29520%1 W · 4 L-2.2wins-0.43per pick63cpaid-74.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x8f40…7598backed No40c124.97$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5010%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6380…e74fbacked No29c122$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.38425%1 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.10per pick35cpaid-67.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x8651…8a35backed No53c117.26$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.7940%0 W · 4 L-1.1wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa4bd…e8a2backed Yes58c114.85$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.214355.2%79 W · 64 L+16.6wins+0.12per pick44cpaid+24.8%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xdc1a…f7e2backed No32c100.81$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.2610%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1f85…a51bbacked No59c100.2$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.794360.5%26 W · 17 L-2.1wins-0.05per pick65cpaid-10.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x79c1…497dbacked Yes52c100$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.615950.8%30 W · 29 L+3.2wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+5.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x88bb…8d2cbacked No29c100$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$293630.6%11 W · 25 L-1.0wins-0.03per pick33cpaid-28.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1ecf…802bbacked No23c100$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23425%1 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.14per pick39cpaid-68.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0362…449ebacked Yes76c100$76 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$249447.9%45 W · 49 L-7.8wins-0.08per pick56cpaid-23.4%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x77c8…bc8cbacked Yes41c100$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59887.5%7 W · 1 L+3.4wins+0.43per pick45cpaid+119.9%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x8d59…3499backed Yes50c100$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50944.4%4 W · 5 L+0.9wins+0.10per pick35cpaid+12%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd5b9…e44ebacked No27c100$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2714250%71 W · 71 L+10.5wins+0.07per pick43cpaid+70.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xeca0…e8f8backed Yes68c100$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$328257.3%47 W · 35 L+4.0wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+6.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6349…2a82backed Yes56c99.99$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$441030%3 W · 7 L+1.4wins+0.14per pick16cpaid-10.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8e6b…8115backed Yes55c96.91$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.61333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.22per pick55cpaid-39.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe29a…c56fbacked No45c90.4$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.761050%5 W · 5 L+0.8wins+0.08per pick42cpaid-5.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xccf3…8f27backed No20c88$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.92229.1%2 W · 20 L-1.0wins-0.04per pick13cpaid-22.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe739…0c48backed No48c80$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.4742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-24.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdfaa…79a7backed No27c78.8$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.5428828.5%82 W · 206 L-5.3wins-0.02per pick30cpaid-24.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9fc9…fa88backed No41c77$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.31425%1 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.12per pick37cpaid-63.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x62e8…c7f6backed No28c72.44$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201346.2%6 W · 7 L0.0wins0.00per pick46cpaid+20.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbe0f…db07backed Yes48c70.74$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.98757.1%4 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick60cpaid-7.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7250…5468backed No31c70.21$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.752835.7%10 W · 18 L-2.5wins-0.09per pick45cpaid-27.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xac3a…8799backed No69c70$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.310%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.69per pick69cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb123…b930backed Yes73c68.93$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.931100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+37.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa314…5ba7backed Yes61c65.85$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$268551.8%44 W · 41 L-0.1wins0.00per pick52cpaid-4.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xffd6…e6b3backed Yes76c65$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.6333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.21per pick54cpaid-56.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb222…d26bbacked No25c60$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1530%0 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4a62…da45backed No36c55.56$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x7f3e…c5b5backed No27c55.28$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1510%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5fcd…c2acbacked Yes46c55$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.7250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.17per pick33cpaid+8.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xca75…b071backed Yes72c54.6$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.291428.6%4 W · 10 L-0.7wins-0.05per pick34cpaid-47.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1d68…da60backed No32c53.85$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1710%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x131d…1bb7backed No42c50.1$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21922.2%2 W · 7 L-0.5wins-0.06per pick28cpaid-33.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7df6…ac3bbacked No21c50$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.52050%10 W · 10 L+0.8wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-13.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x38f5…6824backed No28c50$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.85448.1%26 W · 28 L+8.0wins+0.15per pick33cpaid+81.5%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x51d2…0aa5backed No28c50$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1430%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x24fd…4f88backed No42c46.11$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.410%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfe86…5a99backed No45c44.8$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20450%2 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.09per pick41cpaid+3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x72ab…1a3ebacked Yes46c44.75$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.179157.1%52 W · 39 L+6.4wins+0.07per pick50cpaid+9.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xb505…92d3backed No45c44.61$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick35cpaid+46.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf939…2e92backed No49c41.14$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2030%0 W · 3 L-2.0wins-0.66per pick66cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x4116…555abacked Yes50c40$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20540%2 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.17per pick57cpaid-13.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9998…e858backed Yes35c38.89$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.42254.5%12 W · 10 L+3.5wins+0.16per pick39cpaid+70.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x7ab3…517cbacked Yes52c38.54$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.52100%2 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+85.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa59a…964fbacked Yes53c37.74$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.741100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.47per pick53cpaid+88.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.