Movies · resolved market
Will "Emily in Paris: Season 5" be the #2 global Netflix show this week? (January 6, 2026)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe64f4d0d88c9c20ba8b374ca284b9b0a9b23b4e28fd20d620c34097e347c1659
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $31,563
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $29,206
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $31,563 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 54 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x643f…e306backed Yes | 2c | 5,016$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.16 | 33 | 33.3%11 W · 22 L | +3.9wins | +0.12per pick | 22cpaid | -37%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xefac…c9a1backed Yes | 15c | 1,613$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.67 | 482 | 36.3%175 W · 307 L | +8.4wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc684…2228backed Yes | 11c | 1,229$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.16 | 184 | 44%81 W · 103 L | +7.4wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0b13…5957backed Yes | 3c | 1,200$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.12 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04dc…2387backed Yes | 14c | 1,028$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.39 | 125 | 39.2%49 W · 76 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12d3…53c1backed Yes | 10c | 1,020$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | +3.0wins | +0.14per pick | 24cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf42f…a6a7backed Yes | 5c | 812.12$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.27 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -2.6wins | -0.16per pick | 45cpaid | -56.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 8c | 772.85$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.29 | 1,394 | 8%111 W · 1,283 L | -47.9wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2375…691fbacked Yes | 17c | 727$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.99 | 246 | 34.6%85 W · 161 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x37b4…d5e5backed Yes | 25c | 672.7$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.23 | 27 | 14.8%4 W · 23 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 17cpaid | +2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed Yes | 16c | 566.21$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.4 | 346 | 51.2%177 W · 169 L | +17.0wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +10%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x82ed…b788backed Yes | 4c | 540.07$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.29 | 30 | 16.7%5 W · 25 L | -4.0wins | -0.13per pick | 30cpaid | -75.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6828…1056backed Yes | 3c | 500$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 80 | 40%32 W · 48 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x12c2…aa71backed Yes | 47c | 485$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$227.95 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | -3.2wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x58e1…a5cdbacked Yes | 21c | 468$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.28 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -1.7wins | -0.10per pick | 42cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6c7d…d6ebbacked No | 68c | 444.03$302 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.82 | 331 | 23.9%79 W · 252 L | +12.0wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | -15%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Yes | 5c | 405.15$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.96 | 170 | 10%17 W · 153 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed Yes | 11c | 361.76$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.68 | 24 | 12.5%3 W · 21 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd22…9ef1backed Yes | 11c | 319$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.09 | 29 | 55.2%16 W · 13 L | +3.7wins | +0.13per pick | 43cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3a…9e14backed Yes | 11c | 299.88$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.99 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb1e1…d9c1backed No | 80c | 266$213 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.2 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | +4.3wins | +0.28per pick | 45cpaid | +86.7%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x1ea6…32d9backed No | 53c | 265$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.55 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | -2.7wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x71d2…e109backed No | 79c | 262$207 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.02 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | +3.0wins | +0.09per pick | 44cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6e46…e68dbacked Yes | 21c | 262$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.02 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2abd…74ebbacked Yes | 16c | 258$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.28 | 28 | 28.6%8 W · 20 L | -3.0wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -53%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6e36…2479backed Yes | 47c | 228$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.16 | 32 | 34.4%11 W · 21 L | -2.5wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf738…56bdbacked No | 53c | 228$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.16 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b71…f1d9backed No | 53c | 220$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.4 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +2.2wins | +0.13per pick | 46cpaid | +60.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9720…f4d1backed No | 80c | 196$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.2 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 67c | 177.39$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.58 | 1,218 | 17.8%217 W · 1,001 L | -124.0wins | -0.10per pick | 28cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x3f1f…feaebacked Yes | 9c | 173.54$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.38 | 23 | 13%3 W · 20 L | -2.5wins | -0.11per pick | 24cpaid | -55.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x38fc…c078backed No | 79c | 151.95$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.61 | 32 | 56.3%18 W · 14 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9dfb…e887backed Yes | 20c | 150.01$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.73 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -1.4wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 7c | 150$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 278 | 1.8%5 W · 273 L | -9.2wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -72.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 11c | 131.4$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.45 | 484 | 14%68 W · 416 L | -39.3wins | -0.08per pick | 22cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x401e…6fc9backed Yes | 22c | 129.97$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.59 | 175 | 40%70 W · 105 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x07e3…2899backed Yes | 14c | 128.08$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.21 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8975…ffe6backed No | 79c | 102.16$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.63 | 206 | 68.9%142 W · 64 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd493…7f04backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 93 | 4.3%4 W · 89 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9dc2…0727backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 67 | 4.5%3 W · 64 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 204 | 2.9%6 W · 198 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -51.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x59c2…de58backed Yes | 44c | 81.2$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c2a…22c4backed Yes | 22c | 68$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd40d…b2fabacked No | 79c | 63$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.23 | 39 | 46.2%18 W · 21 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6dbc…18a0backed No | 80c | 62.5$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Yes | 25c | 60$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 237 | 51.9%123 W · 114 L | +16.9wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…4441backed Yes | 21c | 57$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.97 | 28 | 28.6%8 W · 20 L | -3.7wins | -0.13per pick | 42cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf2e8…e923backed Yes | 49c | 55$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.95 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +1.8wins | +0.13per pick | 59cpaid | +25%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x739c…a146backed Yes | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01e7…89b4backed No | 59c | 40$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.4 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc161…7f9abacked No | 79c | 40$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae91…0f69backed Yes | 27c | 38.8$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.67 | 86 | 58.1%50 W · 36 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6684…95d1backed No | 74c | 33.9$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.9 | 11 | 100%11 W · 0 L | +3.9wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +62.6%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x215a…254cbacked No | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 101 | 39.6%40 W · 61 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "Emily in Paris: Season 5" be the #2 global Netflix show this week? (January 6, 2026)this page
- Will "Ricky Gervais: Mortality" be the #2 global Netflix show this week? (January 6, 2026)No won
- Will "Run Away" be the #2 global Netflix show this week? (January 6, 2026)Yes won
- Will "Stranger Things: Season 5" be the #2 global Netflix show this week? (January 6, 2026)No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.