Movies · resolved market
Will "Run Away" be the #2 global Netflix show this week? (January 6, 2026)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x85a3676befbec76a3eaf9798006fbbabd413fb943aa3ab77e473f4b6bda8cb0d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $29,122
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $31,862
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $29,122 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1a6a…449dbacked No | 4c | 1,527$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.53 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82ed…b788backed No | 4c | 1,032$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.43 | 30 | 16.7%5 W · 25 L | -4.0wins | -0.13per pick | 30cpaid | -75.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xefac…c9a1backed No | 10c | 984.48$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.45 | 482 | 36.3%175 W · 307 L | +8.4wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa53e…f9f6backed No | 9c | 772.84$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.25 | 36 | 36.1%13 W · 23 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x451a…a0c9backed Yes | 71c | 678$481 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$196.62 | 36 | 41.7%15 W · 21 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x97f3…0ebabacked Yes | 80c | 564.03$450 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.03 | 58 | 39.7%23 W · 35 L | -4.7wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x79c1…497dbacked No | 12c | 552.1$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.98 | 131 | 30.5%40 W · 91 L | -7.2wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xccf7…db17backed No | 8c | 520.04$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b4b…b93cbacked No | 3c | 500$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 58 | 31%18 W · 40 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9ab…d0a0backed No | 29c | 358$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.82 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | -2.1wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -42.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9b47…9930backed No | 29c | 317$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.93 | 26 | 65.4%17 W · 9 L | +5.6wins | +0.21per pick | 44cpaid | +44.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xb68f…6fd2backed No | 44c | 298.46$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.32 | 58 | 37.9%22 W · 36 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x72ab…1a3ebacked No | 17c | 259.29$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.71 | 136 | 50%68 W · 68 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -23%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 15c | 230.99$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.1 | 1,394 | 8%111 W · 1,283 L | -47.9wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x02ee…5adebacked No | 29c | 223$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.67 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea25…d3aabacked Yes | 71c | 220$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.8 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | +2.0wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +12%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6c7d…d6ebbacked Yes | 69c | 217$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.72 | 331 | 23.9%79 W · 252 L | +12.0wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | -15%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 17c | 208.7$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.35 | 870 | 33.3%290 W · 580 L | -77.0wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xde5e…3a94backed Yes | 66c | 204.61$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.84 | 38 | 47.4%18 W · 20 L | +4.3wins | +0.11per pick | 36cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x945c…a489backed Yes | 67c | 196.4$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.12 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.13per pick | 33cpaid | -70.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked No | 10c | 191.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.81 | 170 | 10%17 W · 153 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed No | 10c | 150$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 278 | 1.8%5 W · 273 L | -9.2wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -72.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa81e…03dcbacked No | 25c | 131.54$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.09 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…4d2dbacked No | 10c | 129.94$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.69 | 90 | 1.1%1 W · 89 L | -4.3wins | -0.05per pick | 6cpaid | -51.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x38fc…c078backed Yes | 79c | 124.19$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.35 | 32 | 56.3%18 W · 14 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f1f…feaebacked No | 9c | 118.64$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.81 | 23 | 13%3 W · 20 L | -2.5wins | -0.11per pick | 24cpaid | -55.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 13c | 111.15$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.45 | 484 | 14%68 W · 416 L | -39.3wins | -0.08per pick | 22cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa237…d59abacked Yes | 53c | 101.87$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.78 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.19per pick | 67cpaid | +32.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 13c | 101.54$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.29 | 672 | 32%215 W · 457 L | +14.4wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -30%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c66…31e3backed No | 48c | 100$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8fb…3fadbacked No | 28c | 100$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 21c | 100$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.36 | 1,218 | 17.8%217 W · 1,001 L | -124.0wins | -0.10per pick | 28cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 14c | 89.98$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.48 | 208 | 50%104 W · 104 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a31…f2f0backed No | 14c | 80.4$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 79 | 45.6%36 W · 43 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6837…15e1backed Yes | 69c | 80.11$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.83 | 116 | 37.1%43 W · 73 L | +14.1wins | +0.12per pick | 25cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6dbc…18a0backed Yes | 76c | 66.05$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.05 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x45ef…143bbacked Yes | 76c | 39.47$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.47 | 49 | 55.1%27 W · 22 L | +2.6wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +16%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc161…7f9abacked Yes | 76c | 34$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.27 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01e7…89b4backed Yes | 62c | 28$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.64 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03d0…d647backed Yes | 72c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 61 | 52.5%32 W · 29 L | +2.9wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8975…ffe6backed Yes | 68c | 24.11$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.82 | 206 | 68.9%142 W · 64 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae91…0f69backed Yes | 78c | 23.09$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.17 | 86 | 58.1%50 W · 36 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8684…57bdbacked Yes | 77c | 20.01$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x895c…ead8backed Yes | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.63 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "Run Away" be the #2 global Netflix show this week? (January 6, 2026)this page
- Will "Emily in Paris: Season 5" be the #2 global Netflix show this week? (January 6, 2026)No won
- Will "Ricky Gervais: Mortality" be the #2 global Netflix show this week? (January 6, 2026)No won
- Will "Stranger Things: Season 5" be the #2 global Netflix show this week? (January 6, 2026)No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.