AI · resolved market
Grok 5 released by December 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc274a9b32eb25394b720734b045820b7109e3ddd0de16ba577b10225fe924146
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $109,217
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $102,407
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $109,217 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 153 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x07d4…8991backed Yes | 5c | 8,100$431 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$431.49 | 629 | 1.3%8 W · 621 L | -7.1wins | -0.01per pick | 2cpaid | -88.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf78f…f119backed Yes | 17c | 7,464$1,280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,280.48 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa24a…9211backed Yes | 5c | 5,000$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 4c | 2,938$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.41 | 1,363 | 6.8%93 W · 1,270 L | -20.2wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e84…ef69backed Yes | 1c | 2,181$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.37 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -41%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd41…6debbacked Yes | 1c | 2,062$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.37 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x09e6…24a1backed No | 58c | 1,968$1,139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$829.32 | 109 | 33.9%37 W · 72 L | +5.0wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7799…ad20backed Yes | 24c | 1,851$439 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$439.12 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x50b2…c94abacked No | 58c | 1,549$891 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$657.71 | 50 | 60%30 W · 20 L | +3.3wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked Yes | 4c | 1,403$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.1 | 263 | 12.9%34 W · 229 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28ee…27cfbacked Yes | 1c | 1,358$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.71 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7a…df1bbacked Yes | 6c | 1,250$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 217 | 13.4%29 W · 188 L | +8.1wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x96e0…b648backed No | 44c | 1,088$479 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$609.12 | 43 | 16.3%7 W · 36 L | -2.8wins | -0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -61.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0702…d5f9backed No | 76c | 1,055$801 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$254.08 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | +2.5wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x60b2…3ccebacked Yes | 73c | 1,000$730 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$730 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +96.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc406…07d9backed Yes | 62c | 985.76$615 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$615.15 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x600f…4392backed Yes | 9c | 928.9$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x263d…d077backed No | 54c | 873.72$473 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$400.92 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf3d4…84a1backed Yes | 40c | 824.68$332 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$331.82 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe0a2…a349backed Yes | 49c | 801.32$390 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$389.68 | 103 | 38.8%40 W · 63 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c03…1592backed Yes | 52c | 800$418 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$418 | 22 | 4.5%1 W · 21 L | -3.6wins | -0.16per pick | 21cpaid | -90.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcd96…cbdcbacked Yes | 33c | 782.66$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$255.45 | 68 | 33.8%23 W · 45 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +34.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb1b…a11dbacked No | 29c | 720.9$212 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$509.33 | 90 | 41.1%37 W · 53 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x56f9…3e49backed Yes | 62c | 714.36$440 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$440 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.62per pick | 62cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58ac…cd20backed Yes | 70c | 714.32$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.70per pick | 70cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8341…de89backed No | 22c | 700.21$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$544.01 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x60aa…0df0backed Yes | 2c | 677.37$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d84…1344backed No | 39c | 666.78$258 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$408.85 | 72 | 22.2%16 W · 56 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -26%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0562…9d66backed No | 41c | 571.01$236 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$334.73 | 75 | 40%30 W · 45 L | +5.6wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x01e7…89b4backed Yes | 35c | 561.51$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.12 | 47 | 29.8%14 W · 33 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -32%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28b2…eb4fbacked No | 78c | 551.09$432 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.44 | 143 | 39.2%56 W · 87 L | +5.5wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb7…ea3cbacked No | 73c | 511.65$375 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.65 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +77.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e7c…596cbacked No | 37c | 503.21$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$318.3 | 30 | 30%9 W · 21 L | +2.0wins | +0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8528…d446backed No | 40c | 500$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300.21 | 38 | 28.9%11 W · 27 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc14…2e9bbacked No | 70c | 491.83$345 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.48 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -27%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb9a4…996dbacked Yes | 40c | 489.88$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.7 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -2.0wins | -0.12per pick | 50cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7272…a67dbacked Yes | 40c | 400$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b97…7b54backed Yes | 27c | 396.32$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.94 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -2.0wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa82a…be8cbacked Yes | 3c | 392.05$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.65 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x49b5…e5eebacked Yes | 27c | 391.51$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.3 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…783dbacked Yes | 4c | 385$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 126 | 36.5%46 W · 80 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1453…a680backed Yes | 60c | 380$227 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$227 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.12per pick | 55cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8ef2…86f8backed Yes | 61c | 360.04$218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$218 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1414…148dbacked Yes | 46c | 349.68$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x81a0…a25dbacked Yes | 30c | 335.01$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b2e…b2fabacked No | 61c | 334.09$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.3 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.12per pick | 68cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4575…9099backed Yes | 7c | 319.34$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.03 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -1.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e8b…1ea1backed Yes | 65c | 317.96$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206.67 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.15per pick | 29cpaid | -75%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe29e…ae4dbacked No | 79c | 316.25$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.25 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 16c | 310.04$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.44 | 479 | 38%182 W · 297 L | -11.3wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b6d…4747backed Yes | 74c | 300.53$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$222 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf890…a010backed Yes | 57c | 300$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.16per pick | 41cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5903…f218backed Yes | 38c | 287.87$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.35 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | +1.7wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | +15%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e64…8fdfbacked Yes | 66c | 287$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.42 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4f5e…1773backed No | 79c | 285.69$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.05 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +2.0wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +111.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcbd7…51fcbacked Yes | 39c | 281.12$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.26 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4b0b…3f0bbacked Yes | 50c | 278.95$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.45 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -14%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdc3…a71fbacked No | 48c | 271.45$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.03 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | +2.2wins | +0.10per pick | 31cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb52f…fbfdbacked No | 37c | 267.78$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.78 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +2.5wins | +0.21per pick | 46cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2688…cb00backed No | 35c | 267.33$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.55 | 75 | 36%27 W · 48 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x467c…b348backed No | 57c | 262.14$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.66 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac45…20c5backed No | 31c | 255.99$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.77 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x245c…2486backed Yes | 36c | 255.87$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.3 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56a3…8790backed No | 39c | 225.64$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.64 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.35per pick | 40cpaid | +67.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcc14…433ebacked No | 70c | 218.34$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.99 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 60cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x74b1…e7dabacked No | 71c | 212.01$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.01 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +41.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73dc…8d32backed No | 62c | 201.88$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.16 | 43 | 48.8%21 W · 22 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a97…4800backed Yes | 70c | 201$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.94 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3b93…9ec4backed No | 22c | 200$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156 | 60 | 53.3%32 W · 28 L | +8.1wins | +0.13per pick | 40cpaid | +36.2%equal weight | 61+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x75e7…9080backed Yes | 78c | 200$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156 | 104 | 26.9%28 W · 76 L | +5.3wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa59c…bb62backed Yes | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x67c6…a7eebacked Yes | 8c | 200$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb04a…2fadbacked Yes | 9c | 173$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.57 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd374…5544backed Yes | 58c | 172.95$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a2a…e921backed No | 36c | 168.31$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.31 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +1.6wins | +0.09per pick | 36cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed Yes | 34c | 155.52$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.29 | 251 | 22.7%57 W · 194 L | -9.4wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x338e…0945backed Yes | 59c | 152.45$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.95 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd5a8…f1e0backed Yes | 26c | 152$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x210c…2edabacked No | 61c | 151.6$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.23 | 37 | 67.6%25 W · 12 L | +3.7wins | +0.10per pick | 58cpaid | +31.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb72c…653ebacked Yes | 40c | 150.05$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | -3.6wins | -0.20per pick | 37cpaid | -71.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Yes | 66c | 149.99$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -2.6wins | -0.22per pick | 47cpaid | -56.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed No | 29c | 121.27$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.19 | 301 | 27.2%82 W · 219 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3896…ece6backed No | 33c | 121.21$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.21 | 42 | 47.6%20 W · 22 L | +4.5wins | +0.11per pick | 37cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4534…801fbacked Yes | 21c | 120$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.6 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa557…d95cbacked No | 73c | 117.57$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.14 | 44 | 63.6%28 W · 16 L | +3.9wins | +0.09per pick | 55cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x46d2…564ebacked Yes | 54c | 112.04$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87ff…83f1backed Yes | 41c | 110$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.6 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed No | 33c | 105.65$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.88 | 50 | 12%6 W · 44 L | -2.9wins | -0.06per pick | 18cpaid | -71.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3126…ccbbbacked Yes | 38c | 105.43$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbdf7…65d9backed Yes | 28c | 105.41$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.61 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 32c | 103$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.75 | 731 | 35.6%260 W · 471 L | -57.8wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5b75…433bbacked Yes | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | -4.0wins | -0.13per pick | 48cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc21c…99dcbacked Yes | 17c | 100$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.12per pick | 21cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b7a…4817backed Yes | 75c | 100$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -18%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64e7…fc5bbacked Yes | 61c | 100$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30f9…fbfcbacked No | 33c | 100$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67 | 243 | 15.2%37 W · 206 L | +7.0wins | +0.03per pick | 12cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa6f…7e67backed Yes | 65c | 98.88$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.38 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | -4.0wins | -0.15per pick | 61cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x497b…aba5backed Yes | 74c | 94.05$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.87 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 27c | 90.88$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.76 | 574 | 26.8%154 W · 420 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc77…c035backed Yes | 22c | 87.63$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.29 | 45 | 53.3%24 W · 21 L | +3.2wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Grok 5 released by December 31?this page
- Grok 5 released by June 30, 2026?No won
- Grok 5 released by March 31, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.