AI · resolved market
Grok 5 released by June 30, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0c61adaf2d0c903081573c305892a84c12701330258d912252eef226faa5c50f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $66,334
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $58,177
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $66,334 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 124 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc326…1db1backed No | 77c | 12,962$9,934 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,028.53 | 258 | 37.6%97 W · 161 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc76…0ad0backed No | 79c | 8,531$6,713 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,817.78 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c02…e658backed Yes | 21c | 6,547$1,406 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,405.54 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf81…697dbacked Yes | 9c | 2,253$209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208.65 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Yes | 26c | 1,892$492 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$491.59 | 60 | 41.7%25 W · 35 L | +3.7wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa5e3…4d7ebacked Yes | 25c | 1,795$452 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$452.31 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04dc…2387backed Yes | 58c | 1,251$720 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$720.17 | 128 | 39.8%51 W · 77 L | +4.3wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8296…fecabacked No | 33c | 1,034$337 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$697.59 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | +2.6wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9cd7…9c85backed Yes | 66c | 999.95$658 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$657.97 | 42 | 35.7%15 W · 27 L | -2.8wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x61a8…c588backed Yes | 16c | 911.76$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.26 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 30c | 878.84$268 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$267.95 | 294 | 30.6%90 W · 204 L | -7.1wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec3a…8ce9backed Yes | 13c | 862.07$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5348…e4ffbacked Yes | 10c | 750$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 16 | 0%0 W · 16 L | -1.5wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Yes | 9c | 736$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.34 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -19%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…9cbebacked Yes | 9c | 733.85$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.48 | 267 | 4.9%13 W · 254 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49bb…aaf9backed Yes | 9c | 700$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.53 | 37 | 21.6%8 W · 29 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1718…8ceebacked Yes | 13c | 577.08$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x124a…3741backed No | 78c | 568.66$445 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.76 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x51f2…38efbacked Yes | 12c | 548.6$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.57 | 70 | 38.6%27 W · 43 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6358…cc23backed Yes | 18c | 532.89$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.95 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f3b…1d77backed Yes | 68c | 500$340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$340 | 67 | 16.4%11 W · 56 L | -4.6wins | -0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -51.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed Yes | 30c | 438.77$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.64 | 50 | 12%6 W · 44 L | -2.9wins | -0.06per pick | 18cpaid | -71.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7b75…3fd1backed No | 33c | 418.69$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$282.22 | 120 | 33.3%40 W · 80 L | +6.5wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f8…5bf1backed Yes | 35c | 414.12$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.71 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e07…f10ebacked Yes | 16c | 413.65$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.39 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x819f…f200backed Yes | 44c | 407$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.19 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x70e0…6821backed Yes | 12c | 404.57$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +2.2wins | +0.31per pick | 40cpaid | +153.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 17c | 402.37$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.32 | 479 | 38%182 W · 297 L | -11.3wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd097…78f9backed Yes | 13c | 384.25$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa32a…50d1backed Yes | 14c | 345.98$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0711…f03cbacked Yes | 28c | 334.99$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.45 | 193 | 37.3%72 W · 121 L | +9.0wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd8e3…c41ebacked Yes | 42c | 331.71$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed Yes | 12c | 328.37$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.04 | 288 | 26.7%77 W · 211 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x643c…3fc2backed Yes | 8c | 320.99$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.83 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +1.2wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb171…a647backed Yes | 17c | 290.31$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -2.4wins | -0.20per pick | 37cpaid | -66.4%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xba38…f74dbacked No | 33c | 289.01$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194.98 | 35 | 37.1%13 W · 22 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 66c | 285.2$189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.63 | 86 | 50%43 W · 43 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -12%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xacd6…0841backed Yes | 16c | 258.95$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.19 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 57c | 242.07$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.07 | 146 | 43.8%64 W · 82 L | -5.2wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf5fd…3348backed Yes | 12c | 220.26$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.43 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +2.6wins | +0.37per pick | 20cpaid | +279.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2941…dad2backed Yes | 22c | 216.32$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf278…a69dbacked Yes | 41c | 213.47$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.99 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 73c | 202.85$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.67 | 137 | 38%52 W · 85 L | -6.8wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -25%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd816…6c0fbacked Yes | 7c | 200$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a77…f859backed Yes | 11c | 200$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcdb2…590abacked No | 34c | 198$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.44 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +2.3wins | +0.18per pick | 36cpaid | +29.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 53c | 187.82$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.92 | 205 | 44.4%91 W · 114 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8952…1f26backed No | 35c | 185.71$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.71 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.6wins | +0.39per pick | 36cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xac2d…a9c4backed Yes | 21c | 173.95$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.53 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -3.8wins | -0.25per pick | 45cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 39-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 80c | 166.99$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.21 | 731 | 35.6%260 W · 471 L | -57.8wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed Yes | 12c | 161.69$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.27 | 94 | 44.7%42 W · 52 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c50…22fdbacked No | 37c | 160$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.8 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a80…729cbacked No | 18c | 156$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.53 | 58 | 13.8%8 W · 50 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49b6…d152backed Yes | 70c | 152$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.4 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.17per pick | 57cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa848…8a1fbacked Yes | 14c | 150$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e26…2020backed Yes | 36c | 150$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x78a1…e6bdbacked Yes | 36c | 150$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.7wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x127b…d23cbacked Yes | 21c | 149.12$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb711…1a27backed Yes | 17c | 147.87$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb7e1…8c19backed No | 34c | 147.06$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.06 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +3.4wins | +0.57per pick | 26cpaid | +419.7%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xa211…657fbacked Yes | 13c | 145$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked Yes | 21c | 141.42$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.13 | 256 | 32.8%84 W · 172 L | -24.1wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x724d…8deabacked Yes | 9c | 141$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.72 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +1.0wins | +0.11per pick | 11cpaid | +75.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ec1…2bc2backed No | 30c | 139.66$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.34 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | -2.7wins | -0.09per pick | 45cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6f08…54d3backed No | 76c | 139.11$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.39 | 53 | 41.5%22 W · 31 L | -2.6wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc353…fa0bbacked Yes | 34c | 138.97$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.25 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -48.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2afd…deb4backed Yes | 24c | 138.08$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.06 | 44 | 25%11 W · 33 L | -2.7wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2106…fa73backed Yes | 8c | 125$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29ef…dddabacked Yes | 35c | 125$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.25 | 101 | 44.6%45 W · 56 L | +3.1wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca52…0cdfbacked No | 37c | 123.51$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.81 | 113 | 46%52 W · 61 L | +11.1wins | +0.10per pick | 36cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…c229backed Yes | 17c | 116.95$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x789a…1ddabacked Yes | 70c | 114.01$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.98 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28ca…5d19backed Yes | 10c | 114$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.96 | 42 | 28.6%12 W · 30 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad42…c918backed No | 41c | 110$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.16 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.14per pick | 68cpaid | +24.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3849…2cebbacked Yes | 14c | 107.14$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3d8…8f7cbacked Yes | 30c | 107$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3560…11f0backed Yes | 21c | 105$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.05 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 18c | 100.16$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.92 | 574 | 26.8%154 W · 420 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f3e…5bc9backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.11per pick | 34cpaid | +59.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b76…9823backed Yes | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x755d…6accbacked Yes | 18c | 100$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 55 | 21.8%12 W · 43 L | -3.2wins | -0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -47.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf7b3…ab43backed Yes | 10c | 99.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.29 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99ba…6391backed Yes | 16c | 95.3$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 60 | 33.3%20 W · 40 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33db…417abacked No | 55c | 88.38$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.77 | 190 | 40.5%77 W · 113 L | +14.4wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x26e7…f97bbacked Yes | 15c | 84.81$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.36 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf040…3a86backed No | 70c | 81.6$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.71 | 22 | 18.2%4 W · 18 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | -67.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x619b…7000backed Yes | 16c | 81$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.96 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1560…1279backed Yes | 31c | 80.7$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.88 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe470…1985backed Yes | 25c | 79.97$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1029…9b36backed Yes | 22c | 79.53$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.56 | 41 | 39%16 W · 25 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4bea…0b1abacked Yes | 66c | 75.72$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x65b8…5f6ebacked Yes | 16c | 72.82$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb50…7bfcbacked No | 19c | 72.77$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.95 | 118 | 41.5%49 W · 69 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x53a3…e5afbacked No | 79c | 72.33$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.35 | 34 | 38.2%13 W · 21 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x695c…10a1backed Yes | 35c | 71$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.85 | 52 | 21.2%11 W · 41 L | -2.7wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7fd0…30f4backed No | 35c | 67.31$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.01 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 12cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6f7…1f33backed Yes | 16c | 67.17$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.61 | 35 | 40%14 W · 21 L | +1.9wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6c30…a7fcbacked Yes | 47c | 62.14$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.4 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -1.9wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcdc3…a71fbacked No | 30c | 60$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | +2.2wins | +0.10per pick | 31cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6643…0109backed Yes | 25c | 59.05$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Grok 5 released by June 30, 2026?this page
- Grok 5 released by December 31?No won
- Grok 5 released by March 31, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.