World Politics · resolved market
Kang Sun-woo in jail by March 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xaea6b168b66cc6dfda7435deffc1602d23436e0c9892882c91b84749cd99f1cc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $56,919
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $56,919 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 78 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1604…ff0ebacked Yes | 78c | 15,152$11,850 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,301.52 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -2.8wins | -0.14per pick | 44cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 1c | 5,112$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.53 | 1,431 | 10.1%145 W · 1,286 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9aeb…2f31backed No | 15c | 4,540$660 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$660.28 | 67 | 26.9%18 W · 49 L | +3.6wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbc7b…b99fbacked No | 30c | 3,080$936 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$935.58 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | +113.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf5b3…4155backed No | 10c | 3,000$298 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$297.59 | 83 | 41%34 W · 49 L | +5.9wins | +0.07per pick | 34cpaid | +18%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x72f4…3d96backed No | 12c | 2,215$265 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$265.3 | 43 | 34.9%15 W · 28 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x066e…6f56backed No | 14c | 2,031$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280.18 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf5…95adbacked No | 11c | 1,961$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$213.45 | 59 | 33.9%20 W · 39 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x60f7…050bbacked Yes | 80c | 1,867$1,489 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$378.05 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | -5.4wins | -0.18per pick | 65cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc630…fbe4backed No | 29c | 1,619$473 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$473.39 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8db1…8269backed Yes | 34c | 1,599$547 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,051.64 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | -2.5wins | -0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7d1f…d7cebacked No | 33c | 1,520$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fb5…cabdbacked No | 29c | 1,432$412 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$412.45 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 42cpaid | -49.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f2a…58afbacked No | 7c | 1,336$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.66 | 96 | 13.5%13 W · 83 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 14cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked No | 1c | 1,250$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 166 | 16.9%28 W · 138 L | +7.6wins | +0.05per pick | 12cpaid | +111.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed No | 4c | 1,076$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.15 | 150 | 14%21 W · 129 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5676…b103backed No | 66c | 1,000$660 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$660 | 205 | 38%78 W · 127 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcad4…1a4cbacked Yes | 74c | 997.78$741 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$256.63 | 83 | 30.1%25 W · 58 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d0d…9b6ebacked No | 14c | 866$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.88 | 94 | 18.1%17 W · 77 L | +4.4wins | +0.05per pick | 13cpaid | +40.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9e5f…8a41backed No | 27c | 777.66$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.82 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -59.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d92…3239backed No | 20c | 774.72$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.84 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 21cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75d1…7a5fbacked No | 10c | 544.67$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.56 | 156 | 50%78 W · 78 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec59…8557backed No | 18c | 525.41$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.57 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.5wins | -0.17per pick | 28cpaid | -84.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1bc6…c936backed Yes | 69c | 477.63$331 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.32 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | +4.2wins | +0.14per pick | 34cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked No | 13c | 422.72$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.29 | 58 | 17.2%10 W · 48 L | -4.4wins | -0.08per pick | 25cpaid | -61%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf18d…9863backed No | 9c | 399.99$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.64 | 78 | 16.7%13 W · 65 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6cb9…f414backed No | 68c | 372.69$253 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$253.43 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa462…263bbacked No | 23c | 372.63$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | +390%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x185f…3649backed No | 6c | 357.14$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2aeb…0583backed No | 24c | 340$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.6 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1281…8d51backed Yes | 60c | 333.63$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.61 | 35 | 37.1%13 W · 22 L | -3.6wins | -0.10per pick | 47cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6dce…4490backed No | 18c | 290$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.1 | 44 | 45.5%20 W · 24 L | +5.9wins | +0.13per pick | 32cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf8b5…ddf2backed Yes | 75c | 284.84$214 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.19 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46f0…fe05backed No | 18c | 265.54$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.61 | 58 | 17.2%10 W · 48 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -43.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a4c…d411backed No | 24c | 250$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.5 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x714f…66d5backed No | 19c | 250$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.23 | 110 | 20.9%23 W · 87 L | -6.3wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed No | 22c | 249.99$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.65 | 241 | 10.8%26 W · 215 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -34%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf10f…004dbacked No | 32c | 248.7$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79 | 40 | 37.5%15 W · 25 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3020…d641backed No | 19c | 239.47$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -1.3wins | -0.09per pick | 16cpaid | -81.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 12c | 234.94$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.44 | 563 | 14.6%82 W · 481 L | -39.3wins | -0.07per pick | 22cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0d0f…57d9backed No | 14c | 221.58$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.02 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d22…d039backed No | 30c | 214.77$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.85 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7022…f64ebacked No | 11c | 212$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.27 | 58 | 37.9%22 W · 36 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd5b9…e44ebacked No | 44c | 200$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88 | 67 | 41.8%28 W · 39 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8196…ab69backed Yes | 78c | 188.6$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.79 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +1.2wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +37.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1087…8f8dbacked No | 30c | 173.03$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.91 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaed5…5523backed No | 19c | 157.89$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1016…c866backed Yes | 77c | 145.8$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.9 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.9wins | -0.27per pick | 41cpaid | -81.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd8a2…477cbacked No | 12c | 140.22$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.74 | 19 | 10.5%2 W · 17 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 8cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2aa0…3895backed No | 18c | 140$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.2 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +2.2wins | +0.19per pick | 56cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4cde…f6c6backed No | 29c | 136.57$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x083f…a55fbacked No | 16c | 122.6$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38f5…6824backed No | 27c | 121$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.02 | 35 | 37.1%13 W · 22 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 40c | 120.39$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.23 | 168 | 34.5%58 W · 110 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed No | 27c | 117.04$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.17 | 142 | 50%71 W · 71 L | +6.0wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe947…7a45backed No | 61c | 114.51$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.85 | 170 | 44.1%75 W · 95 L | -6.3wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeacd…8143backed No | 10c | 110$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 52 | 30.8%16 W · 36 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 25cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3a4f…829ebacked No | 36c | 105$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.45 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +23.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd2dc…223ebacked No | 26c | 100.98$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.54 | 37 | 35.1%13 W · 24 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f81…d260backed No | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 30 | 36.7%11 W · 19 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -17%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x056c…5066backed No | 12c | 91.66$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | -3.0wins | -0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -66.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…f17abacked Yes | 40c | 91.31$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.78 | 27 | 77.8%21 W · 6 L | +13.2wins | +0.49per pick | 29cpaid | +167.8%equal weight | 78+0.25 edge/pick |
| 0x8975…ffe6backed Yes | 72c | 89.21$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.21 | 110 | 69.1%76 W · 34 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 16c | 85$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.79 | 182 | 46.2%84 W · 98 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb50…7bfcbacked No | 28c | 75.58$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.95 | 89 | 43.8%39 W · 50 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4575…9628backed No | 23c | 74.21$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.76 | 33 | 39.4%13 W · 20 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed No | 30c | 72.38$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.61 | 449 | 21.2%95 W · 354 L | -21.7wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xafc1…31bebacked No | 19c | 67.71$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.16 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +2.7wins | +0.23per pick | 44cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9211…07a5backed No | 22c | 66.81$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7616…69eebacked No | 18c | 65.56$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 54 | 31.5%17 W · 37 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb89f…1c44backed Yes | 68c | 58.8$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.82 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +2.2wins | +0.11per pick | 36cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf7fe…1e42backed No | 27c | 56.91$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.58 | 57 | 64.9%37 W · 20 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fc…51acbacked No | 28c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -55%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01e7…89b4backed No | 29c | 41$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.75 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -1.6wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4cc0…8100backed No | 30c | 40.03$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -2.3wins | -0.18per pick | 25cpaid | -87.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1b17…1713backed Yes | 75c | 26.69$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.69 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -2.5wins | -0.20per pick | 27cpaid | -89.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x98d9…2c8cbacked No | 69c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 35 | 34.3%12 W · 23 L | -8.2wins | -0.23per pick | 58cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 35-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x0c31…9b89backed Yes | 76c | 17.11$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.11 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.