World Politics · resolved market
Will Yoon Suk Yeol be sentenced to 15–20 years in prison?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd588e540a782bc46a27d0886dc0eb613d63109ba0fe9ef0634b66c6d8b8ebad8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $569,899
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $259,383
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $569,899 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 59 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x23e8…6eb7backed Yes | 0c | 50,598$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.2 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x305d…54afbacked Yes | 1c | 39,934$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214.92 | 31 | 12.9%4 W · 27 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1199…d5f9backed Yes | 0c | 31,902$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.65 | 14 | 0%0 W · 14 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1859…fc9cbacked Yes | 0c | 20,931$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.98 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -67.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46f0…fe05backed Yes | 0c | 17,547$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.46 | 58 | 17.2%10 W · 48 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -43.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc4c5…dfe0backed Yes | 0c | 17,317$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.32 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 6cpaid | -50.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf7…2e27backed Yes | 0c | 12,856$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.78 | 166 | 4.2%7 W · 159 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe231…4e3ebacked Yes | 0c | 11,175$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.53 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 1c | 10,320$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.62 | 234 | 4.3%10 W · 224 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf6b7…8999backed Yes | 1c | 10,301$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.29 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0218…52c0backed Yes | 1c | 10,187$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.44 | 55 | 9.1%5 W · 50 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | +54.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x874b…b707backed Yes | 1c | 10,080$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.17 | 20 | 10%2 W · 18 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | -48.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcad4…1a4cbacked Yes | 0c | 7,828$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.56 | 83 | 30.1%25 W · 58 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3782…a22fbacked Yes | 0c | 7,306$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe840…6a63backed Yes | 0c | 7,306$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd2bd…2dfcbacked Yes | 0c | 7,306$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.92 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x38a4…4ef2backed Yes | 1c | 6,244$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.39 | 37 | 10.8%4 W · 33 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 8cpaid | +67.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1bbe…65c8backed Yes | 1c | 5,753$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab44…a5b9backed Yes | 0c | 5,500$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes | 0c | 5,023$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.52 | 688 | 3.6%25 W · 663 L | -9.5wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -59.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed Yes | 1c | 4,733$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.78 | 169 | 1.8%3 W · 166 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd2a…f10dbacked Yes | 1c | 4,607$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.03 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4aa2…8351backed Yes | 1c | 4,607$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.03 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.22per pick | 28cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1134…90f1backed Yes | 1c | 4,607$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.03 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9baa…b8a2backed Yes | 0c | 4,344$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.38 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.22per pick | 28cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 1c | 3,821$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 254 | 3.5%9 W · 245 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -50.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x484b…7f69backed Yes | 0c | 3,801$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe061…93f9backed Yes | 1c | 3,786$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.96 | 115 | 2.6%3 W · 112 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -47%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ef0…128bbacked Yes | 0c | 3,741$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…4d2dbacked Yes | 1c | 3,716$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.6 | 77 | 2.6%2 W · 75 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -64.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed22…b2dcbacked Yes | 0c | 3,565$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.69 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfee5…1cd0backed Yes | 0c | 3,505$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.02 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9787…26b5backed Yes | 3c | 3,387$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c49…ca9dbacked Yes | 1c | 3,108$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.4 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 1c | 3,034$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.88 | 1,431 | 10.1%145 W · 1,286 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 1c | 3,002$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.78 | 211 | 7.1%15 W · 196 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 5cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0940…578ebacked Yes | 0c | 2,962$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.85 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f87…6458backed Yes | 1c | 2,732$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.66 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x97aa…9faebacked Yes | 1c | 2,693$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.46 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc3e…7304backed Yes | 1c | 2,670$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb66…fbbfbacked Yes | 1c | 2,593$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.98 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x27d1…43a0backed Yes | 8c | 2,508$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -1.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf9a6…5715backed Yes | 1c | 2,503$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd756…a65abacked Yes | 0c | 2,500$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e75…03c6backed Yes | 1c | 2,403$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e9b…eff8backed Yes | 1c | 2,296$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.48 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 7cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbf2…887dbacked Yes | 0c | 2,296$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.49 | 80 | 3.8%3 W · 77 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked Yes | 1c | 2,294$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.91 | 49 | 16.3%8 W · 41 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -48.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5081…a309backed Yes | 1c | 2,282$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.64 | 80 | 6.3%5 W · 75 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 5cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90b6…a1b0backed Yes | 1c | 2,100$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.1 | 44 | 25%11 W · 33 L | +3.1wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4e60…da40backed Yes | 1c | 1,800$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 32 | 18.8%6 W · 26 L | -2.0wins | -0.06per pick | 25cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x01e7…89b4backed Yes | 1c | 1,741$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.39 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -1.6wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x83cc…3bcdbacked Yes | 1c | 1,500$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x230f…000fbacked Yes | 1c | 1,215$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x15d7…2921backed Yes | 3c | 759.34$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 15cpaid | -87.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x40fb…37d1backed Yes | 2c | 637.76$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cea…f32abacked Yes | 12c | 511.05$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 51 | 17.6%9 W · 42 L | -2.4wins | -0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 5c | 500$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 457 | 23.2%106 W · 351 L | -15.8wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -35%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x17a5…e00abacked Yes | 5c | 500$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 24 | 16.7%4 W · 20 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -59.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Yoon Suk Yeol be sentenced to 15–20 years in prison?this page
- Will Yoon Suk Yeol be sentenced to 10–15 years in prison?No won
- Will Yoon Suk Yeol be sentenced to 20–30 years in prison?No won
- Will Yoon Suk Yeol be sentenced to 5–10 years in prison?No won
- Will Yoon Suk Yeol be sentenced to at least 30 years in prison?Yes won
- Will Yoon Suk Yeol be sentenced to less than 5 years in prison?No won
- Will Yoon Suk Yeol be sentenced to no prison time?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.