TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

AI · resolved market

Will a Chinese AI model become #1 in 2025?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$268,210
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$268,319

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $268,210 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 126 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in AI
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x978e…80bcbacked Yes8c18,161$1,419 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,418.59250%0 W · 25 L-2.3wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x60f5…6a2bbacked Yes12c11,406$1,383 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,382.7620%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes5c9,212$506 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$505.5819011.6%22 W · 168 L-0.4wins0.00per pick12cpaid-58.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9cd7…9c85backed Yes8c8,191$683 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$682.594235.7%15 W · 27 L-2.8wins-0.07per pick42cpaid-12.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x30f9…fbfcbacked Yes10c7,236$705 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$705.2524315.2%37 W · 206 L+7.0wins+0.03per pick12cpaid+4.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x07d4…8991backed Yes1c5,400$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$706291.3%8 W · 621 L-7.1wins-0.01per pick2cpaid-88.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf5d1…67ccbacked Yes11c5,256$602 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$601.833342.4%14 W · 19 L-1.4wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-28.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2292…304ebacked Yes3c4,506$149 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$148.5620%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xae23…142ebacked Yes12c4,500$524 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$524.475822.4%13 W · 45 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick21cpaid-0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4b92…42e6backed Yes9c4,459$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$399.651650%8 W · 8 L+2.3wins+0.14per pick36cpaid+0.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x551e…b0e0backed Yes10c4,256$438 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$437.53922.2%2 W · 7 L-0.8wins-0.09per pick31cpaid+11.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd347…5205backed Yes10c3,864$386 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$385.52528%7 W · 18 L-1.4wins-0.06per pick34cpaid-32.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1574…ad8fbacked Yes9c3,506$325 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$324.781118.2%2 W · 9 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick22cpaid-51.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x814d…b842backed Yes7c2,905$198 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$197.752313%3 W · 20 L-3.7wins-0.16per pick29cpaid-77.8%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x132f…0e6ebacked Yes11c2,867$315 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$315.3650%0 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Yes6c2,811$170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$169.726145.9%28 W · 33 L+1.7wins+0.03per pick43cpaid-16.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa6a3…5532backed Yes15c2,764$420 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$419.83333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.09per pick24cpaid-34.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6f0b…956abacked Yes14c2,503$359 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$358.62666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.9wins+0.31per pick35cpaid+61%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xd733…38cabacked Yes9c2,343$221 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$221.26333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.11per pick44cpaid-52.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x09fe…76eebacked Yes8c2,329$182 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$182.321346.2%6 W · 7 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-30.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa02f…e4b1backed Yes13c2,000$267 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$266.832846.4%13 W · 15 L+3.5wins+0.13per pick34cpaid+43.3%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xb07d…23dcbacked Yes13c1,419$184 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$184.446829.4%20 W · 48 L+6.0wins+0.09per pick21cpaid-13.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x75a3…5fd5backed Yes10c1,397$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$139.6710%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcf95…7865backed Yes8c1,200$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9818323%42 W · 141 L-4.6wins-0.03per pick25cpaid-35.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x28ca…5d19backed Yes5c1,128$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.414228.6%12 W · 30 L-1.7wins-0.04per pick33cpaid-32.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa8b7…ee3cbacked Yes8c1,045$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.33128.3%1 W · 11 L-1.8wins-0.15per pick23cpaid-84.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x3989…27b1backed Yes12c1,042$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$125.08650%3 W · 3 L+1.3wins+0.22per pick28cpaid+32.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc412…592dbacked Yes9c1,000$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$904037.5%15 W · 25 L+2.8wins+0.07per pick30cpaid-5.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6f48…3154backed Yes8c999.99$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8070%0 W · 7 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa5bf…15bdbacked Yes9c999.99$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90250%1 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.41per pick9cpaid+503.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa0ac…c2aabacked Yes14c999.99$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$140425%1 W · 3 L0.0wins+0.01per pick24cpaid-57.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2032…23f7backed Yes8c771.79$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.742321.7%5 W · 18 L+1.3wins+0.05per pick16cpaid-25%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes6c760.84$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.2557426.8%154 W · 420 L-11.5wins-0.02per pick29cpaid-45.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x098b…8dbebacked Yes9c750$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.23per pick27cpaid+13.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf2c0…2510backed Yes10c710.55$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7050%0 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2916…752abacked Yes13c700.87$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.43714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.9wins-0.13per pick27cpaid-69.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7ae0…25e5backed Yes14c700$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9850%0 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7272…a67dbacked Yes14c697.62$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100540%2 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick36cpaid-27.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3244…5b5dbacked Yes15c673.33$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0702…d5f9backed Yes10c663.99$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.242552%13 W · 12 L+2.5wins+0.10per pick42cpaid+25.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xa815…9cbebacked Yes4c660.1$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.962674.9%13 W · 254 L-3.2wins-0.01per pick6cpaid-36.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x038b…afc4backed Yes16c610.2$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.471040%4 W · 6 L+0.8wins+0.08per pick32cpaid+92.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7401…b460backed Yes10c559.29$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55812.5%1 W · 7 L-1.5wins-0.19per pick31cpaid-79.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x14bc…aa14backed Yes18c544.62$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10020%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6fcd…0c32backed Yes2c534$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.28540%2 W · 3 L+0.9wins+0.19per pick21cpaid+28%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb943…777dbacked Yes11c527.86$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6020%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdb40…3612backed Yes6c500$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$305612.5%7 W · 49 L-1.5wins-0.03per pick15cpaid-68.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8f7a…db40backed Yes15c500$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$754619.6%9 W · 37 L-1.2wins-0.03per pick22cpaid-22.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcc3e…37efbacked Yes13c500$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$652133.3%7 W · 14 L+1.0wins+0.05per pick29cpaid-42.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xefde…783dbacked Yes13c490.65$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.7812636.5%46 W · 80 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-15.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb4f2…554fbacked Yes11c460$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.6922.2%2 W · 7 L-1.0wins-0.11per pick33cpaid-70.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x68d1…3c4dbacked Yes7c457$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.998150.6%41 W · 40 L+6.5wins+0.08per pick43cpaid-10.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x96e0…b648backed Yes13c449.98$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.54316.3%7 W · 36 L-2.8wins-0.07per pick23cpaid-61.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x4b0b…3f0bbacked Yes9c442.49$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.043135.5%11 W · 20 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-14%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb3e8…e81fbacked Yes11c435.67$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50175.9%1 W · 16 L-2.3wins-0.14per pick20cpaid-74.4%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xfa19…fb67backed Yes14c414.58$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.912015%3 W · 17 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick16cpaid-60.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc5d4…08fcbacked Yes8c399.99$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$322040%8 W · 12 L+1.0wins+0.05per pick35cpaid-28.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3896…ece6backed Yes13c375$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$504247.6%20 W · 22 L+4.5wins+0.11per pick37cpaid+14.9%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xe633…c0febacked Yes12c353.35$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$444934.7%17 W · 32 L+1.8wins+0.04per pick31cpaid-12.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x04dc…2387backed Yes10c351$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.112839.8%51 W · 77 L+4.3wins+0.03per pick37cpaid-16.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5b75…433bbacked Yes8c339$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.133135.5%11 W · 20 L-4.0wins-0.13per pick48cpaid-46.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x7ed6…32a0backed Yes9c333.33$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3020%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd807…d95fbacked Yes10c307.78$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.1wins+0.37per pick30cpaid+93.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc3cd…816cbacked Yes10c300$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$298923.6%21 W · 68 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick23cpaid-8.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x174a…930abacked Yes10c297.8$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.5810%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9fe6…4fa3backed Yes10c286.8$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.63520%1 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.10per pick30cpaid-69.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x02e6…c14ebacked Yes17c251$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.4650%0 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc434…7003backed Yes8c250$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20166.3%1 W · 15 L-4.0wins-0.25per pick31cpaid-71.6%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x9833…0b32backed Yes13c249.3$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.39520%1 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.14per pick34cpaid-65%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc6ed…6609backed Yes10c230$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.550%0 W · 5 L-1.1wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x52ca…f294backed Yes9c222.22$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201010%1 W · 9 L-0.7wins-0.07per pick17cpaid-87.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3ef2…f85ebacked Yes9c222.22$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2030%0 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd509…cd82backed Yes7c214.29$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1530%0 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x01e7…89b4backed Yes7c207.69$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.424729.8%14 W · 33 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick29cpaid-32%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2ee3…4ca0backed Yes22c206.73$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.3870%0 W · 7 L-1.0wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1633…190cbacked Yes13c200$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$262147.6%10 W · 11 L+1.8wins+0.08per pick39cpaid-5.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe137…3f2cbacked Yes12c200$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2450%0 W · 5 L-1.2wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6349…2a82backed Yes11c200$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$221030%3 W · 7 L+1.4wins+0.14per pick16cpaid-10.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x98e8…ab20backed Yes8c200$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$162821.4%6 W · 22 L-1.2wins-0.04per pick26cpaid-56.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe86e…8642backed Yes11c199.1$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22119.1%1 W · 10 L-1.1wins-0.10per pick19cpaid-74.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x97b2…7b39backed Yes10c199$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.910%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x601b…42b7backed Yes10c193.77$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.8810%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3513…c19dbacked Yes10c180$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1820%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa4b3…87b8backed Yes11c180$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.81844.4%8 W · 10 L+1.1wins+0.06per pick39cpaid-19.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xcb09…0812backed Yes11c177$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.95425%1 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.06per pick31cpaid-61.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8676…79abbacked Yes12c175$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2160%0 W · 6 L-0.7wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x952c…be27backed Yes11c172.73$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1930%0 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf48f…181cbacked Yes9c170$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.6475%3 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.15per pick60cpaid-2.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc9aa…e347backed Yes13c153.85$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20190%0 W · 19 L-3.2wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x5957…52d3backed Yes7c143$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.0140%0 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf6cc…f848backed Yes14c142.86$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201428.6%4 W · 10 L-1.2wins-0.08per pick37cpaid-61%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb5a3…af12backed Yes14c142.02$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x48d4…2e55backed Yes15c140$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2110%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe158…9d56backed Yes17c119.12$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20137.7%1 W · 12 L-2.1wins-0.16per pick24cpaid-88.7%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xb40d…e3acbacked Yes15c113.09$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.52366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.1wins+0.36per pick31cpaid+80.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x99bc…4f35backed No80c110.95$89 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.1920731.9%66 W · 141 L+4.4wins+0.02per pick30cpaid-6.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0ae2…d5aabacked No21c109.27$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$86.111100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.79per pick21cpaid+371.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7050…b4fabacked Yes14c107.14$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15650%3 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.07per pick43cpaid-27.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x98a5…5638backed Yes19c105.26$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.12per pick45cpaid-43.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x54b5…4b31backed Yes10c104.23$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.426839.7%27 W · 41 L+4.4wins+0.06per pick33cpaid-6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.